Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 I was posting in the mid atl forum there were some big shifts in the short term in the 0z nam run vs 18z. ULL about 75 miles farther S and a little faster. Ridging in E Canada flexing and forcing the sw to try and pass farther South of the region. Low is bombing out and going negative at 84hrs. I can only imagine later panels. 700 frontogenic lifting is off the charts and signaling major ccb banding development. But alas, too much detail for the 84hr panel. Just know there were some positive shifts in the shorter term on this run that yielded what seems to be a SECS/MECS development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 hours ago, RedSky said: Estimate is I will be without power for four more days I am so not into another storm That's blasphemy around these parts! Just kidding...any relatives? maybe Hotel? Friends to stay with? Edit: My mistake, just reread and seen you were able to borrow a generator...good stuff! I posted too quickly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 0z GFS continues the positive ticks.....now has a good portion of SE PA 6-10" for midweek system. You can see better flexing of the neg NAO and a faster handoff which in turn allows for a slightly slower moving system. GFS was way too warm for last system so keep that in mind. It shows a start as rain before rapidly deepening the lp and throwing the ccb deformation banding across SE PA allowing for dynamic cooling. Didnt show the dynamic cooling yesterday at all so I am leaning towards less plain rain that the GFS is showing and more overall snow which would be inline with the Euro and GGEM. NAM would likely fall inline with the Euro as well if it ran to 90+ hrs. Another EE rule system falling in place?Btw I hope Iceman hasnt lost power. Odd he is MIA with this threat rapidly emerging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 weenies are crashing tidbits for cripes sake you think they havent seen snow before Man March snow is the worst snow it sucks, yesteday's snow is a few patches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Ggem is 6-12+ most of SE PA. MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Generators suck too this one i got off somebody must have a half gallon tank it runs one hour lol, so model time is a premium for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Most of Bucks Co looks like 10-16" on the GGEM.....tough to make out on the old black and white charts. Big hit regardless. RedSky you look to be on higher end of those totals fyi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Most of Bucks Co looks like 10-16" on the GGEM.....tough to male out on the old black and white charts. Big hit regardless. that means no power for 10 days lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 btw March 12th is a tick away from making it back to back to back snows. I hope PPL gets me power by the 3rd storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 30 minutes ago, RedSky said: weenies are crashing tidbits for cripes sake you think they havent seen snow before Man March snow is the worst snow it sucks, yesteday's snow is a few patches March snows are my least favorite because of this and the texture...still cool but not as cool as Dec-Jan-early Feb. Modify-ghetto-rig (red neck) your generators gasoline capacity...it's very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: March snows are my least favorite because of this and the texture...still cool but not as cool as Dec-Jan-early Feb. Modify-ghetto-rig (red neck) your generators gasoline capacity...it's very possible. I could see that with a 5 gallon tank i may blow it all up though but it would warm for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, RedSky said: I could see that with a 5 gallon tank i may blow it all up though but it would warm for a bit Many videos on YouTube w/your gas capacity problem w/solutions. Some are "red neck" and kinda funny..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 4 hours ago, RedSky said: Generators suck too this one i got off somebody must have a half gallon tank it runs one hour lol, so model time is a premium for me Gotta have power for model time, lol. There is always the car option, heated space, plug your phone in for charging, etc. Speaking from experience :). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 0Z GEFS about as consistent as you will see irt midweek. Uptick for SE PA again with precip, perfect track, tight member clustering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 0z GEPS also came West with clustering quite a bit vs 12z and also increased precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Biggest fear now is Iceman's EE rule (Euro/NAM) which states never go against that combo when they agree. 0z Euro and 6z NAM took steps back with neither capturing the system now and allowing an escape East. Neither gets hardly any precip into SE PA at all this run. Definitely raises an eyebrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 NAVGEM trend in lp location past 4 runs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Euro/NAM vs GFS/GGEM/NAVGEM/UKMETEE rule will really be put to the test with this one. The former have been bouncing around quite a bit back and forth.......the latter have been extremely consistent save for the NAVGEM which has been moving closer W towards a capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Wont stick a fork in it yet but 6z suite clearly bucked the positive trends we were seeing for Wednesday. GEFS still consistent and precip totals havent budged but nearly everything else seems to have stepped back and shifted things farther NE in typical Miller B fashion. 3 days to go tho, not bailing on snowfall yet. Just definitely seem to have backed down from a major threat for now. Maybe another nickel and dime event? Lets hope next few runs say this is just a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Wow this is hilarious. Last couple events you totally downplayed like they were nothing an they overperformed. Now this event you been hyping how good it looked yesterday an how it could be biggest of winter. An now it looks like a miss. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 People are starting to lose it here. I'm going out to buy a generator with a 25gal tank... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Wait wut no storm lol- im in fookin limbo in the sticks no verizon or phone data, more info please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 11 minutes ago, RedSky said: Wait wut no storm lol- im in fookin limbo in the sticks no verizon or phone data, more info please It's wishy-washy right now...although MA forum is going a bit nuts over the GFS which probably bolds well for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Interesting vortmax , upper level trough passing through tonight. Wind gusts are already picking up, felt like 40+ gust just now and the worst should arrive tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I got back from the Flower Show about an hour and a half ago and my usual route down into and through Mt. Airy to and along Lincoln Dr., was like a war zone. Huge trees down across major streets and intersections with nothing more than some yellow tape around them and some orange cones closing the street. Many traffic lights out (fully or partially). I saw electric and telephone poles snapped, and saw one PECO crew working on a pole where the "T" at the top had snapped cleanly from the rest of the pole and was dangling on the wires. I don't think I remember it being this bad during the '94 ice storms, where there was more branch litter vs this with whole trees uprooted. It was more like Hurricane/TS damage similar to what happened from Isabel, and notably Irene, where there was similar antecedent wet ground, and trees were toppled and dominoed down a line. Could add some Sandy in there too, with the gusts. The wet snow on the bare branches seemed to act almost like a "tree canopy" might in the summer/fall during hurricanes, and made it too much for the trees to stand. I don't know what the heck is going to happen if another round comes through as is progged. As it is, the rush hour tomorrow is going to be a friggin' nightmare along that stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 hours ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said: Interesting vortmax , upper level trough passing through tonight. Wind gusts are already picking up, felt like 40+ gust just now and the worst should arrive tonight. Just ready to mention this...gust have really picked up in the last 1-2hours. I was ready to take a walk and the winds were/are gusting...screw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 It is refreshing that we are into March and not only still tracking, but looking at a pattern which could produce a couple of the most intense storms of the season. We already had #1 on March 2. Possible #2 March 7. Possible #3 (Archambault NAO flipper?) centered around March 13. Already above seasonal avg here. Everything else is gravy now. Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Next weekend Archambault on gfs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Not worth deep discussion 'yet' but for kicks and giggles GFS snowfall is fairly wide 1-3' totals for next week with NW areas jackpotting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not worth deep discussion 'yet' but for kicks and giggles GFS snowfall is fairly wide 1-3' totals for next week with NW areas jackpotting. More hyped for this rather than Wednesday's storm. If that holds. Winter will go out with a bang as temps look to surge after the 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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