Birdbean Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 36 minutes ago, Newman said: Lol Berks screwed again like yesterday on the 12z Euro. All I want is 3 more inches to get to normal. It's getting frustrating nearing the end of winter with likely only 2 chances left. Same with Lancaster Co. as I enjoyed my flurries yesterday. This has been the worst winter for snow in awhile. I'm putting my snowblower away today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 32 minutes ago, Birdbean said: Same with Lancaster Co. as I enjoyed my flurries yesterday. This has been the worst winter for snow in awhile. I'm putting my snowblower away today. That might just work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 NAM has light snow already into parts of the region by 11PM Tuesday fwiw. Looks to try and phase the GL energy quicker which imo means a more tucked in coastal lp if the NAM went out longer. Would likely be a fairly good hit imo....it would have gone boom between 90-96 but thats just my $.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Another big key on the NAM in the shorter term, the primary doesnt get nearly as far N thanks to blocking AND is weaker plus transfers/quicker. The good trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Made a new thread for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Made a new thread for it.Wish Iceman had started it with the hot hand but wishing you good luck and mojo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 This is probably the most legit MECS threat in this short of a range we have had all season. Hoping the trends hold steady or even improve slightly. Climo says this could also be our last, tho some LR guidance suggests otherwise. We take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Newman said: Lol Berks screwed again like yesterday on the 12z Euro. All I want is 3 more inches to get to normal. It's getting frustrating nearing the end of winter with likely only 2 chances left. Monmouth County Jackpot, so book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Miller B, watch for the screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Miller B, watch for the screw zone.Inevitable but looks farther S than usual for this one. Could be a rare situation where the blocking helps us out a fair amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 49 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 56 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: Miller B, watch for the screw zone. Inevitable but looks farther S than usual for this one. Could be a rare situation where the blocking helps us out a fair amount. Being in Lower Bucks County, I do well with Miller B's, Newman on the other hand will be seething. Edit: You'll be fine too, I saw a post in the NYC forum mentioing that Mt Holly was bullish with this...fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 18z GFS basically held status quo.....no major shifts for or against. H5 maybe took a hair of a step back but likely noise. LP still develops near OBX. Not worth much discussion at this range but gradient cutoff sharp as is typical with Miller Bs. Bumped my area from 7" at 12z to 10" at 18z. We take ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: EPS control is sweet as well. Woof....honk Not to be a debbie downer but just a small 50-75 mile swing leaves most of the Philly area with nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Not to be a debbie downer but just a small 50-75 mile swing leaves most of the Philly area with nothingAnd a 75 mile shift the other way is a MECS/HECS. Like I said earlier, my concern 'right now' is that this tucks too tight to the coast and doesnt deepen quickly enough to allow for dynamics to take over which would favor farther NW burbs. Of course it trend towards a typical Miller B where as u said Philly gets shafted, but again 'right now' based on the blocking and how yesterdays storm trended a little colder and got forced south I think we might be in a decent spot with this next threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Really shocked quite honestly on how quiet it is in here with the biggest threat of the season on our doorsteps. 300,000 folks around the area are still without power and I know some are on this board too (including yourself?). I saw that Delco issued an emergency declaration. I am hoping that the power holds where I am. My electric is underground but it does eventually come out to poles to get to a substation somewhere and I am right along some woods. If anything is gonna happen, this is the peak period with the NAO, to do it - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Amazing trends on the EPS. Really shocked quite honestly on how quiet it is in here with the biggest threat of the season on our doorsteps. I'm pumped but it's a "March storm" which usually means sloppy snow which melts in a day or two. Yesterdays snow is 75% gone and it wasn't even that warm today. If we had this setup in Jan/early Feb with cold air to follow...oh man, that's the shiet! Also, some people (not me!) start to kick into "Spring mode". All and all I'm pumped and timing should be better for this one potentially which may require an all-nighter.....I'm in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 18z GEFS tighter clustering and holds steady. Really couldnt ask for a much better look tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 I'm pumped but it's a "March storm" which usually means sloppy snow which melts in a day or two. Yesterdays snow is 75% gone and it wasn't even that warm today. If we had this setup in Jan/early Feb with cold air to follow...oh man, that's the shiet! Also, some people (not me!) start to kick into "Spring mode". All and all I'm pumped and timing should be better for this one potentially which may require an all-nighter.....I'm in!I see January snow as more "sloppy" because the snow cover lasts (which is nice) but also has more time to pickup dirt, etc. I despise snow that has become black with road sand, car fluids, exhaust, etc. Dont get me wrong, I take it whenever it falls. I am just more of a fan seeing it coming down than having to shovel it and watch it collect dirt. The almost 5" we got yesterday was perfect as it is almost all melted today AND I didnt have to lift a finger to 'manicure' my sidewalk, driveway, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Nice uptick in precip totals in SE PA on the GEFS past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 10 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I'm pumped but it's a "March storm" which usually means sloppy snow which melts in a day or two. Yesterdays snow is 75% gone and it wasn't even that warm today. If we had this setup in Jan/early Feb with cold air to follow...oh man, that's the shiet! Also, some people (not me!) start to kick into "Spring mode". All and all I'm pumped and timing should be better for this one potentially which may require an all-nighter.....I'm in! I see January snow as more "sloppy" because the snow cover lasts (which is nice) but also has more time to pickup dirt, etc. I despise snow that has become black with road sand, car fluids, exhaust, etc. Dont get me wrong, I take it whenever it falls. I am just more of a fan seeing it coming down than having to shovel it and watch it collect dirt. I mean sloppy as in super wet where you step and it splashes rather than "crunch". But I know what you mean by dirty snow...snow has a shelf life. Either way, I'm ready for another pasting....this could be a PECO nightmare although super OT for the workers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Estimate is I will be without power for four more days I am so not into another storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Btw, it look as per LR ens that our Archambault event is coming into focus now and popping up between March 11-15 basically centered around the 13th. NAO flips from neg to pos and there are strong signals on widespread guidance for a potent storm in the East. No idea if this is snow for the cities at this range but would think climo favors elevated NW areas for now. But when we start seeing sub 980 lows popping up on the ops bowling across the Southern US and headed into the SE and off/up the coast this far out fairly consistently, it is a period that needs to be watched. Thereafter when the NAO flips positive and ridging develops in the SE with a trof out West it looks like a safe bet that is probably our finale for the season. So next 12 days have some threats with winter not over yet for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, RedSky said: Estimate is I will be without power for four more days I am so not into another storm Wanna borrow my generator? I imagine they may be in short supply right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Btw, it look as per LR ens that our Archambault event is coming into focus now and popping up between March 11-15 basically centered around the 13th. NAO flips from neg to pos and there are strong signals on widespread guidance for a potent storm in the East. No idea if this is snow for the cities at this range but would think climo favors elevated NW areas for now. But when we start seeing sub 980 lows popping up on the ops bowling across the Southern US and headed into the SE and off/up the coast this far out fairly consistently, it is a period that needs to be watched. Thereafter when the NAO flips positive and ridging develops in the SE with a trof out West it looks like a safe bet that is probably our finale for the season. So next 12 days have some threats with winter not over yet for many. I'm in, always am, and have been interested in this period for a while. I will admit to basking in the afterglow of yesterday to a decent extent today, but Wednesday does have potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 28 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Wanna borrow my generator? I imagine they may be in short supply right now. Generous offer I did get my hands on one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, RedSky said: Generous offer I did get my hands on one Ok cool - good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 5 hours ago, Newman said: Lol Berks screwed again like yesterday on the 12z Euro. All I want is 3 more inches to get to normal. It's getting frustrating nearing the end of winter with likely only 2 chances left. Nah - that is only the operational run....can never go by just that...many members have a big hit for Berks and west. All that matters is the low placement...QPF is just noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 I had no idea a big snowstorm was likely coming until 30 minutes ago. Phone stopped transmitting data might be the nearest tower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 5 hours ago, Newman said: Lol Berks screwed again like yesterday on the 12z Euro. All I want is 3 more inches to get to normal. It's getting frustrating nearing the end of winter with likely only 2 chances left. No way this can happen twice within a week, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Snow totals for 2017/18 season to date updated for NW Chester County PA - see signature for details The 28.7" we have received so far is only 2.9" below our normal snowfall to date (1983 to Present) The pattern for additional snow over the next couple weeks is looking pretty good so I am growing increasingly confident we may end up with our 4th above normal snowfall season here in NW Chester County in the last 5 winter seasons. The only exception to above normal snowfall in the last 5 winter seasons was 2016-17 when only 24.0" fell which is 12.2" below our normal snowfall of 36.2". This is my 15th winter season here in East Nantmeal...not surprisingly in the 14 winters here 7 have been above normal snowfall and 7 have been below normal. Our normal March snowfall is 5.2" and April is 1.0". My forecast for the season for East Nantmeal Township was 50" which I published back at the end of November in the local Township newsletter....I will clearly fail on my forecast as we will end nowhere close to that figure. Not surprisingly I have already received some emails over the last 2 weeks from some township residents reminding me about my poor forecast. That said I did note in my "fearless" forecast that the good folks in East Nantmeal should always rely on the professionals in Mount Holly to get the real forecast....this season just proved it yet again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.