Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 GFS really honking with a strong signal for next week. Been showing up on LR pattern looks and progs for like 2 weeks now and the ops are starting to see it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 GEFS are honking and mostly if not all individual members now on board for next week. Right where I like to see the lp at this range too on the mean. Guess we will see if there is truth that the GFS has overtaken "the king" over the next several days if not sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 wow now that is a bonafide threat. will be interesting to see what the euro does at 12z. cmc has something in this range too but just doesn't quite come together. that h5 look is a MECS no doubt, i don't care what the surface depiction is. we get that set up and this area will easily see a foot plus. this is by far the best threat this season imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just took a look at the 12z EPS mean and the 18z GEFS mean for our day 6-7 threat. Worlds apart. EPS says lets overamplify the sw in the midwest/GL while the GEFS says lets run that bowling ball sw under the block and off the mid Atlantic Coast as a long duration coastal storm threat for the region. Looking deeper into the EPS trying to get some hints as to what the EPS members are doing, there are very few, if any at all, that even attempt what the GEFS is doing. That is a bit discouraging. However, the GEFS have been rock steady past 4 runs or so and the clustering and overall idea among members is as unanimous in agreement as I ever recall seeing at a 6 day lead. Something has to give going forward. The pattern and blocking actually supports what the GEFS are doing, so there's that. Should be a fun week of tracking in any event. Keeping expectations tempered but I must say, if the GEFS have the right general idea with the ull pass to our South and a deepening low just off the Mid Atl Coast, there will be alot of happy people in this subforum. EPS (top) vs 18z GEFS (bottom) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Consistent threat continues to show up for Tues PM-Thursday of next week. This is the same period several of us were keying on as having potential and it doesnt look to disappoint. We can figure out specifics later but NAO block forces a bowling ball sw to the South redeveloping it Miller B style along the Coast. Should be far enough S to clearly impact most of the region and the trends actually favor farther S redevelopment. Storm rapidly intensifies and wraps in cold air. Models mixes on intensity and dynamics but potential exists for another heavy wet snowfall and I believe the odds are favorable. Need some Iceman mojo to start the thread for this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 CMC and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 6z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 6z NAVGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 12 NAVGEM came West.....high impact event now. Concern would be for a more tucked in to the coast system with N and W areas favored over the coastal plain but we'll see what happens. Looks like it might be an event where precipitation rates and Dynamics/vort pass once again play a critical role in determining who gets what and how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Nice job by the Wxsim with the last storm....just about spot on! Now for the next one - the WXSIM with 12z data has 6" to 8" of snow for NW Chester County from Tuesday late night through Wednesday. It will change...but something to keep an eye on. Mainly rain for now in my NWS P&C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Nice job by the Wxsim with the last storm....just about spot on! Now for the next one - the WXSIM with 12z data has 6" to 8" of snow for NW Chester County from Tuesday late night through Wednesday. It will change...but something to keep an eye on. Mainly rain for now in my NWS P&CGEM has roughly 16" for your area so those numbers u threw out there aren't far fetched at all and certainly in the realm of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 GEM has roughly 16" for your area so those numbers u threw out there aren't far fetched at all and certainly in the realm of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 12Z GEFS honking pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 12z Euro trended the right way. Decent hit....can't wait to see snow maps :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Could be another significant rain to snow event for a part of the region.....and I don't want to hear anything about midday sun angle. As long as rates are as heavy as progged we shall overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Hey I don't see that loop around my area like the last one, Lock it in Please I cant go through another debacle like yesterday That was painful to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Could be another significant rain to snow event for a part of the region.....and I don't want to hear anything about midday sun angle. As long as rates are as heavy as progged we shall overcome.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 .EPS should be eyebrow raising today :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 .Closer inspection: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Closer inspection:So a blend of the GGEM and Euro gives mby a foot of fresh snowpack. Certainly take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Even closer inspection (love this site!) for kicks and giggles: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Lol Berks screwed again like yesterday on the 12z Euro. All I want is 3 more inches to get to normal. It's getting frustrating nearing the end of winter with likely only 2 chances left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 EPS falling inline with a decent hit for parts of the region. Really nice look and development/location. Really good agreement now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Amazing trends on the EPS. Really shocked quite honestly on how quiet it is in here with the biggest threat of the season on our doorsteps. Maybe PHL nearby burbs gets their first warning event of the season?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 A fair amount of that on the EPS falls during the pre dawn hours Wed fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 EPS control is sweet as well.Woof....honk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Euro OP was a little further east than the EPS Mean. Looks like the CMC, GFS, and Euro are all in agreement that the northeast will get a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Indiv eps ens members are drool worthy. Many 1'+ hits even into SE PA. Very few misses, a few late bloomers. Biggest signal hit on eps are for NE PA. Almost every member has 18"+ with a few that show near 3' totals. Amazing run and trends!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 The only thing that worries me is that this is a Miller B. We all know how Miller B's usually perform around here. I would fear Late Bloomer over anything, however, I'll admit with the blocking in SE Canada, this thing is more likely to transfer in a favorable spot for a significant Philly-NYC-Boston SECS-MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 The only thing that worries me is that this is a Miller B. We all know how Miller B's usually perform around here. I would fear Late Bloomer over anything, however, I'll admit with the blocking in SE Canada, this thing is more likely to transfer in a favorable spot for a significant Philly-NYC-Boston SECS-MECS.Late bloomer always a concern with Miller Bs BUT as you said we finally have a neg NAO and favorable block position. And we are actually getting trends towards farther S development and transfer. Yesterdays storm did the same trending, dont see why this will be much different. Another plus is lead time is lessening.....90 hours out now on some guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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