Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 I just looked at the the ens for last night and while some deveop the full lat ridge, there are many others that don't...seems like there is pretty good consensus until we hit day 6/day 7 and then the models go bonkers. I can't say one way or another which way it is leaning but just that no one should have heavy emotions either way based on one model suite especially the next few days. The system that the 00z euro has literally could hit anywhere from vermont to SC...with so many shifting parts the models and ens just are not going to be useful in the LR right now because we are seeing a major pattern shift. I really don't even take a lot of stock in the ensembles either right now because if you look at the individual members, they are all over the place after day 6...so much so that a mean isn't the likely solution... now if the full lat ridge develops well then yeah game over, but I think we are days away from knowing either way that this pattern will be a dud or stud. Until we get closer and more details are refined, and the ensembles have some semblance of continuity, the next few days really are a crap shoot for the LR. What we dont want to see is a deep digging trof getting stuck in the SW which would raise heights in the central US pumping the ridge and trying to connect with the neg NAO ridging. That is one way we could get a full lat ridge and one of the solutions models are hinting at 6-7 days down the road. Overamping of the low at day 6-8 in the Plains or midwest is another no-no, tho as long as the 50/50 doesnt retrograde to the SW or get pulled off progressively to the E we could be ok. Like you said, expectations should be tempered. Alot more can go wrong than could go right imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 First threat signal centered near March 2 has the -NAO setting up shop, a 50/50, and a primary LP center in the midwest. Need to watch how strong and how far N that primary gets before 2ndary develops off the coast. With the NAO progs I see at that time, I would think it can only get so far N before redeveloping. CMC may actually have the right idea with the better 50/50 look as well, not saying it is correct verbatim. GFS is gung ho on linking the NAO ridge with a quasi SE Ridge that is in the W Atl. Euro is a compromise. Any threats or modeling after this period becomes way more muddled and alot is dependent on this first threat. Obviously N and W zones are favored more than the cities right now, but that will waffle back and forth......we are all in the game attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 1 hour ago, wkd said: Where do you find 500mb heights on individual panels of the ensembles? I can't find them on weatherbell. Edit: members, not panels I use weathermodels.com and stormvista so can't help ya there. You can get the GEFS individuals 500 mb though on the psu ewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: What we dont want to see is a deep digging trof getting stuck in the SW which would raise heights in the central US pumping the ridge and trying to connect with the neg NAO ridging. That is one way we could get a full lat ridge and one of the solutions models are hinting at 6-7 days down the road. Overamping of the low at day 6-8 in the Plains or midwest is another no-no, tho as long as the 50/50 doesnt retrograde to the SW or get pulled off progressively to the E we could be ok. Like you said, expectations should be tempered. Alot more can go wrong than could go right imho. How many times over the years have the models dig a trof in the SW and cut it off in the 7-10 day range only for it to not come to fruition. Happens much much more on the models than it ever verifies...at least in the 15 years or so I've been doing this. And when it does verify, the signs are usually there towards it occurring. This one doesn't really have that..it'd be an anomaly. That is why I really am not too concerned right now until the models show this inside of 5 days. I've seen it so many times where the OP models will cut off a trof in the SW and in turn it wrecks the pattern on the model run but it never actually verifies. Who knows, it could verify this time, but this is something that I've seen before in the past and most times it ends up being overblown. BTW winter patterns in general for this area often feature a lot more that can go wrong than go right even if we had a -NAO and +PNA. It is just the nature of climo here. I still see a lot of positives in this period and think our chance to score on a big storm is better starting next week than at any point this winter. It only takes one of these threats breaking our way with the blocking set up to see a big time event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 How many times over the years have the models dig a trof in the SW and cut it off in the 7-10 day range only for it to not come to fruition. Happens much much more on the models than it ever verifies...at least in the 15 years or so I've been doing this. And when it does verify, the signs are usually there towards it occurring. This one doesn't really have that..it'd be an anomaly. That is why I really am not too concerned right now until the models show this inside of 5 days. I've seen it so many times where the OP models will cut off a trof in the SW and in turn it wrecks the pattern on the model run but it never actually verifies. Who knows, it could verify this time, but this is something that I've seen before in the past and most times it ends up being overblown. BTW winter patterns in general for this area often feature a lot more that can go wrong than go right even if we had a -NAO and +PNA. It is just the nature of climo here. I still see a lot of positives in this period and think our chance to score on a big storm is better starting next week than at any point this winter. It only takes one of these threats breaking our way with the blocking set up to see a big time event.Trofs settling into the SW arent really all that uncommon at all actually. Not sure if you can pull verification stats on this or not, I would be curious to see. Isnt this similar to saying the -NAO wont sustain itself and will be transient because it just hasnt been a sustained feature since 2011? The argument could go both ways. Biggest features I am watching are the strength of the NAO block, the location of the block, and what the 50/50 decides to do after March 3. The former will play key roles in determining how that storm signal around March 2 unfolds as well as pattern thereafter. Obviously the PNA (sw trof?) could play a role in the pattern across N America as well irt any potential full lat ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 The changes from run to run on the ops are just silly as a few of us have alluded to happening until the pattern change resolves itself BUT the 12 gfs op has a much better scenario in the LR IF a full lat ridge in fact develops with that feature popping out West and bolstering a +PNA look. That is something I wouldnt mind locking into going forward. I wont even get into what is happening in our neck of the woods downstream of that feature. Just know we havent lost any chances in early March at all with several possibilities on the table. Eta: Nice look with the pna linking with the ao block while still leaving the neg NAO as a relatively separate entity. Will change in 6 noirs but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Trofs settling into the SW arent really all that uncommon at all actually. Not sure if you can pull verification stats on this or not, I would be curious to see. Isnt this similar to saying the -NAO wont sustain itself and will be transient because it just hasnt been a sustained feature since 2011? The argument could go both ways. Biggest features I am watching are the strength of the NAO block, the location of the block, and what the 50/50 decides to do. All will play key roles in determining how that storm signal around March 2 unfolds as well as pattern thereafter. Obviously the PNA (sw trof?) could play a role in the pattern across N America as well irt any potential full lat ridge. By anomaly I meant more that teleconnections really don't support it not that a SW trough is rare. The PNA looks to be rising towards neutral on the ensembles in the time frame the OP models are digging this deep trof in the SW. It just doesn't seem to match the ensembles predictions on the PNA at all. A trof in the SW like that is a -PNA trait and a -PNA that is tanking or that has already tanked, not heading towards neutral. We hover in negative(-1 SD so not highly anomalous) til the first and it looks like most ensembles want to take the PNA towards neutral after that so it doesn't fit a signal for a big deep trough in the SW imo. Even if that is correct, the -NAO would also have to keep pushing further west for full lat ridging to take place. It just seems to me that it needs just as many things to go right to happen as the event on the 2nd and beyond. My ultimate point though with the last two posts is that the models are going to be everywhere for a few days as they adjust to the new pattern and that the negative shifts in the LR are not a death knell by any means. We will likely not have a good idea what the first half of march is going to bring until the end of the weekend minimum imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 CMC does a 180 from last run and goes full lat ridge central US linking up with the NAO ridge. Hope you guys like roller coasters....including the ones that go backwards and in loops lol. Fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The changes from run to run on the ops are just silly as a few of us have alluded to happening until the pattern change resolves itself BUT the 12 gfs op has a much better scenario in the LR IF a full lat trof in fact develops with that feature popping out West and bolstering a +PNA look. That is something I wouldnt mind locking into going forward. I wont even get into what is happening in our neck of the woods downstream of that feature. Just know we havent lost any chances in early March at all with several possibilities on the table. Eta: Nice look with the pna linking with the ao block while still leaving the neg NAO as a relatively separate entity. Will change in 6 noirs but still. just absolutely night and day from 00z run. LR on the OP's should be ignored for the time being. Even the ensembles are going to be shaky. The pattern shift is wreaking havoc on the models and I expect it to continue all weekend. Encouraging though that it has completely flipped on the torch idea after the 3/2 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 the other positive aspect is that all the models are printing out around 2" of precip in the next 10 days so at least it looks active precip wise. While there isn't a big cold signal, the blocking in place with these big precip events could be a very good combination. It only takes of those events to have just enough cold air and we have a major storm. h5 for the GFS at 240 is a MECS, I don't care what the surface shows. If h5 verifies anywhere near that, we will see a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: I use weathermodels.com and stormvista so can't help ya there. You can get the GEFS individuals 500 mb though on the psu ewall. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 The march 1st-3rd threat looks hella interesting on the GEFS. Ensembles are everywhere at that time frame. Several show a secondary popping far enough south to slam us with a nice storm. Lots of members that hint the primary not getting as far north before being squashed by the block. This is definitely one to watch imo and I wouldn't be surprised if this is one that comes to us with very little lead time ie 84-96 hours. I think the models are underestimating the strength of the block and plowing the primary too far north and west. I think as we get closer and details on the location and strength of the block become clearer, we see this get pushed further and further south. temps may be an issue though even if we get a great track with no real cold air in place but if it bombs like some members do, it won't matter. Still I think this is the one to focus on as being the first real threat in the new pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 that primary isn't going through the lakes with blocking like this in place...I just do not see it happening at all. should this verify, we should definitely be seeing shifts south on the primary as OP guidance gets a better read on blocking. But if it is anywhere near this strong and in this position, we have to be more worried about suppression than a lakes cutter imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 that primary isn't going through the lakes with blocking like this in place...I just do not see it happening at all. should this verify, we should definitely be seeing shifts south on the primary as OP guidance gets a better read on blocking. But if it is anywhere near this strong and in this position, we have to be more worried about suppression than a lakes cutter imo Might be ok with that signal for a weak SE ridge leveling the playing field to keep anything from going too far S. A ways out there tho still to get too concerned overanalyzing any single run...even the ens have shown substantial variability at this range. Probably another tightrope/balancing act upcoming. Still liking the March 3-10 range for some good chances....might need to see if the March 3 signal tries to sneak in a day early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 IMO, the first one's a rainer but sets the stage for the second one post 3/5. It's all going to come down to the placement of the 50/50 and retrograde of the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 IMO, the first one's a rainer but sets the stage for the second one post 3/5. It's all going to come down to the placement of the 50/50 and retrograde of the block.Im leaning 75% rainer for the March 2-3 thing but we'll see. Thereafter if we can hold the look (unlikely?) things become rather favorable. Only need the basic upper air setup look to hold for 10 more days....we got this lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 We have a school ski trip planned to poconos this Sunday. We have until tomorrow morning to cancel the bus service. Looks like NAM gets the rain out of the picture earlier but the GFS looks rainy all day. What do you guys think? Also I'm taking a 4 day weekend next week end to go boarding in NH and VT. I'm hoping they score on this first wave even if it rains down here. Question is: should I take this Thursday and Friday off or the following Monday and Tuesday for optimal snow chances? Looks too murky in model land to decide for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 If you haven't already check out crankywxguy's website. www.stormhamster.com. Lots of great stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 5 hours ago, Redmorninglight said: We have a school ski trip planned to poconos this Sunday. We have until tomorrow morning to cancel the bus service. Looks like NAM gets the rain out of the picture earlier but the GFS looks rainy all day. What do you guys think? Also I'm taking a 4 day weekend next week end to go boarding in NH and VT. I'm hoping they score on this first wave even if it rains down here. Question is: should I take this Thursday and Friday off or the following Monday and Tuesday for optimal snow chances? Looks too murky in model land to decide for now. You could check again early in the morning, but I'm thinking that if you go you'll be riding up in the rain, and maybe get some spring type skiing in after 12 or 1 pm? Depends on how much you want to go I suppose. Not an ideal day that's for sure. Good luck! Next week it looks like you should take Thursday and Friday off if you want the best chance to be in some possibly significant snow on Friday. Hold your fire until later Sunday or Monday if you can! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Since no one else is posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 1 hour ago, wkd said: Since no one else is posting. What the Euro did last night is exactly what we need to see. It held back the energy out west and allowed the higher heights to build over the top. It then ejected the energy allowing for the block and 50/50 to get into perfect place. However, the Euro does have a bias of holding back energy so that needs to be watched out for. I still think the GFS is too fast though. I know I said I would favor this storm as a rainer, but last nights Euro caught my eye. If you're going to be looking for anything in these next couple days, watch for the energy out west and how fast/slow the models eject it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Ops and even the ens means are still all over the place. Yes, certainly a couple good chances March 3 (2?) thru March 10. Any could produce and any could also be a deluge or OTS to our South. Hate to mention this but the setup is eerily similar to early March 2001. I would temper expectations until we see what NAO decides to do in 4-6 days ie strength/location/interaction with mid lat ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 12z euro more in line with the gfs and gem with the evolution of next weeks storm. Most of the snow stays north. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 7 hours ago, wkd said: Since no one else is posting. Nothing like going from 20" to 0" on the 12z I am not sold on the "good" first couple weeks of March. Could more easily finish as a chilly dreary two weeks. Speaking of dreary how about four straight days of dark cloudy nasty rain through tomorrow, three days of it super chilled rain. Hideous. Also the wettest February on record for many stations is going down, i can't believe i predicted that early month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 The block will cause issues for models in the long range. Even if the weekend is rain, we have potential right after as shown by the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Stuff incoming yet again...seems like non stop. 44F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 25, 2018 Author Share Posted February 25, 2018 Getting some decent rain so far this morning, moderate to heavy rain falling. 0.33" of rain so far today. Temp 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Got 0.09" yesterday and 0.54" so far today @ current post time, the heaviest coming just before 4 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Just trying to keep hope alive. Control run. Yes, it is an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Looks like several hours of rain coming in...41.7F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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