Rtd208 Posted February 21, 2018 Author Share Posted February 21, 2018 Temp up to 76 here now. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 76.4 TTN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 76F Levittown, 76F Trenton...I've broken my personal all time high temp for feb in Levittown, KTTN ties all time feb record...do they get to 77F? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Up to 76.4 here in East Nantmeal....all-time record February high temperature record is within reach at 77 degrees set back on Feb 25th 1930! While down in Sea Isle City the wind switched to SW and noon and they zoomed up to 71.4 at 1pm....then wind shifted to SE again and now down to 52.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 12z model recap pretty much continues to honk at the NAO tanking now inside the 5 day range. To me it looks like we have 2 distinct threats emerging. The first one in the march 1st-3rd time frame...blocking may be too strong here and suppress it but there is a system showing up on all models now. The second one is the one I have been looking at the last few days in the march 6-8th time frame. blocking relaxes a bit so could be primed for a big time long lasting synoptic event. we'll see if it materializes in a few days. Also a chance for a few minor events as well but won't know the details until way closer. overall we are definitely going to see a return to winter and almost certainly going to see another snow event as well imo now odds are always against a big time event but we have the pattern in place that favors those over the nickle and dimes we saw all year. this is really the pattern we want if we want to end winter with a possible bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 21, 2018 Author Share Posted February 21, 2018 Inching ever so close to the 80 mark, current temp 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 21, 2018 Author Share Posted February 21, 2018 Bingo! Just hit 80 here. If we are getting these temps already I am going to hate to see what summer may be like this year, 3 H summer on the way?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 77.0 TTN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 110F this summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Pretty sure I hit 80 today. Rare day warmer than the city. This is like upper 50s/lower 60s for highs in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 High IMBY was 76 (76.3). Pretty amazing for February 21st. My low so far has been 58 just after midnight. Pulled the grill out and cooked up some 'burgers, 'dogs and pork char siu to freeze and use later. Now the rains are a-coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Went out for a little and snagged a nice bass. BRING ON THE SPRING! LOLSent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Today's high in Chester County reached 77.7 this is the warmest February temperature ever recorded in Chester County History from 1894 to Present. Of course as warm as today was...it can't beat the 4 days this week in 1930 that surpassed 70 degrees in Chester County. Our high tomorrow will occur at midnight with even some sleet possible by later tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 80.2F high Torrential downpour now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 6 hours ago, The Iceman said: 12z model recap pretty much continues to honk at the NAO tanking now inside the 5 day range. To me it looks like we have 2 distinct threats emerging. The first one in the march 1st-3rd time frame...blocking may be too strong here and suppress it but there is a system showing up on all models now. The second one is the one I have been looking at the last few days in the march 6-8th time frame. blocking relaxes a bit so could be primed for a big time long lasting synoptic event. we'll see if it materializes in a few days. Also a chance for a few minor events as well but won't know the details until way closer. overall we are definitely going to see a return to winter and almost certainly going to see another snow event as well imo now odds are always against a big time event but we have the pattern in place that favors those over the nickle and dimes we saw all year. this is really the pattern we want if we want to end winter with a possible bang. In my post yesterday I mentioned 3 threats during the first half of March that each have the *potential* to produce with the third and final piece being the Archambault. With the extreme blocking, I mentioned how the Southern regions would probably cash in on the first system, middle coast with the second, and ny/ne with the final though if it is a true flip in the neg NAO to a positive and the pieces fall into place (such as the +PNA/epo trying to help with track and colder temp anomalies), the third event could effect more than just the Northeast but that is way out there in fantasy land. March 3-10 is the range to watch for at least the first 2 chances as signals are being tossed around on the ens. Things become muddled towards the tail end of that range into mid-march but weeklies suggest favorable pattern thru the 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Surreal we are talking highs mid 70s to low 80s today, fishing for LMB, and epic late season blocking with winter storm potentials all in the same day, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Surreal we are talking highs mid 70s to low 80s today, fishing for LMB, and epic late season blocking with winter storm potentials all in the same day, lol. Lol crazy. I'll do one big storm boys that's it. One big one first week of March and let's move onSent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 3 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: High IMBY was 76 (76.3). Pretty amazing for February 21st. My low so far has been 58 just after midnight. Pulled the grill out and cooked up some 'burgers, 'dogs and pork char siu to freeze and use later. Now the rains are a-coming. I shovel snow to get to my grill all winter long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 8 hours ago, Bluescat1 said: I shovel snow to get to my grill all winter long. You and both my sisters and BILs! I was just texting them yesterday and laughing about their 24/7/365 grilling. In fact one of them told me they just bought a little weather-proof clamp-on light for the grill lid to help illuminate any night-time grill action. As an obs note, my "min" yesterday ended up being 57F just before midnight. Amazing for February. Currently overcast and 50F with temp slowly dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Temp has continued to fall all morning here in NW Chester County - now down to 42.5 with .04" of rain so far after 0.9" last evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 very amusing seeing other subforums here live and die with every OP run in the LR. I get that this winter hasn't been great but jeez...some serious bridge jumping going on based on 2 long range OP runs. GEFS wants nothing to do with what the OP is smoking. Have a feeling EPS will be similar for the OP euro. Ensembles still look good for the long range with a big -nao setting up and then moderating into mid month. Whether we score or not is anyones guess but I would take the OP models with a major grain of salt at least through the weekend. They are going to be all over the place the next few days as we shift into the new pattern. Now could they shift towards what the 12z gfs shows...sure...but until the ensembles abandon the -NAO set up through mid march I'm pretty much ignoring the OP's past 5 days for any storm as they are going to change every single run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 14 hours ago, The Iceman said: very amusing seeing other subforums here live and die with every OP run in the LR. I get that this winter hasn't been great but jeez...some serious bridge jumping going on based on 2 long range OP runs. GEFS wants nothing to do with what the OP is smoking. Have a feeling EPS will be similar for the OP euro. Ensembles still look good for the long range with a big -nao setting up and then moderating into mid month. Whether we score or not is anyones guess but I would take the OP models with a major grain of salt at least through the weekend. They are going to be all over the place the next few days as we shift into the new pattern. Now could they shift towards what the 12z gfs shows...sure...but until the ensembles abandon the -NAO set up through mid march I'm pretty much ignoring the OP's past 5 days for any storm as they are going to change every single run. I chuckle my ass off reading the MA subforum sometimes....man, talk about jumping off the bridge. Some good posters there but damn some people just lose it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 very amusing seeing other subforums here live and die with every OP run in the LR. I get that this winter hasn't been great but jeez...some serious bridge jumping going on based on 2 long range OP runs. GEFS wants nothing to do with what the OP is smoking. Have a feeling EPS will be similar for the OP euro. Ensembles still look good for the long range with a big -nao setting up and then moderating into mid month. Whether we score or not is anyones guess but I would take the OP models with a major grain of salt at least through the weekend. They are going to be all over the place the next few days as we shift into the new pattern. Now could they shift towards what the 12z gfs shows...sure...but until the ensembles abandon the -NAO set up through mid march I'm pretty much ignoring the OP's past 5 days for any storm as they are going to change every single run.Ens started going towards the ops fwiw. Not in a massive one run shift but you can clearly see the signal for a full latitude ridge popping up which almost completely absorbs the NAO block and on some guidance this is only at a 6-day lead time from now so there is definitely now some merit to this idea. A piece of the NAO ridge does try and remain thanks to being re-energized by a piece of the epo block which propogates to the ao then towards Central Canada....not even really an NAO region tho but a Westward extension of the ridging we are seeing in the far Western NAO region. Full lat ridge makes climo sense as winter slowly fades and spring approaches so we cant just toss the idea.....I do believe it is real. Will be a matter of when, where, and how strong it sets up. Central US or Eastern US probably game over for big late season Winter storm hopes. Some guidance shows how we could still potentially score an Archambault as the record -NAO flips to weak positive BUT we do seem to be stepping back slightly past 24 hours from a sustained -NAO look thru mid-March. Lets see how it plays out tho before panicking....Im confident these LR looks will continue to fluctuate and change as they often do during major pattern changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ens started going towards the ops fwiw. Not in a massive one run shift but you can clearly see the signal for a full latitude ridge popping up which almost completely absorbs the NAO block and on some guidance this is only at a 6-day lead time from now so there is definitely now some merit to this idea. A piece of the NAO ridge does try and remain thanks to being re-energized by a piece of the epo block which propogates to the ao then towards Central Canada....not even really an NAO region tho but a Westward extension of the ridging we are seeing in the far Western NAO region. Full lat ridge makes climo sense as winter slowly fades and spring approaches so we cant just toss the idea.....I do believe it is real. Will be a matter of when, where, and how strong it sets up. Central US or Eastern US probably game over for big late season Winter storm hopes. Some guidance shows how we could still potentially score an Archambault as the record -NAO flips to weak positive BUT we do seem to be stepping back slightly past 24 hours from a sustained -NAO look thru mid-March. Lets see how it plays out tho before panicking....Im confident these LR looks will continue to fluctuate and change as they often do during major pattern changes. Not entirely in agreement with you on this one Steve....a little early to throw out the potential in the eastern US for a SECS. In fact you only need to look at the 0z Euro to see how it can happen. Models are struggling in this changing pattern still a week away. Stay tuned...interesting times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 0.15" of rain overnight with 0.32" over the last 3 days Rain now and 36.4 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 52 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Not entirely in agreement with you on this one Steve....a little early to throw out the potential in the eastern US for a SECS. In fact you only need to look at the 0z Euro to see how it can happen. Models are struggling in this changing pattern still a week away. Stay tuned...interesting times ahead! This 0z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Not entirely in agreement with you on this one Steve....a little early to throw out the potential in the eastern US for a SECS. In fact you only need to look at the 0z Euro to see how it can happen. Models are struggling in this changing pattern still a week away. Stay tuned...interesting times ahead!Please reread my post Paul..... I didnt throw anything out at all. I was mentioning the uncertainty in the LR with a small step back yet still seeing potential for the Archambault which could be the SECS.....provided the full lat ridging doesnt verify. That feature would not be a good look if models trend more towards it. I fully expect plenty of jumping around on guidance until this pattern shift (-NAO) resolves itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Please reread my post Paul..... I didnt throw anything out at all. I was mentioning the uncertainty in the LR with a small step back yet still seeing potential for the Archambault which could be the SECS.....provided the full lat ridging doesnt verify. That feature would not be a good look if models trend more towards it. I fully expect plenty of jumping around on guidance until this pattern shift (-NAO) resolves itself.I just reread my original post myself and see how it is confusing. When I say game over central eastern US I am saying IF the full lat ridge develops in the central or eastern part of US then likely game over for us here. Need to have coffee before making my first post lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ens started going towards the ops fwiw. Not in a massive one run shift but you can clearly see the signal for a full latitude ridge popping up which almost completely absorbs the NAO block and on some guidance this is only at a 6-day lead time from now so there is definitely now some merit to this idea. A piece of the NAO ridge does try and remain thanks to being re-energized by a piece of the epo block which propogates to the ao then towards Central Canada....not even really an NAO region tho but a Westward extension of the ridging we are seeing in the far Western NAO region. Full lat ridge makes climo sense as winter slowly fades and spring approaches so we cant just toss the idea.....I do believe it is real. Will be a matter of when, where, and how strong it sets up. Central US or Eastern US probably game over for big late season Winter storm hopes. Some guidance shows how we could still potentially score an Archambault as the record -NAO flips to weak positive BUT we do seem to be stepping back slightly past 24 hours from a sustained -NAO look thru mid-March. Lets see how it plays out tho before panicking....Im confident these LR looks will continue to fluctuate and change as they often do during major pattern changes. I just looked at the the ens for last night and while some deveop the full lat ridge, there are many others that don't...seems like there is pretty good consensus until we hit day 6/day 7 and then the models go bonkers. I can't say one way or another which way it is leaning but just that no one should have heavy emotions either way based on one model suite especially the next few days. The system that the 00z euro has literally could hit anywhere from vermont to SC...with so many shifting parts the models and ens just are not going to be useful in the LR right now because we are seeing a major pattern shift. I really don't even take a lot of stock in the ensembles either right now because if you look at the individual members, they are all over the place after day 6...so much so that a mean isn't the likely solution... now if the full lat ridge develops well then yeah game over, but I think we are days away from knowing either way that this pattern will be a dud or stud. Until we get closer and more details are refined, and the ensembles have some semblance of continuity, the next few days really are a crap shoot for the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 31 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I just looked at the the ens for last night and while some deveop the full lat ridge, there are many others that don't...seems like there is pretty good consensus until we hit day 6/day 7 and then the models go bonkers. I can't say one way or another which way it is leaning but just that no one should have heavy emotions either way based on one model suite especially the next few days. The system that the 00z euro has literally could hit anywhere from vermont to SC...with so many shifting parts the models and ens just are not going to be useful in the LR right now because we are seeing a major pattern shift. I really don't even take a lot of stock in the ensembles either right now because if you look at the individual members, they are all over the place after day 6...so much so that a mean isn't the likely solution... now if the full lat ridge develops well then yeah game over, but I think we are days away from knowing either way that this pattern will be a dud or stud. Until we get closer and more details are refined, and the ensembles have some semblance of continuity, the next few days really are a crap shoot for the LR. Where do you find 500mb heights on individual panels of the ensembles? I can't find them on weatherbell. Edit: members, not panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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