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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread


Rtd208

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Up to 68.4 here in NW Chesco - the record high temps for both today (71) and tomorrow (70) were set way back in 1930...gonna be close.

While down in Sea Isle City the sea breeze has been working overtime with a SW wind made it to 63 at 11am but down to 50 at 1145 then back up to 65.7 with a SW wind at 2pm and now starting back down with the wind back out of the SE at 60 degrees.

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25 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

74F here currently - have to admit it feels nice outside, especially with the sun! I'm okay with the early warmth, but not too much for too long please (buds and all).

Two or three years ago we had a hard freeze in April that killed a lot of the buds on my ornamentals and fruit trees. I hate when that happens.

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Made it to 69 here and the low overnight was 49 and that might be exceeded tomorrow.  Mt. Holly posted up the records that were broken and projections for the rest of the month CWA-wide -

&&

.CLIMATE...
The following high temperature records were set today:

Atlantic City...73
Philadelphia...71
Wilmington...74
Georgetown...72
Mount Pocono...64

Please check the following list for the old records. Additional
high temperature records are likely this afternoon and Wednesday.

Tuesday, February 20:

Atlantic City...70 in 1930
Philadelphia....70 in 1939
Wilmington......71 in 1930
Allentown.......68 in 1930
Trenton.........70 in 1930
Georgetown......68 in 2002
Mount Pocono....59 in 1930
Reading.........72 in 1930

Wednesday, February 21:

Atlantic City...74 in 1930
Philadelphia....72 in 1930
Wilmington......70 in 1953
Allentown.......67 in 1953
Trenton.........70 in 1930
Georgetown......71 in 2014
Mount Pocono....60 in 1930
Reading.........71 in 1930

A record warm minimum temperature may be set for Atlantic City
on Tuesday. The current record is 44 in 1949.

The following are the record warm minimum temperatures for
Wednesday, all which should be exceeded.

ABE 46-1981
ACY 49-1954
PHL 49-2002
ILG 47-2002
RDG 48-1930
TTN 48-2002

The all time February max temps may be approached on Wednesday
at ILG, TTN, GED RDG MPO. All the all time monthly max`s are
listed below:

ACY 77 2/25/30
PHL 79 2/25/30
ILG 78 2/24/85
ABE 77 2/24/17
TTN 76 2/25/30
GED 77 2/25/17
RDG 77 2/24/17
MPO 70 2/25/30

Our expectation is that ACY will exceed the previous all time
record rainfall for February, by the end of the weekend. The
record is 6.50 inches in 2010. #2 is 1958 with 5.98 inches.

And...adding only half an inch to PHL and ILG will put both
locations in the top 9 ranking for Feb rainfall.

Have rechecked the monthly projection at PHL and the avg temp
continues at 41.0 or 5.3F above avg which is 8th warmest on
record, if it holds. Add or subtract a degree to the
average/departure and the ranking changes from 3rd to 11th. The
forecast 5.3F departure is ~2f warmer than the current
departure. I`d expect similar for the rest of our area...a bit
less in the north which will have better chances for colder air,
and a bit more warming in the south where the positive
departure as of yesterday was already 5F above normal, heading
for 7+. So all in all it appears we`re heading for a top 10
warmest February. Last year was the warmest on record, a
whopping 3+F degrees warmer than our current projection.

&&

 

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5 hours ago, wkd said:

Two or three years ago we had a hard freeze in April that killed a lot of the buds on my ornamentals and fruit trees. I hate when that happens.

Yeah, we have a White Magnolia here that had just gotten to full bloom, I believe it was around the 15th of April.  Last year wasn't a late freeze but a super warm February, which caused the same tree's buds to begin to open way early, followed by the mid-March cold with lows down to 14F here around the time of the snow-sleet brick. Most of the flowers that did eventually bloom had black tips from the freeze/burn. I'm hopeful that this year won't be a repeat, since this February likely won't be as warm as last year (number of above normal days).

Meanwhile, 58F here at 9:45 pm!

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Overnight ens have not made any ultra significant changes worth noting in the LR. The signal for a Southern wave around Feb 28 did lessen slightly with a more strung/sheared out look. Big ticket -NAO still poised to begin settling in D+5 as it retrogrades WSW across Greenland. There are notable differences still between the GEFS and EPS irt how each handles the 50/50 low feature. The EPS is more of a stable and classic look and now has a decent signal for 3 runs or so for a system March 3 area. GEFS otoh tries to retrograde the 50/50 NNE to SSW with a locked in surface high over the center of the nation and midwest and wants no parts of any true coastal storm development outside of the unorthodox convoluted movement of the 50/50 which seems overdone imo. GEFS would signal something later on as the extreme block weakens/relaxes around Mar 8-10ish. Of course the ops are spitting out all sorts of different scenarios attm and should be taken with a grain of salt until the pattern evolution resolves itself. Many more ways we fail in this setup than score a big snow but who knows, it is early to say. Interesting to note, there are several analogs for the upcoming h5 pattern which simply did not produce at all or very little in the way of snow and only a handful that actually had major snow events for the same look in early March going back 65 years. Expectations should remain tempered for big snows for now. Noreaster pattern? Most likely yes during the March 3-10 range at least. SECS+ pattern? Potential is there but clearly tbd. I do like what the EPS are tossing out and hope the GEFS is overdone with some of its features.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Overnight ens have not made any ultra significant changes worth noting in the LR. The signal for a Southern wave around Feb 28 did lessen slightly with a more strung/sheared out look. Big ticket -NAO still poised to begin settling in D+5 as it retrogrades WSW across Greenland. There are notable differences still between the GEFS and EPS irt how each handles the 50/50 low feature. The EPS is more of a stable and classic look and now has a decent signal for 3 runs or so for a system March 3 area. GEFS otoh tries to retrograde the 50/50 NNE to SSW with a locked in surface high over the center of the nation and midwest and wants no parts of any true coastal storm development outside of the unorthodox convoluted movement of the 50/50 which seems overdone imo. GEFS would signal something later on as the extreme block weakens/relaxes around Mar 8-10ish. Of course the ops are spitting out all sorts of different scenarios attm and should be taken with a grain of salt until the pattern evolution resolves itself. Many more ways we fail in this setup than score a big snow but who knows, it is early to say. Interesting to note, there are several analogs for the upcoming h5 pattern which simply did not produce at all or very little in the way of snow and only a handful that actually had major snow events for the same look in early March going back 65 years. Expectations should remain tempered for big snows for now. Noreaster pattern? Most likely yes during the March 3-10 range at least. SECS+ pattern? Potential is there but clearly tbd. I do like what the EPS are tossing out and hope the GEFS is overdone with some of its features.

 

 

The good news is the GEFS has been getting caved in by the EPS this month so very good chance the features on the GEFS are overdone...

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We set a record high min for the entire month (1894 to Present) of February this AM with the temp only getting down to 58.4 if this holds thru midnight (WXSIM says it won't) it would break the old mark of 53 set way back in 1939. Wxsim has us slipping to around 51 before midnight tonight. 

Yesterday we just missed a record high as we only hit 70.4 (Chester County record 71 set back in 1930). Today we have a great shot at eclipsing the old mark which is only 70 degrees also from 1930.

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5 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

69.4 at 11:04am - yet only 53.6 in Sea Isle City...cold ocean makes for a tough spring at the shore...

crazy gradient down the shore....55-60F on the beach/islands...a couple miles inland and it's 73-74F already. Can be like that through May...which sometimes is good then because they can be n the mid upper 60's when everyone else is in the upper 80's.

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AMAZING WEATHER!!!

I know it won't last but let's just get to spring boys. We had two weeks of the coldest weather I can remember in years and just not a snowy winter, time to move on. I'm ready for green grass, beautiful trees and flowers, and sunny days :)

It's only February though LOL, we're not even close. Still a month of snow shots left

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

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