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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread

Rtd208

By Rtd208,
in Philadelphia Region

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Newman

Newman

Posted
Posted

At this point in the winter, I'm throwing all my chips in for an all out HECS/KU event. Pattern upcoming will at the least allow for that type of reasoning.

Also, snow cover hanging strong for now but I think the 70 on Tuesday and 75 on Wednesday will have something to say about that.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

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-3 or greater SD negative NAO still popping on all ens means at range. We likely wont score early during the blocking as systems get shunted South and East as the block retrogrades along with the semi-persistent 50/50 low feature. Feb 28-March 3 period favors a Southeast/Mid Atl look imo but as the blocking weakens and relaxes those threats should creep Northward into our region between March 3-March 10+. Also signs on the GEFS that a weakish +PNA develops in tandem. When the -NAO flips to positive later on, especially if a quick flip, we could score on an Archambault as well, but one thing at a time. In a nutshell, Feb 28-March 20ish holds alot of potential, beginning with Southern zones early on then moving Northward as pattern blocking weakens with finally the potential for a good widespread hit at some point when the NAO flips from - to + that isnt drawn out and gradual via an Archambault event. Keying on the March 3-10 range first.....so get out and enjoy the coming warmth and try not to get caught up in the ops bounciness over the next week.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Birds~69

Birds~69

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

-3 or greater SD negative NAO still popping on all ens means at range. We likely wont score early during the blocking as systems get shunted South and East as the block retrogrades along with the semi-persistent 50/50 low feature. Feb 28-March 3 period favors a Southeast/Mid Atl look imo but as the blocking weakens and relaxes those threats should creep Northward into our region between March 3-March 10+. Also signs on the GEFS that a weakish +PNA develops in tandem. When the -NAO flips to positive later on, especially if a quick flip, we could score on an Archambault as well, but one thing at a time. In a nutshell, Feb 28-March 20ish holds alot of potential, beginning with Southern zones early on then moving Northward as pattern blocking weakens with finally the potential for a good widespread hit at some point when the NAO flips from - to + that isnt drawn out and gradual via an Archambault event. Keying on the March 3-10 range first.....so get out and enjoy the coming warmth and try not to get caught up in the ops bounciness over the next week.

 

I just can't enjoy 70's in Feb....plain and simple it really pisses me off. We have Spring, Summer and Fall to hit the 70s....just not now. Christ sake, it's Winter. Be Winter...

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The Iceman

The Iceman

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34 minutes ago, Bluescat1 said:

With 8 days left of Meteorological winter is anyone going to hang a RIP on the winter of 2017-18? The winter with the most 2 to 5 inch snow falls I can remember.

With the forecasted pattern taking shape next week into at least the first 10 days of March, no way should anyone be ready to hang a RIP on winter 17-18. Our biggest snow, could very well be yet to come. 

 

Last nights GEFS, EPS, and GEPS continue to show remarkable agreement towards the NAO tanking next week and the Atlantic blocking retrograding into a favorable position west of Greenland. No major changes and it is very encouraging that we are getting into the day 6-7 range to see these changes start taking place. The block being presented in the day 10 period though would actually be too strong and suppress most of our threats to the south. Our only hope then would be to score on an Archambault event which wouldn't be bad, would be throwing all of our eggs in one basket where as a gradual weakening of the block as it retrogrades into a good position, would be much better for everyone. I think RW said it in this or another thread, but we could see 3 waves that favor parts of the entire area, one south, one here, and one north...then an archambault event to close out the season. This pattern has tons of potential and we should see some fantasy threats pop up in the 10 day range beginning really any day now. Pattern doesn't look cold but more that storms will be cold enough and take favorable tracks to lock in that cold. So it is not really a snow pack pattern as it would be just an active precipitation pattern. Personally I think the normal climo areas do better than the coastal plain. Meaning N and W of 95 will be favored in nearly every event barring an event that is suppressed. Even with the blocking, getting accumulating snow in March requires several things for the coastal plain to score. So even in a great pattern, the usual caveats(temps, rates, CAD) will be around in big events which is why I think N and W still is the favored area. Not really a big stretch though. If, and again a pretty big if, the -3 to -4 SD blocking west of greenland verifies, then area's S and E may end up faring better as that much blocking will almost certainly lead to to suppression. Overall though, couldn't really ask for a better look in this time frame. We should have at least 3 or 4 more winter storm threats imo before we can say goodbye to winter 17-18. Most of us are a MECS away from this year actually ending up very high on the all time list for winters and this upcoming pattern is looking prime for a MECS or better threat. I continue to like the March 5th-8th period as a MECS threat period...I think we will see some absolute beauties in the fantasy range in the coming days. Enjoy the 70s today and tomorrow because it could be awhile before we see temps like that again.

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The Iceman

The Iceman

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btw I'm not sure many of us see 70's today if these clouds do not burn off quickly. Only at 56F at my house at 11 am and have been only inching to that point. Still completely dreary/overcast outside as well. Looking as GOES 16(incredible BTW) it looks like we have at least another hour or 2 minimum socked in clouds. Not sure how much time will be left to heat up at that point. Tomorrow is still looking primed for record heat on the GFS and CMC/RGEM. Every local station's record high minimum and maximum will almost certainly fall tomorrow morning/day if they are right. A couple all time feb highs may fall too imo... I think MPO(70) and KTTN(76) have the best shot. RDG and ABE at 77F have a chance as well if you believe 00 MOS. Outside shot Philly hits 80F for the first time ever in feb? We'll see, I honestly would not be surprised to be honest based on the GFS/CMC/RGEM...

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The Iceman

The Iceman

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interesting...12z 12k and 3k NAM both backed off on big time heat tomorrow...only gets most of the area into the mid 60s... like today, shows the clouds and fog that form overnight not being able to be burned off tomorrow in time to get the area big heat. Was one of the only models to show this today as well. RGEM, CMC, and GFS are still on board for 70s but I wouldn't write off the NAM in this kind of situation. It could be keying on the cloud cover being stuck in the area due to the super high dews before everyone else. Today is looking like a bust for temps thus far due to the clouds as I think they were supposed to be burned off by late morning at the latest and they are hanging tough with the LL moisture in place. The big heatwave that got some weenies in other boards to write off winter is looking like it may only produce 2 AN days with the only records broken being daily mins. Very curious to see the 12z hires NAM nest to see if they too are similar with temps as the parent model...

 

Edit: The Hi-Res canadian model (HRDPS) does not show the clouds being an issue and torch the area into the mide 70s like other guidance. Nam is on its own until the euro which at 00z did what the 12z NAM is showing just not as severe. Will be interesting if it too continues to back off of the record heat for SE PA in favor of the clouds. If the 12z Euro back the NAM, I would have to say that no one gets to 70 tomorrow.

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

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33 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

btw I'm not sure many of us see 70's today if these clouds do not burn off quickly. Only at 56F at my house at 11 am and have been only inching to that point. Still completely dreary/overcast outside as well. Looking as GOES 16(incredible BTW) it looks like we have at least another hour or 2 socked in clouds. Not sure how much time will be left to heat up at that point. Tomorrow is still looking primed for record heat. Every local station's record high minimum and maximum will almost certainly fall tomorrow morning/day. A couple all time feb highs may fall too imo... I think MPO(70) and KTTN(76) have the best shot. RDG and ABE at 77F have a chance as well if you believe MOS. Outside shot Philly hits 80F for the first time ever in feb? We'll see, I honestly would not be surprised to be honest...

Head west to Lancaster county. Full sun here and last I checked it was 65 at 11:30am. Should get past 70 with ease today. 

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The Iceman

The Iceman

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Posted
12 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Head west to Lancaster county. Full sun here and last I checked it was 65 at 11:30am. Should get past 70 with ease today. 

Yep the gradient seems to be chester/lancaster for the clouds. LL moisture seems to have just funneled into the del valley and created an inversion. Can see it perfectly on visible sat that patch of low clouds just hovering over SE PA contracting slowly

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The Iceman

The Iceman

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Sun is finally peeking out here. 60 F let's see how much warming we can get in 3 or so hours....can we reach 70 in time? I think we just fall short in lower bucks/Trenton...my guess is 68 or 69F here. Philly is still at 57F and cloudy...seems they are one of the last to see sun...will be interesting too see how quick they recover once they finally break out of the clouds. Interesting inversion of clouds right along the two major rivers this morning(delaware and skook) and expanding outward. with PHL pretty much at the intersection of the 2 not surprising they are one of the last to see the burn off of the clouds. Places just to the west are in the low 60s that have likely just saw clearing so I bet they recover quick. Remains to be seen whether they recover enough to hit 70 today though...will be pretty remarkable if they do.

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The Iceman

The Iceman

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In the midst of this 70F talk, we may have an actual threat to track in the day 7-9 period. Timing is all over the place with the models but as the NAO becomes favorable a wave approaches from the south, whether it is squashed or not remains to be seen but the threat is evident as seen on the 12z CMC. The GFS and Euro have it too but sheared and to the south. If the block comes in not as strong as projected which is possible, this becomes one to watch. In the LR, the GEFS/ GEPS/EPS all are in continued agreement towards a west based -NAO block retrograding in place by next week...strength is huge as well which could be an issue with suppression 3 to 4 SD below normal... But deeper in the LR it weakens and the PNA goes neutral or even slightly positive...that period march-5-8th still looks great in the LR on the ensembles today. great consistency pointing towards a return to winter by next week.

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