The Iceman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 as has been the theme all winter...the massive blocking in the LR was pushed back last night... looks like we may be at saturday or bust for winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Never seen the roads as bad as what happened in Jan-Feb 2014, 309 was a war zone All these rain storms combined with the EKG pattern are going to be trouble moving forward driving skills will be tested lol How about it!! It seems new craters pop up every daySent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 So while the gefs pushed the major block look back it is now in line with the EPS with the delay. If and again big if, we don't get pushed back once again, we should see one last horrah of a winter period with by far the best look thus far. Our best March storms are always strong, deep synoptic events and the pattern being hinted at in the lr is favorable for that. Even if it isn't all frozen, they are usually just very fun intense storms. Fingers crossed we don't see another set back as I think the large scale west block eventually occurs for sure with how often it is popping up now on the ensembles. My fear is still that it doesn't become reality until we are beyond climo for snow and it takes highly anamolous cold for it to work. We won't get that in this pattern but in the first half of March we don't need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 Current temp is down to 37 here. Picked up 0.15" of rain for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 Temp has been dropping steadily all night, now down to 32 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 Temps dropped nicely overnight, current temp is 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 Temp has gone up pretty quickly here this morning, currently 35 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 Current temp is 37/DP 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 Current temp 36/DP 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Puking rain nicely here in Freehold, NJ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Now puking Snow! Freehold, NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 -NAO and a -AO showing up on most ens means and even the ops at long range now (240 hours+). Yeah it is a ways out there but really good consistent signal with mucho agreement between model families. 50/50 low locked in end of month going into March. Very convoluted looking pattern at higher latitude with a massive flat ridge also in N AK. Perfect looking pattern? No, never really is. The SER keeps showing up with a weak -PNA for a time. Not the worst look but cant ask for much more right now. Would be nice to see a big epo ridge to help with greater negative temp departures in our neck of the woods, but first 2 weeks of March we can survive without that as there are still neg anomalies. Doesnt mean we will see a snowy pattern or something to produce wintry weather here BUT we take the look for now and work with it. Someone else said, which I agree, I will gladly take a major slow crawling pounding Noreaster that is a rainer if thats what Mother Nature throws our way. Would hate to see too much of a good thing though and storm threats shunted South of us then OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 I usually read every ones posts in our three forums rather than post but I have to let the cat out of the bag. Received 7.8 in of snow in Macungie PA. I am letting you know now. The GFS Global model is whiffing out a sweet spot LP on or around March 5-7. Historically, we get Philly Flower snowstorms almost every year and this year looks like no exception. I am an historical weather pattern guy (doing this since the 1970's) rather than just a model hugger. Its coming like a thief in the night. Not saying it will be a record breaker but with the NAO going into negative territory, a dying La Nina patttern, enough cold air and plenty of moisture the cards are lining up. Just keep an eye on this time frame. Enjoy the upcoming summer temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 ^^^^Good stuff. The pna being negative doesn't bother me too much...just means we won't see a super cold pattern but it also means we will see a active southern jet. As long as those systems are shunted south of us by the -ao and -nao we will be in good shape for an active storm period with the caveat being that we will likely have temp issues similar to last night for most events because I don't see an Arctic air mass. My biggest worry is this continuing to be shoved back on the day 10-15 range. Once we get inside 10 days and the ops and ensembles are agreeing on blocking then I will get much more excited. Until then enjoy this week of an early spring preview but don't sleep on winter returning possibly in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, Albedoman said: I usually read every ones posts in our three forums rather than post but I have to let the cat out of the bag. Received 7.8 in of snow in Macungie PA. I am letting you know now. The GFS Global model is whiffing out a sweet spot LP on or around March 5-7. Historically, we get Philly Flower snowstorms almost every year and this year looks like no exception. I am an historical weather pattern guy (doing this since the 1970's) rather than just a model hugger. Its coming like a thief in the night. Not saying it will be a record breaker but with the NAO going into negative territory, a dying La Nina patttern, enough cold air and plenty of moisture the cards are lining up. Just keep an eye on this time frame. Enjoy the upcoming summer temps. Thanks for sharing. Most of my long range winter forecast is based off historical analogs so it's definitely not crack science using historical patterns to predict future storms. If things in the lr play out, that time frame certainly makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 In search of 1" to pull ahead of winter 2009(28.55") and 3" to be near average(31") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 2018 is a hybrid of winters 2006 and 2009. Has the early snow and long mid winter hiatus of 2006 and many small events and notable cold of 2009, plus the one SECS . Still has a chance of the big storm like 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Want to take a trip tues and wed 70 degrees to ocean city n.j. ,never been there and need to know if it is a waste of a trip in feb,are shops and beach board walk even open enough to do this,your thoughts would be appreciated,ps.two adults and one small dog ,not looking for amusement park just some nice weather activity,thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 P.s. ,sorry comming from upstate ny Area about 5 hrs. Away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ME_wannabe Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 1 hour ago, Bigfoot said: Want to take a trip tues and wed 70 degrees to ocean city n.j. ,never been there and need to know if it is a waste of a trip in feb,are shops and beach board walk even open enough to do this,your thoughts would be appreciated,ps.two adults and one small dog ,not looking for amusement park just some nice weather activity,thanks The weather looks nice so that's a good start. Being on the boardwalk this time of year when it's relatively quiet and with the benefit of good weather is well worth a trip in my opinion. However, even on a warmer day the boardwalk can be much cooler and windy than just inshore depending on wind conditions. Some stores are open winter midweek- food, gift shops and such. With good weather, it may be more are open than closed but really, it's the boardwalk so there's not a lot more than food, gifts and getting your palm read. If you do OC boardwalk one day, you may want to take a short drive further south to Cape May and tour some of the historic properties there. It's a great day trip. Hope that helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 14 minutes ago, ME_wannabe said: The weather looks nice so that's a good start. Being on the boardwalk this time of year when it's relatively quiet and with the benefit of good weather is well worth a trip in my opinion. However, even on a warmer day the boardwalk can be much cooler and windy than just inshore depending on wind conditions. Some stores are open winter midweek- food, gift shops and such. With good weather, it may be more are open than closed but really, it's the boardwalk so there's not a lot more than food, gifts and getting your palm read. If you do OC boardwalk one day, you may want to take a short drive further south to Cape May and tour some of the historic properties there. It's a great day trip. Hope that helps. Thank you, I will consider it and this helps me make an informed decision,thanks Again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Just seen Philly is at 14.6" for the season. Good chance Glenn will be spot on w/his prediction of 12" - 18". Still time for a little more but nothing is screaming snow through the end of February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 6 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Just seen Philly is at 14.6" for the season. Good chance Glenn will be spot on w/his prediction of 12" - 18". Still time for a little more but nothing is screaming snow through the end of February... Maybe not? Yeah, right, like this will really happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 There is going to be an Archambeault event during the first week of March as the extreme -NAO breaks down or at least moves away from its greatest negative anomaly. Whether or not it produces snow for us, who knows, but the look is there. Several pro mets are starting to honk on this period for a Noreaster as well. I wouldnt cash out my chips just yet if I were you. The ops are going to be spitting out some good fantasy weather porn over the next several days so it should be fun to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 I too am liking the March 5- March 8 timeframe for a large scale synoptic event. As mentioned above the ensembles are in strong agreement now of retrograding the -nao over to the west side of Greenland and then weakening it which sets up a possible Archambeault event. Now since this is past peak climo, we will need help with temps or it may cut track too close to the coast but those details aren't important this far out. Ensembles though continue to like that time period for a big event and it makes sense at h5. We will see several wx porn weenie runs this week and I hope we do as it will signal a higher possibility of a big time event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Next full moon is March 1-2. Perigee is a few days beforehand. For the sake of coastal communities, a major storm toward the beginning of the pattern would have a more significant impact than one toward the end of the severe blocking period. I suppose odds favor the bigger storm toward the end of the pattern possibly alleviating some impacts along immediate coastal sections. We should have a better idea in 5-7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Snow cover holding strong through President's day I didn't expect that still 4" on the grass clouds today helping tomorrow will be interesting with t-shirt weather and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Mist and 37 F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 27 minutes ago, RedSky said: Snow cover holding strong through President's day I didn't expect that still 4" on the grass clouds today helping tomorrow will be interesting with t-shirt weather and snow. Wow, we are just about all melted down at the other end of the county. Only snow is left in shaded spots. Can't believe you still have 4" everywhere up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Wow, we are just about all melted down at the other end of the county. Only snow is left in shaded spots. Can't believe you still have 4" everywhere up there. Plenty of snow for President's day i want to build an Abe Lincoln 41.7F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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