The Iceman Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 12z CMC shows basically the perfect track for us on the Saturday night storm. Would be 6-10" region wide. GFS is flatter and squashes it south. But in this range, that may be where we want it to be seeing as the last few events saw a big north trend as we got closer to the event and with the SE ridge building in, I have a hard time seeing this one slide south and OTS. I am worried more about temps than an event at this stage. With the +NAO, I don't really think it is a question of if we see a north trend but how far north is it going to end up. If the GFS had us in the jackpot right now, I would say this is almost certainly a rain event. It has a few things going for it like timing which will be overnight saturday so no sun angle worries and no lakes low to scour out the cold air ahead of the storm but we are still in this progressive pattern so changes with the key players are going to have impacts on the track. I don't expect any kind of consensus for another 48 hours at least and possibly not until all of the players are on the field. Overall, my feeling is that this has a fairly decent shot at being a 6" storm for the region despite being in a hostile pattern for winter weather. Like I said in an earlier post, I still am favoring north and west areas at this time as having the best chance for this storm. One more thing that I just noticed. The 06z NAVGEM is actually a decent hit for us and not squashed/suppressed when it is typically the furthest S and E of the models on storms. Another "Wiggum rule" tells me that when the NAVGEM isn't the S and E outlier, the storm is likely going to trend back north. I haven't seen the 12z NAVGEM yet though to see if this is still the case but it is a good sign for us that the 06z was not suppressed south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 For what it's worth now that most have abandoned ship to the lifeboats on the vestiges of this winter the ECM agrees with the lowly GGEM on a big snowstorm this weekend. Lucy let us have the superbowl i won't try and predict what happens here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Ohhh man 12z euro shows 8-12" from Philly N and W. Perfect track for us, Euro is in it's wheel house right?!?! Posting clown map for posterity. May be time to start a discussion thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 It will change but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 A Philly special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 SE PA needs 1 or 2 more decent storms to get us to average for snowfall for the winter. Hoping we can somehow pull off Sat-Sun and maybe another one into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, Newman said: SE PA needs 1 or 2 more decent storms to get us to average for snowfall for the winter. Hoping we can somehow pull off Sat-Sun and maybe another one into March. At least w/the Sat-Sun "event" we have pretty good timing. (at night)....then it shoots into the 60s (maybe hit 70 in some spots?) next week. From there, maybe we can eek out another storm the rest of the Winter...Spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Newman said: SE PA needs 1 or 2 more decent storms to get us to average for snowfall for the winter. Hoping we can somehow pull off Sat-Sun and maybe another one into March. ^^^Same. and wouldn't that be sweet! Cautiously optimistic for this weekend, but need another two days to clarify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Virtually all LR guidance is now trying to setup an extreme N Atl blocking pattern as we head later into Feb and into early March. EPS and GEFS pretty much agree on a -3SD or greater -NAO setting up. However, this doesnt guarantee cold and snowy by any means as the PAC goes to crap. I will say though that with the -NAO, we have gotten some of our more intense storms over the years, so maybe at the very worst we can score a strong Noreaster....if this look holds. Of course snows would be a bonus for those who enjoy it, but getting ahead of myself.....its a long way out there in fantasy land still. Nice to see some agreement tho on the -NAO potential FINALLY. Not too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 EPS backed off on the really nice -NAO look in the LR last night. Weaker and not in as favorable a position. Hopefully just a hiccup but getting the LR -NAO to actually verify this season has been nearly impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: EPS backed off on the really nice -NAO look in the LR last night. Weaker and not in as favorable a position. Hopefully just a hiccup but getting the LR -NAO to actually verify this season has been nearly impossible. Yup it is why I was not sold on a return to winter after our torch. The beautiful NAO look has been locked it from the day 13-15 range but inside of that it loses the look and pushes it back. Now the GEFS still looks good and has been better than the EPS this winter but I still won't believe that we have an epic block in place by the end of the month until I see it. Much more likely that it occurs more towards mid March and by then it's meh especially if we don't have cold air around. We don't usually see big changes from a SSW event for weeks after it's done which would correspond to this as well. I think the models are seeing the end result of the SSW but progressing the large scale pattern changes into reality too quickly which has occurred all year. Unfortunately we cannot really afford another delay so if that ends up being the case, winter is over after this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Has anyone else seen Brine down on the roadways this morning? I saw they had brined Route 1 in PA from Route 13 exit into NJ. Also saw some down on 202 in central NJ and in the New Hope area too. I was pretty confused since the storm tonight and front on Friday is not even going to feature frozen up in the mountains let alone down here. Seems like a flat out waste regardless if they have to get rid of it or not. Plus now my car is dirty again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 OP GFS continues to harp on a terrific pattern approaching day 10 now. We'll see if it is still there in 2 days but I must admit I am a bit surprised it hasn't been pushed back yet. Once we get inside 10 days, these features at 500 MB rarely bust significantly( as in a -NAO changing significantly to a +NAO pattern). We'll see how the ensembles look as they are still the better indicator but really no trend towards the EPS whatsoever on the OP GFS and it continues it's consistency of developing a massive west based -NAO by the end of the Month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 2 hours ago, The Iceman said: Has anyone else seen Brine down on the roadways this morning? I saw they had brined Route 1 in PA from Route 13 exit into NJ. Also saw some down on 202 in central NJ and in the New Hope area too. I was pretty confused since the storm tonight and front on Friday is not even going to feature frozen up in the mountains let alone down here. Seems like a flat out waste regardless if they have to get rid of it or not. Plus now my car is dirty again... No brine but the birds are chirping like hell today. Maybe they sense the rain coming... 49F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 The Op euro couldn't be any farther apart than the GFS in the day 10 range. Really incredible actually how different they are and I think really shows how difficult the upcoming pattern is going to be on the models. Euro's look at day 10 says winter is dead while the OP GFS has a possible epic pattern setting up. Will be interesting to see which model is right. CMC sides with the GFS in that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 ...and as soon as we get a consensus going and a great 18z nam run, the gfs comes in as a total whiff. Tune in for 00z for another edition of as the models turn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: ...and as soon as we get a consensus going and a great 18z nam run, the gfs comes in as a total whiff. Tune in for 00z for another edition of as the models turn... Iceman, you started a thread on this, lets keep the discussion in there so we can follow along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, hazwoper said: Iceman, you started a thread on this, lets keep the discussion in there so we can follow along. Sorry I accidentally posted in here. I'm on mobile. I was actually really confused when I saw your post in there and didn't see mine. I may be a bit sleep deprived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 The GEFS and GEPS still are consistently developing a west based NAO in the long range. I must admit I am beginning to take this more seriously now that a pattern change at the end of the month may be imminent. The EPS mean still is not nearly as bullish but towards the end of the run last night you can see the Greenland heights rising in a more west based position. So it is more like what I thought would happen...Delayed but not denied. Will be interesting over the next day to see if the GEFS continues to honk on the -NAO in the same timeframe or if it pushes the look back like the EPS. The GEFS already pushed bringing the west based NAO back but only by 12 hours or so...not a big shift imo Odds of winter returning though by the first week of march or the end of february have increased imo... I am still very hesitant to buy in yet though until we see it popping up in the day 7-8 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 The GEFS and GEPS still are consistently developing a west based NAO in the long range. I must admit I am beginning to take this more seriously now that a pattern change at the end of the month may be imminent. The EPS mean still is not nearly as bullish but towards the end of the run last night you can see the Greenland heights rising in a more west based position. So it is more like what I thought would happen...Delayed but not denied. Will be interesting over the next day to see if the GEFS continues to honk on the -NAO in the same timeframe or if it pushes the look back like the EPS. The GEFS already pushed bringing the west based NAO back but only by 12 hours or so...not a big shift imo Odds of winter returning though by the first week of march or the end of february have increased imo... I am still very hesitant to buy in yet though until we see it popping up in the day 7-8 range.Maybe, just maybe, we can finish up on a good note. My dream scenario is this weekend overperforming bringing much of SE PA right to seasonal snowfall avg then a 'fluke'(?) late Feb/early March SECS pushing us to just above avg for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: 7 minutes ago, The Iceman said: The GEFS and GEPS still are consistently developing a west based NAO in the long range. I must admit I am beginning to take this more seriously now that a pattern change at the end of the month may be imminent. The EPS mean still is not nearly as bullish but towards the end of the run last night you can see the Greenland heights rising in a more west based position. So it is more like what I thought would happen...Delayed but not denied. Will be interesting over the next day to see if the GEFS continues to honk on the -NAO in the same timeframe or if it pushes the look back like the EPS. The GEFS already pushed bringing the west based NAO back but only by 12 hours or so...not a big shift imo Odds of winter returning though by the first week of march or the end of february have increased imo... I am still very hesitant to buy in yet though until we see it popping up in the day 7-8 range. Maybe, just maybe, we can finish up on a good note. My dream scenario is this weekend overperforming bringing much of SE PA right to seasonal snowfall avg then a 'fluke'(?) late Feb/early March SECS pushing us to just above avg for the season. Yeah if we can just do decent this weekend and then score a memorable event with the upcoming blocking, this winter will be a solid B+ maybe even an A- imo. If we finish above average snow in a La nina winter that saw the NAO positive until March then it was a great winter. Fingers crossed man, fingers crossed. It is nice though that we even have a chance and that the LR isn't hopeless. It would be a boring couple of months until Severe season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Personally though with the strong blocking forecasted, I would love to see a historical slow moving Nor'easter that just bombs out even if we changed over to rain. Those slow moving storms that do the loopty loop are my favorite even if they become rainstorms. The last one that was like that was the late Feb storm in 2010 that I think most forget about due to the historical events at the beginning of the month. But that event rocked, we got 4-8 inches of snow and it started and ended as rain...but mostly I remember the wind... was a fun event to cap off that historic stretch. A 24-36 hour event that starts as 8-12" of snow and ends as a inch of rain with heavy winds would be an A+ event in my books. I always wished I was old enough to remember dec 1992 and March 93. I have fuzzy memories of 93 but I can't say I truly experienced it. The following winter is the first one that I truly have memories with all of the ice storms. I would love to experience a storm like 93 again so I could truly appreciate it. If, and this is a big if, the -NAO is -2 or 3 SD and in a west based position, and if we can get the PAC just to be neutral, we will have the potential for a big time synoptic event before we turn the page towards spring. Still a very long way to go before discussing that further though. One can't help but be excited if what the GEFS is showing comes to life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 EKG pattern impending, gotta love today's GFS trying to sneak a smidge of ice in here overnight next Wednesday after two days tickling 70F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 50 minutes ago, RedSky said: EKG pattern impending, gotta love today's GFS trying to sneak a smidge of ice in here overnight next Wednesday after two days tickling 70F. Crazy, that event and the event in the hour 216 time period both trended much much colder from yesterday. To the point that both now will need to be watched as potential snow/ice threats... odds aren't on our side on weds night but that second storm comes just as the NAO is building west so it may be one to watch. GFS has been consistent in beating that SE ridge down like it stole something from its momma. and the beating tends to get worse each run. The torch now only looks to be 2 days tops if the GFS is to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 30 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Crazy, that event and the event in the hour 216 time period both trended much much colder from yesterday. To the point that both now will need to be watched as potential snow/ice threats... odds aren't on our side on weds night but that second storm comes just as the NAO is building west so it may be one to watch. GFS has been consistent in beating that SE ridge down like it stole something from its momma. and the beating tends to get worse each run. The torch now only looks to be 2 days tops if the GFS is to be believed. With new pot holes budding out like the spring crocus it's going to get ugly on the roads maybe not as bad as 2014 but bad enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 hour ago, RedSky said: With new pot holes budding out like the spring crocus it's going to get ugly on the roads maybe not as bad as 2014 but bad enough Within the past week or two it seems like they sprouted out 5-fold. Some parking lots have craters which will engulf my massive Honda Civic into the abyss.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, Birds~69 said: Within the past week or two it seems like they sprouted out 5-fold. Some parking lots have craters which will engulf my massive Honda Civic into the abyss.... I've wrecked 2 rims already this winter in pot holes with my Lancer.. i'm tempted to just hold off on driving around here til spring at this point. With the warm up they have been popping up like zits on a teenagers face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: I've wrecked 2 rims already this winter in pot holes with my Lancer.. i'm tempted to just hold off on driving around here til spring at this point. With the warm up they have been popping up like zits on a teenagers face. I didn't know they still made Lancer's? I had an 86' Lancer and it was a heap of shiet...nothing but problems. Everything that could go wrong, did. Ditched it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Zits, crocuses, sprouts - I like all the metaphors for the pot hole activity. But yeah, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Never seen the roads as bad as what happened in Jan-Feb 2014, 309 was a war zone All these rain storms combined with the EKG pattern are going to be trouble moving forward driving skills will be tested lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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