The Iceman Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Radar looks like there's a fire hose ready to unleash through the entire area. I think 2-3 inches is a given but definitely see spots of 5"+. If only this was all frozen... we may see some flooding of some big waterways though tomorrow night. This is going to be a widespread 3" event imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Like Snow Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 This winter has been one giant punch in the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 2 hours ago, I Like Snow said: This winter has been one giant punch in the face. It's behaving similar to a couple of the top analogs 1990 and 2006. Winter hit in the first half and has been essentially absent post Jan 9th. But yeah just as i feared early in the month we are headed for a possibly historic wet month with near or below normal temperatures and very little snow, something extremely difficult to do in prime time Jan or Feb. For added punch in the gut Algeria Sahara desert region in Africa has had a snowstorm for the second consecutive winter after a 40 year absence and a rare snowstorm in Tehran, Iran. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 7 hours ago, KamuSnow said: I know he hasn't posted here for a while, so he probably won't see this, but I read in the Mt. Holly forecast discussion this evening that Mitchell Gaines is moving from Mt. Holly to Binghamton this week. Thanks Mitch, and good luck! Thanks for the heads-up. I usually read the AFDs in the early morning (3am - 4 am one) and afternoon (3pm - 4pm one) but not so much the evening ones, which is where I found the mention... Given this is my last scheduled forecast shift (departing for WFO BGM next weekend) I want to say thank you to everyone for giving me the opportunity to serve and provide updated weather information to you. It has been a great honor. Wishing Mitchell good luck with that move as well and I expect if he did post again, he could check in to one of the NY forums. Of course he is always welcome here. To throw an obs in - Got 0.37" rain yesterday and am at 0.33" at post time with light rain, some dense fog, and 48F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 11, 2018 Author Share Posted February 11, 2018 Picked up 0.56" of rain yesterday, 0.27" so far today. Storm total up to 0.83" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 .85" already today. Picked up .56" yesterday for an event total of 1.41". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Now up to 0.73" at post time for a total of 1.1" for the 2-day event. Temp is up to 50F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Here in East Nantmeal Township in NW Chesco - 0.75" since midnight and storm total 1.47" since yesterday. Continues to rain temp 46.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief83 Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Worcester, PA. 1.62" rain since it started yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 On the long range front.. may be time to throw in the towel on winter. Once again the good pattern setting up in the long range is a mirage. We may get a fluke event but overall it looks like all she wrote. Hoping we can torch and get an early start to thunderstorm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 As for this storm. Heavy rain at the moment. Up to 1.31" on the day. Still a lot of precip to go though it looks like we will get a bit of a break as the warm front lifts north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 11, 2018 Author Share Posted February 11, 2018 Storm total rainfall up to 1.27" here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Deathband is SE of forecast its a big rain fail up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 1.78" so far for the day and it looks like just occasional showers on the radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 11, 2018 Author Share Posted February 11, 2018 Storm total rainfall up to 1.76" here. Current temp 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 I guess the red winged blackbirds are better at long range forecasting than humans and their super computers. They have been back in the trees behind my house singing and calling since last week. Usually I don't see or hear them until late Feb or early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 5 hours ago, RedSky said: Deathband is SE of forecast its a big rain fail up north Pretty much Philly S/SE are getting hit the hardest. I got grazed w/some heavier stuff earlier but then shifted S/SE. Like now...doing nothing here but Philly S getting stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Time to gas up the mower? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Well, let see...up to 63 degs Right Now in Freehold, NJ! With a shot of lightning n thunder around 2pm thrown in during yesterday and today's incessant torrential rains! Working in garage in shorts n t shirt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 62F here, the high for the day! This is from yesterday, the last of the snow pile (golf ball for size comparison). Perhaps until next year??? That doesn't sound right. This week will surely get the spring fever juices flowing, but I hope we get some snow in March (or this coming weekend, lol). I think 2012 was the last time there was no snow pile at all in March (here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 62F here, the high for the day! This is from yesterday, the last of the snow pile (golf ball for size comparison). Perhaps until next year??? That doesn't sound right. This week will surely get the spring fever juices flowing, but I hope we get some snow in March (or this coming weekend, lol). I think 2012 was the last time there was no snow pile at all in March (here). Grass sure looks mighty green!! Hmmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 12 hours ago, Redmorninglight said: I guess the red winged blackbirds are better at long range forecasting than humans and their super computers. They have been back in the trees behind my house singing and calling since last week. Usually I don't see or hear them until late Feb or early March. Ironically I have never seen any around me. The first time I ever saw one was up in Niagara Falls on the Canadian side about 3 years ago. My high both yesterday and today was 63F (on either side of midnight). Ended up with a total of 1.5" for the event. Temp currently 43 and slowly dropping with overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 well time to invest the rest of my winter energy in the upcoming weekend threat as after that February is looking like a complete washout.. pun intended. things are looking good though for a good pattern for winter to lock in by mid march though so that we'll need well below average temps to get snow... most ensembles give us at least something for this weekend. Could be the storm that gets me to average before winter totally craps out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 I for one will be glad to see an early spring. Its a shame Feb has crapped out, but after the brutal early cold, I am ready for a long spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Here in East Nantmeal in NW Chesco - 1.56" total over the weekend - 3.90" MTD (+2.51") and 6.43" YTD (+1.24") above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 1 hour ago, hazwoper said: I for one will be glad to see an early spring. Its a shame Feb has crapped out, but after the brutal early cold, I am ready for a long spring. I agree with ya. The first half of winter was actually pretty good despite us not getting even a SECS event. Lots of cold and refresher snow events in that Dec into early Jan period. If the early jan blizzard bomb ended up 100 miles further west, almost all of us would be very satisfied on the winter and at or above average snow wise but that's the way she goes. The fact that one came back from Bermuda last minute to give us a decent event was a small miracle in itself. The wind/drifts/bitterly cold temps with that storm made it the most memorable event of this winter, barring a fluke in the coming weeks, despite no one in se pa seeing over 5 inches. Was definitely one of the best winter weather advisory events of all time. Also just the fact most of us are at least close to average snow on the year is very impressive in a la Nina winter in which the NAO hasn't gone negative since the very beginning of December. We could have easily had a ratter like our friends in the mid Atlantic but the small events we did get, we usually overperformed while they got nothing. I'm totally with you on an early spring. After last year's March blizzard fail, unless we are going to see a March 93 esque storm, I would rather see a March 2012 with temps well above normal and an early start to get the garden going than be tracking average snow events that will likely underperform due to temps or sun angle. For every March surprise storm, there are 10 other storms that fail to produce as forecasted due to marginal temps or sun angle wrecking ratios. La Nina's tend to give us good severe threats in spring so let's test our luck there and try again with snow next winter with hopefully a weak El nino and a -NAO for a sustained period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Screw early Spring...hope it's wet/white w/below avg temps. We (almost) always get screwed w/a period of oppressive DP/Temps during Summer. I rather postpone the heat as close as possible to Sept...then enter our good friend Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 I like the increased chance for some wintry precip in parts of the region Feb 16-17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Ensembles trended better overnight towards a light event. Timing looks great being overnight. Still with a high sliding off the coast the metro area will likely have temp issues if this becomes any more amped. But at least we don't have a stupid great lakes low scouring out the cold ahead of the storm. Still, except for north and west areas, I bet temps will be an issue as we don't have an Arctic air mass ahead of the storm. We really won't have an idea about these details until Thursday but it is something to watch and may be one of our final snow threats if some Twitter long range Mets are correct. Seems to be a split consensus between an early spring beginning next week and the NAO going negative and retrograding to west based over Greenland giving us a great pattern in early March. We have seen several times this winter where guidance shows a great pattern in the day 13-15 range only for it to crap out as we get closer. Combine that with the highly anomalous SSW event going on right now and I think most longer range guidance should be taken very lightly. I think we will see some pretty wild swings in the long range as the models try to figure out the ramifications, if any, of this SSW event. I am still leaning towards early spring this morning though with winter being over after this weekend's storm as I just do not believe long range guidance will verify regarding a neg NAO in the day 13-15 period. I think like normal this will likely be delayed and the SE ridge will linger longer than currently modeled especially if the models are correct in it's strength during the day 7-10 range. I think we eventually get the neg nao but by then it will be mid March and we will need other help besides a neg nao to get a significant event. I hope I am wrong but as of now I am leaning towards Steve Ds thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 After nursing my Rosemary plant through a couple of winters, this years extreme cold during the 2 weeks after Christmas just did it in. That was probably the most brutal cold I can remember around here. Yes we have had colder, but not 2 weeks worth like this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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