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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread


Rtd208

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GFS op has a better look at 120 hours than prior runs with a sprawled out thick dome of cold hp stretching across the Northern tier of the country. I could see this look working with waves and overunning riding South ala gradient event or a SWFE sorta thing. Not giving up on the Feb 10-16 range I mentioned before.107e0673684fd1291e303e76213e8982.jpg&key=407a3d65a7242df64c5eea3ad33baac428d49b9e3fbffcf34bf1c6217b142321c2311675c52d0006113787481551d073.jpg

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18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS op has a better look at 120 hours than prior runs with a sprawled out thick dome of cold hp stretching across the Northern tier of the country. I could see this look working with waves and overunning riding South ala gradient event or a SWFE sorta thing. Not giving up on the Feb 10-16 range I mentioned before.107e0673684fd1291e303e76213e8982.jpg&key=407a3d65a7242df64c5eea3ad33baac428d49b9e3fbffcf34bf1c6217b142321c2311675c52d0006113787481551d073.jpg

Yep, it will still take some timing luck with no blocking in that time period but with that high, it increases our chances of getting lucky. Any wave will likely be a a borderline event as seen on the OP as these waves are rain at the moment, but it would not take much tweaking at all to get those waves to be an actual snow to rain event(not like today) or even a wet snow event. The 2m temps are very close to supporting a snow event. I agree with you that next week will offer several chances at snow with these waves. But I would favor again N and W areas as having the best shot at these. With zero help from the atlantic that is about the best we can hope for at this point. It doesn't scream snow set up to me but at least we will have a chance. To me we will need a lot of help with the event on the 11. The 13-16th period though has potential if we can get some trends of cooler air working down from Canada. It is close and we don't really need significant changes to see one of the waves be a 3-6 or 2-4" type storm.

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Just moved up to 33F here with light rain. Look who showed up about an hour ago! A few days late, don't think he saw his shadow. I guess we wait a week or two and see how things shake out after this stratospheric PV split. Return to winter not necessarily guaranteed, but I like to believe that we aren't done yet.

Groundhog-2-07-18.jpg

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14 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Just moved up to 33F here with light rain. Look who showed up about an hour ago! A few days late, don't think he saw his shadow. I guess we wait a week or two and see how things shake out after this stratospheric PV split. Return to winter not necessarily guaranteed, but I like to believe that we aren't done yet.

Groundhog-2-07-18.jpg

Kamu's groundhog says six more weeks of ice people after falling on it's butt

 

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Yep, it will still take some timing luck with no blocking in that time period but with that high, it increases our chances of getting lucky. Any wave will likely be a a borderline event as seen on the OP as these waves are rain at the moment, but it would not take much tweaking at all to get those waves to be an actual snow to rain event(not like today) or even a wet snow event. The 2m temps are very close to supporting a snow event. I agree with you that next week will offer several chances at snow with these waves. But I would favor again N and W areas as having the best shot at these. With zero help from the atlantic that is about the best we can hope for at this point. It doesn't scream snow set up to me but at least we will have a chance. To me we will need a lot of help with the event on the 11. The 13-16th period though has potential if we can get some trends of cooler air working down from Canada. It is close and we don't really need significant changes to see one of the waves be a 3-6 or 2-4" type storm.
Agreed with this. Chances abound but timing challenges and temp issues PHL S and E.
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20 minutes ago, Stormman96 said:

Wow is right.  Its just unbelievable how bad weather forecasting has become.  I know weather isnt an exact science and will never be perfect. But I have been following the weather for the last 30 years and it seems the accuracy is getting worse not better 

I don't really watch TV Weather cause I believe most of it ratings driven, I could be wrong. I just go by Mt Holly, yeah they get it wrong to but more often than not they are very close. Their forecast discussions are very detailed. 

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48 minutes ago, Stormman96 said:

Wow is right.  Its just unbelievable how bad weather forecasting has become.  I know weather isnt an exact science and will never be perfect. But I have been following the weather for the last 30 years and it seems the accuracy is getting worse not better 

Well, we all know weather forecasting is highly reliant on models nowadays. I wonder if weather models have been integrated with such high resolution that they have, somehow, become too susceptible to the fluid nature of the weather and atmosphere, hence why they jump around so much? This assessment is probably wrong and incorrect, but I've always thought that maybe the models have too high resolution, if possible. Also, I'm not sure how weather models verified decades ago so I for one can't vouch if the models have gotten better or worse.

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1 hour ago, penndotguy said:

I don't really watch TV Weather cause I believe most of it ratings driven, I could be wrong. I just go by Mt Holly, yeah they get it wrong to but more often than not they are very close. Their forecast discussions are very detailed. 

Agreed! I can't tell you the last time I watched local news for weather. The best source continues to be the NWSFO in Mount Holly...we are fortunate to have in my opinion the best forecast office in the country. Thank you Mount Holly professionals!!

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