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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread


Rtd208

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The hi res WRF-ARW models both show the cold hanging on much longer than the NAM and temps struggling to get above freezing for N and W areas until the end of the storm. In fact, it looks very similar to the RGEM. Decent thump even for extreme se pa. Big shift from their 00z runs with regard to temps and how much precip falls as snow across the area. 

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WXSIM with 12z pretty consistent with 6z with a little less ZR accumulation

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening, becoming partly to mostly cloudy after
 midnight. A slight chance of snow after midnight. Low 24. Wind northwest around
 3 mph in the evening, becoming east-northeast after midnight. Chance of
 precipitation 20 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a
 tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about a quarter inch.
 
 Wednesday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog in the afternoon. A mix of snow,
 sleet, and freezing rain likely in the morning, then a mix of freezing rain,
 rain, and sleet likely in the afternoon. High 34. Wind east-southeast around 5
 mph in the morning, becoming south-southwest in the afternoon. Chance of
 precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1 and
 2 inches. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Above-ground
 freezing rain accumulation up to 0.5 inches.

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The hi res WRF-ARW models both show the cold hanging on much longer than the NAM and temps struggling to get above freezing for N and W areas until the end of the storm. In fact, it looks very similar to the RGEM. Decent thump even for extreme se pa. Big shift from their 00z runs with regard to temps and how much precip falls as snow across the area. 
Ill note the wrf arw2 performed the best with Sundays storm

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18z data came in slightly colder here in NW Chester County and the WXSIM is now forecasting a somewhat tougher time getting us above freezing....still gets us there but barely. Also raises the ice accumulation back up to 0.7" 

Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy. A slight chance of snow after midnight. Low 23. Wind northwest around 2 mph in the evening, becoming east-northeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent)      mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about a quarter inch. Wednesday: Dense overcast. A mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain likely in the morning, then a mix of freezing rain and sleet likely in the afternoon. High 33.     Wind southeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about an inch. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.7 inches.  

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No snow at all ? Seems odd cape May has snow and u wouldn’t 

Snow is starting to mix in with the sleet. I'm also headed a bit further north on my way to work. Not sure we will sniff the WWA 2-4".

 

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Edit: all snow now headed a few miles north towards fleetwood. Moderate snow all roads covered. We will see how long we can hold onto the snow.

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30F and light frz. rain and sleet. Waaahh :(. Got all the way down to 23F at 2 am this morning, followed by 5 hours of sleep, so I'm not sure what time it started (probably around 6:00 - 6:30), or if it even started as snow. Looks like no, due to the lack of even a dusting. Not really into freezing rain here, but we'll see how long it takes to warm up. Good luck to all the northern people, hope you get a boatload of snow!

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