E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread

[RedSky]

15 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

I like 3-6 for the LV and 4-8 Poconos. With up to .15" ZR depending on when it changes over

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You have the ECM and NAM in your corner, although the ECM blew it with Lehigh Valley snow accumulations yesterday what happened to it's 4-6"

 

[RedSky]

My driveways are 1/2" of ice now going to be rough on Wednesday

 

[anthonyweather]

You have the ECM and NAM in your corner, although the ECM blew it with Lehigh Valley snow accumulations yesterday what happened to it's 4-6"

 

12k nam and wrf-arw2 at 00z Saturday night had the best verification amongst all others. Saved all the images to look back at. Although every model was over done in north central PA. I finished with 4", as most of the carbon monroe area, Lehigh valley had 1-2" .

 

 

 

No model handles CAD well, and the Lehigh Valley never went above freezing, which just about every model had a peak storm temp of 36°. After the game last night the normal 20 minute drive home lasted over an hour, having to find multiple detours due to cars stuck on hills. Never let off the throttle in 4x4 was able to sneak off on unplowed side rides to avoid getting stuck on those hills. Those unplowed roads had the best traction

 

Now we have snow pack so I expect we don't make it to 30-31. Wildcard will be how fast the upper levels warm.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Newman]

I agree that the low level cold air will be hard to scour out. Sunday's storm had high pressure in an unfavorable position and had a parent low well NW into the Great Lakes. This storm Wednesday has a High Pressure up north in a much better position for CAD and there is no Great Lakes low to peel the mid-levels back west. I never got above 32 degrees here yesterday and most models, even up until start time, were too warm at the surface. Now, up above is a different story as I think the SW push of the upper-levels will eventually warm and create sleet/freezing rain. The low level cold air will stick around, IMO, and models will have a tough time showing that. Based on what just happened yesterday, I think much of the Lehigh Valley experiences a lot more ice than models show or will show.

[anthonyweather]

18z nam paints a pretty nasty picture for LV and Poconos

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[Rtd208]

Picked up around 0.75" of rain yesterday.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Ok, now that the birds are done...Can someone give me a quick update on what the coming weeks look like? I am now ready for 1 good storm tracking and this will be the best winter ever.

Looks like the snow Gods heard our prayers and sent us the Super Bowl in sacrifice of snow. Looks like we are done for accum snow this winter (phl immediate bjrbs s and e) if u believe the LR stuff and an early start to spring.

 

[The Iceman]

36 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks like the snow Gods heard our prayers and sent us the Super Bowl in sacrifice of snow. Looks like we are done for accum snow this winter (phl immediate bjrbs s and e) if u believe the LR stuff and an early start to spring.

 

Yep, not gonna lie I thought feb looked good towards end if jan but back when I did my winter forecast almost every analog looked bleak for February so I'm not shocked this is the outcome. We ll probably get an early spring til mid March then we ll get a great winter pattern

[Ralph Wiggum]

Yep, not gonna lie I thought feb looked good towards end if jan but back when I did my winter forecast almost every analog looked bleak for February so I'm not shocked this is the outcome. We ll probably get an early spring til mid March then we ll get a great winter pattern

Strong -nao coming mid April with long-duration cold rainy coastal storm probably.

[Stormman96]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks like the snow Gods heard our prayers and sent us the Super Bowl in sacrifice of snow. Looks like we are done for accum snow this winter (phl immediate bjrbs s and e) if u believe the LR stuff and an early start to spring.

 

Wow. Very bold call about being totally done with accumulating snow this wonter i hope your being sarcastic. To make that cam when only feb 5th

[The Iceman]

16 minutes ago, Stormman96 said:

Wow. Very bold call about being totally done with accumulating snow this wonter i hope your being sarcastic. To make that cam when only feb 5th

He's right though. Long range looks awful for the metro area. Steve is a respected amateur here, he wouldn't just say that to say that. There is nothing in the next 15 days that looks even ok for accumulating snow outside of north and west areas. 

[Stormman96]

Ok an just a few weeks ago im pretty saw he like many others called for a cold an stormy February. DId he not??? Also in. 36 hours their could be an inch or so in Philadelphia an more North N west

[RedSky]

Holding onto the possibility of 1-2" here Wednesday 

Next couple weeks beyond look bleak for winter weather

Not liking the idea of cold returning late month and March jeez not again

 

 

[The Iceman]

1 hour ago, Stormman96 said:

Ok an just a few weeks ago im pretty saw he like many others called for a cold an stormy February. DId he not??? Also in. 36 hours their could be an inch or so in Philadelphia an more North N west

Don't think he ever called for that. Just said the long range looked to be more favorable but that we would be on the battleground. Philly has very little chance at an inch in 36 hours. Any model showing that is showing sleet. 

[Stormman96]

Ok im pretty sure he called for something big to happen in the feb 10th to 16 timeframe snowwise. If he didnt say that the. My apologies 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Ok im pretty sure he called for something big to happen in the feb 10th to 16 timeframe snowwise. If he didnt say that the. My apologies 

If you go back I said Feb 10-16 is a range I am watching for something more substantial than these fropa events we had been getting.....and I do still like that range for 'something' centered around V-Day. However, I think Philly proper is in big trouble "IF you believe the LR guidance" which is exactly what I said. I never definitely came out with any statement saying cancel winter, its over, Im certain, etc. I stated the facts.....LR guidance looks like crap and is signaling a transition to spring as we head into March which actually matches my seasonal outlook for a return to a regular kind of winter here......cold when its supposed to be, the usual Jan thaw, then the transition to a springish pattern as March approaches. Please dont put words into my mouth by stating I spoke in definitives cancelling winter as Im not irresponsible. Again, what I was "if you believe LR guidance". NW of PHL as always will have better chances but LR stuff in general clearly advertises the regular look we see as Feb moves forward with increasingly bigger challenges PHL S and E.  

 

 

[The Iceman]

The record MJO pulse into phase 6 ruined our February in the metro area and I don't think anyone saw that coming nor can it really be predicted. Now it's projected to move into a more favorable phase and we will likely get a SSW event but both of these are lag events. It will be weeks until we feel the effects and by that time it could be mid march... The current pulse is looks to impact our pattern through at least the 15th... I don't think winter is over as we may get a fluke march event. But my enthusiam for winter storms decreases dramatically after the first week of March. Even with the first week of March, 9 times out of 10 March storms bust for the coastal plain/city. It truly take a great set up to see a meaningful event. Maybe the pattern dramatically shifts after next week but I am not sold on it at all.  I thought it was a given I would reach average snowfall(23.4") this year hitting 20" in mid january but now I think that we don't reach it or if we do just barely.

[The Iceman]

Final call for this event

Poconos/ NE PA - Large thump ending as freezing rain..Further inland will be mostly snow. 4-8" snow with significant icing possible. Setting up to be a high impact winter event. Heavy snow in the morning flipping to ice in the afternoon. I don't believe this area ever changes to plain rain. If snow changes to sleet/frz rain earlier than expected, a major ice event could occur with tree and power line damage as well as incredibly dangerous road conditions.

Lehigh Valley - 3-6" of snow followed by a significant icing event. I don't think KABE ever changes over to plain rain but I think the area changes to FRZ rain earlier than projected. This could be a fairly significant ice storm in this region as I just don't think the area goes over the freezing mark until most of the precip is out of here. This is the hardest area to forecast as a degree will make the difference between snow, ice or rain. I do not envy forecasters in this region but if you live here be prepared for possibly a major ice event.

Central bucks/Montgomery/West Chester N and W - 1-3" of snow followed by a  period of sleet/freezing rain ending as plain rain. The further NW you are located in this region, the more likely you are stay frozen longer or stay frozen the entire event. This is where the gradient between a significant winter event and nuisance event will be imo Could see southern areas having just the morning be impacted while northern areas having it be a significant event all day with possible. Someone here will feel screwed as a few miles may be the difference between big ice storm and plain rain storm.

Lower Bucks/Central Jersey South and East - Trace-1" followed by a brief period of sleet/freezing rain with majority rain. Like above the amount of frozen will depend on how N and W you are located but ultimately this will not be a big deal for these areas save for the timing possibly causing issues for morning commute. Latest models have really even cut back the front end thump here so it's possible this area doesn't seem more than a few flurries to start before quickly flipping over to rain. I'd expect it to be similar to sunday and be pleasantly surprised if we get a period of snow. If you believe the meso models, a squall line may set up tomorrow afternoon.

[ChescoWx]

Wxsim with 6z data - has snow starting by 6am with S+ by 7am and a heavy mix of snow/IP by 9am then ZR by late AM...it shows temps briefly getting to 33.5 by 3pm and then slipping a bit - very similar to Sunday. Of note - still ice and snow in the trees and even on my road here in East Nantmeal - also snowing lightly currently at 27.3

.

Wednesday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog in the afternoon. A mix of snow,
 sleet, and freezing rain likely in the morning, then a mix of freezing rain,
 rain, and sleet likely in the afternoon. High 34. Wind east around 5 mph in the
 morning, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80
 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1 and 2 inches. Snow
 or ice (on ground) accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Above-ground freezing rain
 accumulation up to 0.7 inches.

[anthonyweather]

Final call for this event
Poconos/ NE PA - Large thump ending as freezing rain..Further inland will be mostly snow. 4-8" snow with significant icing possible. Setting up to be a high impact winter event. Heavy snow in the morning flipping to ice in the afternoon. I don't believe this area ever changes to plain rain. If snow changes to sleet/frz rain earlier than expected, a major ice event could occur with tree and power line damage as well as incredibly dangerous road conditions.
Lehigh Valley - 3-6" of snow followed by a significant icing event. I don't think KABE ever changes over to plain rain but I think the area changes to FRZ rain earlier than projected. This could be a fairly significant ice storm in this region as I just don't think the area goes over the freezing mark until most of the precip is out of here. This is the hardest area to forecast as a degree will make the difference between snow, ice or rain. I do not envy forecasters in this region but if you live here be prepared for possibly a major ice event.
Central bucks/Montgomery/West Chester N and W - 1-3" of snow followed by a  period of sleet/freezing rain ending as plain rain. The further NW you are located in this region, the more likely you are stay frozen longer or stay frozen the entire event. This is where the gradient between a significant winter event and nuisance event will be imo Could see southern areas having just the morning be impacted while northern areas having it be a significant event all day with possible. Someone here will feel screwed as a few miles may be the difference between big ice storm and plain rain storm.
Lower Bucks/Central Jersey South and East - Trace-1" followed by a brief period of sleet/freezing rain with majority rain. Like above the amount of frozen will depend on how N and W you are located but ultimately this will not be a big deal for these areas save for the timing possibly causing issues for morning commute. Latest models have really even cut back the front end thump here so it's possible this area doesn't seem more than a few flurries to start before quickly flipping over to rain. I'd expect it to be similar to sunday and be pleasantly surprised if we get a period of snow. If you believe the meso models, a squall line may set up tomorrow afternoon.

I concur. As does wfmz surprisingly

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[penndotguy]

25 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Final call for this event

Poconos/ NE PA - Large thump ending as freezing rain..Further inland will be mostly snow. 4-8" snow with significant icing possible. Setting up to be a high impact winter event. Heavy snow in the morning flipping to ice in the afternoon. I don't believe this area ever changes to plain rain. If snow changes to sleet/frz rain earlier than expected, a major ice event could occur with tree and power line damage as well as incredibly dangerous road conditions.

Lehigh Valley - 3-6" of snow followed by a significant icing event. I don't think KABE ever changes over to plain rain but I think the area changes to FRZ rain earlier than projected. This could be a fairly significant ice storm in this region as I just don't think the area goes over the freezing mark until most of the precip is out of here. This is the hardest area to forecast as a degree will make the difference between snow, ice or rain. I do not envy forecasters in this region but if you live here be prepared for possibly a major ice event.

Central bucks/Montgomery/West Chester N and W - 1-3" of snow followed by a  period of sleet/freezing rain ending as plain rain. The further NW you are located in this region, the more likely you are stay frozen longer or stay frozen the entire event. This is where the gradient between a significant winter event and nuisance event will be imo Could see southern areas having just the morning be impacted while northern areas having it be a significant event all day with possible. Someone here will feel screwed as a few miles may be the difference between big ice storm and plain rain storm.

Lower Bucks/Central Jersey South and East - Trace-1" followed by a brief period of sleet/freezing rain with majority rain. Like above the amount of frozen will depend on how N and W you are located but ultimately this will not be a big deal for these areas save for the timing possibly causing issues for morning commute. Latest models have really even cut back the front end thump here so it's possible this area doesn't seem more than a few flurries to start before quickly flipping over to rain. I'd expect it to be similar to sunday and be pleasantly surprised if we get a period of snow. If you believe the meso models, a squall line may set up tomorrow afternoon.

Out here in Berks we went above freezing late night but up till then we had a decent icing event trees and walkways mainly but that was after 2" of snow had fallen. we still have the albeit its frozen glacier at this point. are you thinking it could be worse this time? 

[The Iceman]

12 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

Out here in Berks we went above freezing late night but up till then we had a decent icing event trees and walkways mainly but that was after 2" of snow had fallen. we still have the albeit its frozen glacier at this point. are you thinking it could be worse this time? 

Yeah, up in Berks I definitely think this event will be worse than Sunday for you guys. It will either be much more snow or much more ice but either way I think it will be a more significant impact event up there as opposed to Sunday's event. I think the low level cold will be more locked in than Sunday and this event has more precip with it. There is going to be a narrow area in the Lehigh Valley or Pocono's that is going to get a major crippling Ice storm imo...

[The Iceman]

Interestingly, the RGEM came in much cooler than the NAM and shows a thumps of snow even down to Philly. Beginning of a trend?

[Mikeymac5306]

1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

Final call for this event

Poconos/ NE PA - Large thump ending as freezing rain..Further inland will be mostly snow. 4-8" snow with significant icing possible. Setting up to be a high impact winter event. Heavy snow in the morning flipping to ice in the afternoon. I don't believe this area ever changes to plain rain. If snow changes to sleet/frz rain earlier than expected, a major ice event could occur with tree and power line damage as well as incredibly dangerous road conditions.

Lehigh Valley - 3-6" of snow followed by a significant icing event. I don't think KABE ever changes over to plain rain but I think the area changes to FRZ rain earlier than projected. This could be a fairly significant ice storm in this region as I just don't think the area goes over the freezing mark until most of the precip is out of here. This is the hardest area to forecast as a degree will make the difference between snow, ice or rain. I do not envy forecasters in this region but if you live here be prepared for possibly a major ice event.

Central bucks/Montgomery/West Chester N and W - 1-3" of snow followed by a  period of sleet/freezing rain ending as plain rain. The further NW you are located in this region, the more likely you are stay frozen longer or stay frozen the entire event. This is where the gradient between a significant winter event and nuisance event will be imo Could see southern areas having just the morning be impacted while northern areas having it be a significant event all day with possible. Someone here will feel screwed as a few miles may be the difference between big ice storm and plain rain storm.

Lower Bucks/Central Jersey South and East - Trace-1" followed by a brief period of sleet/freezing rain with majority rain. Like above the amount of frozen will depend on how N and W you are located but ultimately this will not be a big deal for these areas save for the timing possibly causing issues for morning commute. Latest models have really even cut back the front end thump here so it's possible this area doesn't seem more than a few flurries to start before quickly flipping over to rain. I'd expect it to be similar to sunday and be pleasantly surprised if we get a period of snow. If you believe the meso models, a squall line may set up tomorrow afternoon.

By West Chester, do you mean Western Chester County, or the Borough of West Chester which is in Eastern Chester County? 

[The Iceman]

4 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

By West Chester, do you mean Western Chester County, or the Borough of West Chester which is in Eastern Chester County? 

I meant Chester county in general, West Chester was just the first thing that popped in my head. 

 

[The Iceman]

Something interesting to watch today is that we may have a big temp bust if the clouds don't dissipate soon. My forecast high was 40F and right now I'm at 31. If the clouds hang around I really don't see us getting above 35 or 36. Will be interesting to see what effect, if any, this has on the lows tonight and the cold air in place for tomorrow. 

[Newman]

Models seem to be coming in warmer with less snow. Not worried, though, as just like last storm, every model was too warm with the surface temps. However, as Iceman said, I expect more icing than snow. For the Lehigh Valley I would call 2-4" then a flip to sleet and freezing rain. The last 2 hours or so might switch to plain rain with temps around 33-34. My forecasted high right now is 37 for tomorrow which is the same it was on Sunday and I never got above 33. We'll see how it goes though. Could be the last storm for many until the end of February or beginning of March.

[The Iceman]

KABE forecasted Hi 36, Currently 29

KTTN forecasted Hi 40, Currently 31

KPHL forecasted Hi 41, Currently 33

KDYL forecasted Hi 36, Currently 29

KRDG forecasted Hi 37, Currently 29

Each station is reporting cloudy or overcast skies as well, and stations well to west still are reporting overcast. It does not look likely we will see prolonged sun today.

Going to need to see some warming of at least 3 or 4 degrees region wide in the next 2 hours to have a shot at even coming close to those highs. If we come up significantly short like I think we do by 3 or 4 degrees, it will be interesting to see what effect this has, if any, on tomorrow.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Interestingly, the RGEM came in much cooler than the NAM and shows a thumps of snow even down to Philly. Beginning of a trend?

CMC camp is always colder.

[The Iceman]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

55 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Interestingly, the RGEM came in much cooler than the NAM and shows a thumps of snow even down to Philly. Beginning of a trend?

CMC camp is always colder.

On the flip side, the NAM and GFS tend to be too warm in these situations. Just look back to Sunday where they were unanimously too quick in dislodging the cold air in N and W areas. They all flipped those area's to rain when in actuality they never hit above freezing until the precip was either done or winding down. Expecting it to be similar here. Plus the set up for CAD is better than Sunday, not great by any means, but definitely better.