Newman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Nam (yes I know!) at 84 hrs (Yeah, even worse!) shows a near phase or imminent phase. What appears to be happening is a separate low is forming in the gulf after the one we were following earlier for possible impacts for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 CMC and UKMET also jumped considerably farther West wrt Friday. 6z GFS took a couple of ticks closer as well tho not quite as extreme. Here is the CMC snowfall map that will likely look completely different in a few hours. Friday forecast has yet to be resolved with relatively large shifts still evident: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 GFS OP has been very anti-snow for us lately. Here is accumulated snowfall thru December 22 as depicted on the 6z GFS OP. Really dislikes extreme SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Hmmm 12z namSent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS OP has been very anti-snow for us lately. Here is accumulated snowfall thru December 22 as depicted on the 6z GFS OP. Really dislikes extreme SE PA. The long range euro has looked similar. The retro 80's look a time of many cold December's and if you saw 3 or 4" snow it was December to remember. What is not good is the dry weeklies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 The GFS and NAM through 78 are significantly different in precip distribution. GFS brings light precip into only extreme S NJ. Even further SE than 6z which looked to be trending in the other direction. I still don't think this storm is set in stone. Obviously I would put more weight in the GFS at this time, but this is really the first significant event in the new pattern which is why I think we are seeing such a disparity in models. NAM does sometimes score a coup especially in this kind of situation where the pattern is just getting established. Will be interesting to see the CMC shortly to see if it holds serve from 00z. It looked almost identical to the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 CMC holds serve from last run, in fact it came a bit further west. This would be a very solid event from the LV and south. 1-3" N and W burbs, 3-5" from bucks county and south to the del river with 3 more common to the north and 5 more common to the river. Then 5-8" for most of SNJ if temps hold. So right now we have the NAM and CMC in the further west camp this weekend with the CMC being the furthest west solution and the NAM getting much of SE PA in the game. Also the NAVGEM continues to be the furthest west of all the models which is usually the furthest SE as Ralph has pointed out. Then we have the GFS trending further away. Will be interesting to see UKMET and EURO if these make any changes. If EURO holds with a non event, it is hard to bet against the GFS and EURO but they have folded before... This could be a storm that sees dramatic shifts even within 48 hours due to the set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 12z GFS says "hey philly area we know you like narrowly missing snow events, so we're going to give you another near miss all over again next Wednesday but this time the low is going to bomb to give the fishes a healthy SECS". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 CmcSent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I wish CMC wasn't a bad model, actually i don't know what a good model is anymore after last winters euro blizzard bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 The CMC and GFS begin to diverge after hour 24. CMC has precip further north and west than the GFS at every frame after that. We would have a pretty good idea which one is verifying better tomorrow morning. It's pretty crazy the uncertainty for 48 hours out in parts of the south. GFS says nothing for basically anyone besides the mountain peaks while the CMC gives northern miss/bama/Ga into NC and TN a pretty significant accumulating snow event. NAM is in between those 2 solutions but would still be some accumulating snow for a large part of the south. And this is less than 48 hours out for them. How that verifies should give us a good idea of which way this storm is leaning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Rumor has it crazy uncle is tracking it inside the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: I wish CMC wasn't a bad model, actually i don't know what a good model is anymore after last winters euro blizzard bust CMC was one of the only models to call the warm layer cutting into snow totals for our area in that storm. Both CMC and NAM showed significantly less frozen than the other models and we threw them out because "it's GFS and Euro under 48 hours both saying blizzard...what could go wrong?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Ukie is a good model my interest is now peaked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Windshield Wiper Affect? Models might start to begin to converge on a solution but it could also trend back east. Cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Gfs vs the world trends right nowSent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 12z ukSent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 12z UK precip. Wtf!!! Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: 12z UK precip. Wtf!!! Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk That is just through hr 72 the bulk will fall close to 84hr ends up tracking on the Maine coast so has to follow the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 That is just through hr 72 the bulk will fall close to 84hr ends up tracking on the Maine coast so has to follow the benchmark Yes. Interesting Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 so it's now UK/CMC/EPS/NAM/NAVGEM/SREF'S vs GFS/EURO. 12z Euro is big. UKmet used to show which way the euro would trend but last year that wasn't the case at all. Hate to say it but this 12z euro run has Grinch/Dr.No written all over it. It would be surprising to see the Euro shift towards the other globals. I'm thinking small tick at best. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: so it's now UK/CMC/EPS/NAM/NAVGEM/SREF'S vs GFS/EURO. 12z Euro is big. UKmet used to show which way the euro would trend but last year that wasn't the case at all. Hate to say it but this 12z euro run has Grinch/Dr.No written all over it. It would be surprising to see the Euro shift towards the other globals. I'm thinking small tick at best. We'll see... TBH wasn't expecting this to trend west even though we so often see it. The Ukie usually serves as a guide to what the Euro may show which is nice. If the Euro trends towards or even jumps to a huge run, its only the GFS left on its own. Getting a little excited right now, mostly because I haven't seen December snow in a couple years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 6z vs 12z UK met total qpfSent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 ^damn! I expect the euro to tick west to the point where it was hammering south jersey but still screws us NW settlers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 GFS and CMC ensembles are both still east. This threat certainly isn't dead yet but we'll need a significant shift west from the Euro today to really start taking this threat seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: GFS and CMC ensembles are both still east. This threat certainly isn't dead yet but we'll need a significant shift west from the Euro today to really start taking this threat seriously. Haven't the GEFS been proven to always follow the OP? Not sure about the GEPS as I don't typically look at them, or the GGEM for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 We are at that critical stage where maybe better sampling led to the Ukie track, I am not concerned about the GFS yet it's cheat sheet likely blew out the window Big big euro run big big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 ECM no changes. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 We are at that critical stage where maybe better sampling led to the Ukie track, I am not concerned about the GFS yet it's cheat sheet likely blew out the window Big big euro run big big Dr no is Dr no. At about the same position as 0z. Maybe a HAIR SESent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 ECM blew a blizzard with a 12hr lead I don't know where this going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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