Birds~69 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 3 hours ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Got to put it down cause all it takes is one old lady to call and say she can't get out of her cul de sac. Anyway, Anything regarding Sunday's event that just popped up? Not happy I might have to work during the game. When it's needed...yes. Didn't need to treat roads today at all...period. At the very least wait a bit and not pre brine. The forecast was pretty obvious the roads would remain wet... As far as the Birds. Call out sick, quit, hire a hit man on your boss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 23 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Or a combination? I'm sure it is...but really what's the point? And I bet many (older folks more so) thought it was 4" , 5" etc rather than four tenths and five tenths. (decimal point is small/graphics aren't the best) Overall I just would have said coating to 1" Philly and immediate burbs...maybe a little more in the distant N/W burbs. (Lehigh Valley) Hey I resemble that! Although I will admit to zooming in for clarification, lol. (I was sitting outside on the porch looking at weather stuff on my phone). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 GEFS for the 2/5 event look real nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 GEFS for the 2/5 event look real nice. GEPS is a touch slower but came West with 24hr accum precip panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 hour ago, KamuSnow said: Hey I resemble that! Although I will admit to zooming in for clarification, lol. (I was sitting outside on the porch looking at weather stuff on my phone). Believe I'm no young pup either....gotta get the reading glasses on to see some of this stuff. (laptop, but the phone is a real pain in the ass!) Anyhow, let's get some snow for you....this "pile" is on life support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 last nights model runs were a disaster at least for the 95 area. The 2/4-2/5 event looks like a classic snow to rain for the coastal plain/metro area and snow for lehigh valley. Don't like the look of it at all for philly and immediate burbs. in the long range, we have threats but they just all look too warm. No -NAO and the -epo looks flatter as well. Not good trends. I don't think we completely strike out but I also don't like our chances for anything more than a 3-6" type deal. Our best shot is likely going to be thump events and those do not typically work out well for the metro area. Hopefully we trend more favorable today. It is pretty amazing that we are going to have yet another winter with almost no periods of -NAO activity. It seems in the last 20 years that for every -NAO winter 4 or 5 +NAO winters follow. This winter is pretty remarkable in that it has been basically uniformly positive since dec. 1st. We get a few days but it never can lock in like the +NAO has. Hopefully we can buck the trend before March. Getting the NAO flipping to negative finally in mid march is just a kick in the pants imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: last nights model runs were a disaster at least for the 95 area. The 2/4-2/5 event looks like a classic snow to rain for the coastal plain/metro area and snow for lehigh valley. Don't like the look of it at all for philly and immediate burbs. in the long range, we have threats but they just all look too warm. No -NAO and the -epo looks flatter as well. Not good trends. I don't think we completely strike out but I also don't like our chances for anything more than a 3-6" type deal. Our best shot is likely going to be thump events and those do not typically work out well for the metro area. Hopefully we trend more favorable today. It is pretty amazing that we are going to have yet another winter with almost no periods of -NAO activity. It seems in the last 20 years that for every -NAO winter 4 or 5 +NAO winters follow. This winter is pretty remarkable in that it has been basically uniformly positive since dec. 1st. We get a few days but it never can lock in like the +NAO has. Hopefully we can buck the trend before March. Getting the NAO flipping to negative finally in mid march is just a kick in the pants imo -NAO in mid March will help the interior and maybe philly burbs with elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 12z gfs - disaster for everyone this weekend. even the pocono's flip to rain. the trend of storms not amplifying in the day 5 range this year isn't there leading me to believe this one is coming further west/much more amped than advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 12z cmc says hold up...doesn't amplify...is just cold enough to snow all the way to the coast and drops 6-10" region wide. not as much precip but we stay all snow. this solution is about the only way this threat works out for the majority of the area. LV and Pocono's have a little bit more lee way but for the coast, this solution can't strengthen or weaken the low as too strong and we bring too much warmth, and too weak and we don't get precip, and the track basically has to stay the same the next 96 hours. basically if this produces, we got hella lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Seasonal trend this winter is the blind squirrel finds the nut I feel hopeful for Superbowl snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Christ, rain and a SB loss = Bridge jumping.......snow and a SB win = super happiness. What a fine line we're dealing with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Christ, rain and a SB loss = Bridge jumping.......snow and a SB win = super happiness. What a fine line we're dealing with... nice to know that I could die of happiness or of suicide sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 9 minutes ago, The Iceman said: nice to know that I could die of happiness or of suicide sunday night I'll easily take gushing rains and a Birds win much quicker that a Birds loss and a ft+ blizzard. Somehow I don't want to get screwed on both ends... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: I'll easily take gushing rains and a Birds win much quicker that a Birds loss and a ft+ blizzard. Somehow I don't want to get screwed on both ends... I'll take nothing but rain the next 5 winters for a birds win... but if they lose, we better at least get a blizzard this month as a consolation prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Don't want to think Ji-negative.. concentrate on the Birds. Weather will take it's course one way or another...always next/later this year. Birds are present... Speaking of Ji...horrible trade by Wash..Alex Smith? 4yr/94mil...71mil guaranteed...lol. Synder is braindead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 12z Euro for the 2/4-2/5 storm. 4 inch line runs from Lancaster-Reading-Allentown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 SREF's have increased snow for the Thursday night-Friday deal. Comparison's from 15z to 21z: RDG: 0.58-2.24" ABE: 0.41-2.31" PTW: 0.53-2.36" TTN: 0.64-2.58" PHL: 0.70-2.06" Whether the frontal passage produces backside snow or not, the Friday morning commute could be impacted by a *potential* flash freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 last nights model runs were a disaster at least for the 95 area. The 2/4-2/5 event looks like a classic snow to rain for the coastal plain/metro area and snow for lehigh valley. Don't like the look of it at all for philly and immediate burbs. in the long range, we have threats but they just all look too warm. No -NAO and the -epo looks flatter as well. Not good trends. I don't think we completely strike out but I also don't like our chances for anything more than a 3-6" type deal. Our best shot is likely going to be thump events and those do not typically work out well for the metro area. Hopefully we trend more favorable today. It is pretty amazing that we are going to have yet another winter with almost no periods of -NAO activity. It seems in the last 20 years that for every -NAO winter 4 or 5 +NAO winters follow. This winter is pretty remarkable in that it has been basically uniformly positive since dec. 1st. We get a few days but it never can lock in like the +NAO has. Hopefully we can buck the trend before March. Getting the NAO flipping to negative finally in mid march is just a kick in the pants imo One night of runs dont make a forecast. Canadian models and Ukmet are gung ho on a modest event Sun-Mon SE PA even to shore points. Models have not been able to keep up with the progressive pattern and keep pushing the boundaries S and E with these systems. Im not saying the pattern will continue but I have a hunch that guidance starts coming in less amped for Sun-Mon. Need hp to filter in like the ICON, UKIE, and CMC are trying for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 30F....perfect morning for a walk. Not too cold and no wind... Thank God for the Birds to keep my mind off the Sun/Mon self destructing (non) event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 10 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: One night of runs dont make a forecast. Canadian models and Ukmet are gung ho on a modest event Sun-Mon SE PA even to shore points. Models have not been able to keep up with the progressive pattern and keep pushing the boundaries S and E with these systems. Im not saying the pattern will continue but I have a hunch that guidance starts coming in less amped for Sun-Mon. Need hp to filter in like the ICON, UKIE, and CMC are trying for. Less amped and it produces significantly less precip or misses us south all together... it's really a lose lose set up unless you think the Cmc can hold track and strength for 5 straight days since that is really the one solution where everyone does well. Any weaker and Lehigh valley gets their precip cut significantly or even high and dry. More amplified and everyone goes to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 The overarching theme is that without a negative nao we are going to struggle to get a significant precip event without temp issues. The ensembles backing off a -nao and pushing again to the super long range will have big consequences as it means that a storm producing greater than 4 inches will be very unlikely. Not to mention the epo and pna are both trending flatter. Overall the pattern has threats but the chances of seeing greater than 6 inches with any event the next10 days has taken a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 30F....perfect morning for a walk. Not too cold and no wind... Thank God for the Birds to keep my mind off the Sun/Mon self destructing (non) event...Hopefully the LR ens are not correct, otherwise Sun-Mon could be our last shot at flakeage for a while. Maybe the Snow Gods heard several of our prayers of sacrificing snow for an Eagle's win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Less amped and it produces significantly less precip or misses us south all together... it's really a lose lose set up unless you think the Cmc can hold track and strength for 5 straight days since that is really the one solution where everyone does well. Any weaker and Lehigh valley gets their precip cut significantly or even high and dry. More amplified and everyone goes to rain. No model will hold its solution for 5 days. And yeah we are walking the razors edge but there are enough ops and ens members providing a thump before changeover so I guess we take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Less amped and it produces significantly less precip or misses us south all together... it's really a lose lose set up unless you think the Cmc can hold track and strength for 5 straight days since that is really the one solution where everyone does well. Any weaker and Lehigh valley gets their precip cut significantly or even high and dry. More amplified and everyone goes to rain. No model will hold its solution for 5 days. And yeah we are walking the razors edge but there are enough ops and ens members providing a thump before changeover so I guess we take. Yeah that is the best case but if it comes in the like NAM, even that won't be much. Still time, I just am not high on this threat at all but the LV folks should still pay attention as it has much more potential for them. Anyway, the meso models are all showing a flash freeze for early tomorrow morning. Will likely just be c-2" region wide much like the IVT but could make the commute tomorrow very intense. I am very confident in reaching climo even if the pattern completely blows. Hell I could reach with an inch tn and 2 inches before changing over Sunday. If folks are ok with continuing to nickle and dime then this pattern has potential. But as far as a significant event, it's going to take some help and luck. Let's hope the snow gods heard our sacrifice for an eagles win at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Yeah that is the best case but if it comes in the like NAM, even that won't be much. Still time, I just am not high on this threat at all but the LV folks should still pay attention as it has much more potential for them. Anyway, the meso models are all showing a flash freeze for early tomorrow morning. Will likely just be c-2" region wide much like the IVT but could make the commute tomorrow very intense. I am very confident in reaching climo even if the pattern completely blows. Hell I could reach with an inch tn and 2 inches before changing over Sunday. If folks are ok with continuing to nickle and dime then this pattern has potential. But as far as a significant event, it's going to take some help and luck. Let's hope the snow gods heard our sacrifice for an eagles win at least...Agreed. The pattern outlook back in October was against a -NAO for DJ and given the Nina you could figure F would be an NAO fail as well which we appear to be seeing. Our larger storms generally need the NAO help so forecasting no large storms back in October certainly made sense. Had a hunch nickel and diming our way to N or slightly AN snow this year would be the way we would get it done and it seems to be playing out that way. Back in Oct I may have even referred to the coming winter as a return to a "normal" climo winter around these parts......clippers and Miller B snow to rain events are the "normal" methods for achieving climo snowfall which have played out nicely so far. Guess we sit and wait to see how we wrap things up. Will only take a well-timed blocking feature to throw a wrench into things still........not seeing it tho honestly. Maybe something Feb 10-16 range but the signal I was getting good vibes for is fading, but still there for now, so holding out 'some' hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 1/5/2018 at 9:13 AM, The Iceman said: Reviewing my winter forecast and here's how December verified for me. Temps- Feel like I nailed temps this month ... KABE was -.7 F on the month, KTTN -1.7, KPHL -1.4, ILG -1.9, KACY -1.9, KRDG -2.2 Snowfall - Did fairly well in this department as well. Most areas finished above normal for Dec snowfall and area's that didn't were around normal. Overall pattern and forecast - I was wrong with N and W doing better than the rest of the area and overrunning being the source of the snow events but overall the thoughts of below normal temps and above normal snow were pretty good. Storm track was not incredibly active and there was a down period in mid month that was dry but overall I feel my December thoughts verified well. A- for December Here is what I wrote for January: I'm off to a good start though we are going to be well below normal this first week-10 days. Remains to see how much we moderate mid month. Yesterday's storm very well could have been the big one for the winter and we got scraped as opposed to raked. I don't see a torch in the LR at this time though so averaging out above normal may not happen after all with this extreme cold the first 10 days. Next week we moderate, but it remains to be seen whether we reload or if the thaw is a long term pattern shift. With the active pattern so far, it will be difficult for areas to finish below normal snow wise on the year but still possible if the upcoming pattern doesn't even give us chances of thump events. Overall, winter so far has gone according to my thoughts but I am hoping I am wrong about late month and February and this pattern shift is only short term. Now that January is officially over, I am going to review my forecast from my winter forecast through Jan. Quote January - Temps +1 to +3, the above average temps in 2nd half of the month outweigh the slightly below average temps in 1st half and maybe first 2/3rds of month. As we have seen in years past that pattern changes usually take longer than anticipated; Snowfall average. I think the storm track remains active in the first part of the month and this is our best shot of snow. The time period before the pattern change could be the big storm for the winter. Pattern changes mid-late month and along with it the storm track becomes less active and temps rise. Could see a pattern close to september/october imo. I'm giving myself a B- for January and B overall thus far. I was a bit too high on temps as most of the area finished between -.5F and -2F below normal. The exception being KABE which was actually .5F above normal. The cold in the beginning of the month was stronger than I thought it would be and the warm towards the end of the month was not as torchy as I thought so even though I thought the month would be mostly cold we did not end up positive overall. My forecasted progression of the month panned out well though as 2/3rds we were cold BN and the last 1/3rd we were AN just not enough to bring the averages AN. Snowfall was below normal for most of the area(I was just at normal, I'm sure some places in SNJ are also at normal for the month or maybe a touch above) so I was close to my forecast there too unfortunately we did not see a big storm before the pattern change though since the NAO never officially went negative. The cold shot being stronger than forecasted and not getting a -NAO really hurt us in the snow department as all of our events were mostly in the 1-3 or 2-4" range and the lack of precipitation hurt especially in the N and W regions. Also there have been no classic snow to rain events thus far and I thought there'd be at least 1 storm where the coastal plain is 35 and rain and KABE is ripping dendrites especially with the +NAO...perhaps that will be sunday. So far though, I think that I went 2 for 2 for dec/jan as generally I did well with the idea of the pattern this month just not on the specifics which is incredibly difficult for a pro even. Overall I am pretty happy with my winter forecast up to this point and am definitely taking notes on what I did this year to pick my analogs to see if they work for future years. I am expecting February to be very humbling to my forecast though as I don't see it evolving like I thought it would back in November. here is what I thought back in November what Feb would bring: Quote February - Temps +3 to +5, Strong torch to begin the month. Cold shots are transient. Snowfall Below average. Similar pattern to what we are saw the past month and a half. Mild temps with a few fronts that bring a bit of rain but overall warm and dry. Temps could be underdone honestly as I do not think we see more than a few BN temp days. I am thinking I will need some major help with Feb verifying as I don't think we see temps nearly warm enough to hit +3 to +5(and certainly not above that) but if we fail to get a -NAO this month even for a short period, below snowfall forecast may still verify especially for the coastal plain and immediate suburbs. Like I thought in December, I think we will see several battleground events where the coastal plain changes over and the LV/Poconos get a nice thump or stay frozen. We never saw a real strong torch so I think temps are already a loss and I think now we definitely see more than a few BN days but I could still see us below normal snow/slightly above normal temps so my idea here is still somewhat the same but just scaled back in intensity. Thanks for reading. 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The Iceman Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 12z 3k and 12k NAM both are showing rain tonight changing over to snow from about 10z-12z tomorrow morning. Timing for this is just about perfect despite it starting as rain. I'm a bit surprised how long the NAM keeps it snowing. I thought maybe a hour of snow tops leading to a coating but if the intensity is correct there may be some places that get a couple inches as well as flash freezing on the roads. I really think the roads may be a complete mess waking up tomorrow morning as: 1. crews cant brine the roads since the rain will wash it all away 2. it looks like the precip rate is going to be fairly heavy even though the ground is fairly warm, it may begin to accumulate quickly even on pavement 3. i don't think the public is aware of the potential for tomorrow morning. most see it as mainly rain ending briefly as a little snow. 4. finally, the timing coincides with the morning commute and there will already be more people out earlier than normal for wing bowl I'm usually skeptical of these anafront events but they do produce occasionally. The timing of this one leads me to believe it will be another minor surprise for the area and most will see some accumulation. I don't think it will be like the white rain on Monday since we won't have the sun, the temps will be below freezing and falling, and the rates should be heavier than what we saw Monday. Another penny/nickle event but as Ralph says "We Take". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 I actually think I like tonight's chances of 1-2 inches for the metro area better than Sunday right now. 12z was not kind to the city and burbs for the weekend threat. Even the LV and poconos change over on the GFS. Thump snow is pretty much non existent in the metro area. Looks like 1 hour of light snow quickly over to rain though temps are still close. Still no high to the north, a low in the lakes, and a stale airmass with SW flow, sunday just does not have much going for it other than a thump if you live N and W. For the coast, it's trending more towards almost all rain now. Then in the long range we get 3 more rain storms that start as maybe a hour of snow to heavy rain. At the very least, it won't be an dull storm pattern but with no -NAO and with just seasonal airmass in place, we are going to have issues staying snow with every threat that brings significant precip. The only way I see us scoring in this upcoming pattern is a front end thump, an anafront like tonight, or a clipper. Tonight though, almost all of the meso models are showing some accumulation after changing over in the early morning. c-2" is a good call region wide but I wouldn't be surprised if we flip earlier than projected as modeling is running a bit cooler than progged today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 First daffodils of 2018 sighted emerging from the ground in my yard today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Need a 25 mile shift SE on ECM for us north and west SEPA peeps Sunday, looks painful and reminds of the system earlier in the season i joked about a road trip for. If i remember correct that storm ended up even further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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