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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread


Rtd208

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12z euro smacks the area with an inverted trough on mon-tues. too bad these are difficult to forecast 48 hours out let alone 96 hours+. We'll see where we are on Sunday but the chance is there. we sometimes get crushed by IVT's ala that eagles lions game a few years ago where much of SE PA received 4-8 inches. 

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12z euro smacks the area with an inverted trough on mon-tues. too bad these are difficult to forecast 48 hours out let alone 96 hours+. We'll see where we are on Sunday but the chance is there. we sometimes get crushed by IVT's ala that eagles lions game a few years ago where much of SE PA received 4-8 inches. 
Not sure I would say the Euro "smacks" the area, though 2-4" this winter certainly is a modest event.00d81c55286c6df6408c46925437667b.jpg
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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not sure I would say the Euro "smacks" the area, though 2-4" this winter certainly is a modest event.

Depends on where you live, in my opinion 3-5'' inches is a modest event, but it could be 6-12'' if i lived in the mountains. Based on what i'm seeing with the models they've been flipping back and forth a few times so it's hard to get a spot-on idea but the most i think seems realistic is a half foot or less for here in early February, then the chance could rise by mid-Feb for a decent but not blockbuster class snowstorm with 8-12'' in the realistic range at this point. I would be surprised if the Mid-atlantic region gets a full on raging blizzard with feet of snow not inches due to the trough being really far east and expecting nothing more than a few clippers tbh. The Nina climo doesn't really support big 2010-like snowstorms, but you can't rule anything out.

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Big difference in high temps today across the region with NW Chesco at 33.4 while down in Sea Isle City NJ they hit 44.3. So far this month we are running at 1.3 degrees below normal regarding temps...it will be close but we may just finish with our 3rd straight below normal month. Snowfall wise through today we are at 17.3" for the season which is only 0.6" above normal....we need another 1.5" during the last week here in January to finish at normal (18.8") of normal seasonal snow to date here in Chester County. The good news for those of you that like snow....February on average is our snowiest month of the year averaging out at 13.3" of snow (1983 to Present) here in Chester County....we shall see

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11 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Big difference in high temps today across the region with NW Chesco at 33.4 while down in Sea Isle City NJ they hit 44.3. So far this month we are running at 1.3 degrees below normal regarding temps...it will be close but we may just finish with our 3rd straight below normal month. Snowfall wise through today we are at 17.3" for the season which is only 0.6" above normal....we need another 1.5" during the last week here in January to finish at normal (18.8") of normal seasonal snow to date here in Chester County. The good news for those of you that like snow....February on average is our snowiest month of the year averaging out at 13.3" of snow (1983 to Present) here in Chester County....we shall see

That average there has some monsters in it too Feb 11th 1983 and Feb 23rd 2010 at least down here in Media Delaware County. 

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While next week looks 'interesting' on the ops, Im not thrilled. Getting an IVT to produce is a 20% shot at this range and getting a heavy rain changing to wet accumulating marshmallow snow late in the week is even a bigger challenge. These are our transition events with the true threat period being between Feb 10-16 give or take a day on either side. Teleconnections spike mid month with other key indices such as QBO and MJO looking favorable.

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27 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I'd take 5 straight winters of cutters and near misses for a birds win :lol: a birds win with a top 10 snowstorm and I would probably think I was dreaming...

We know this isn't going to happen but a 6"-8"+ storm and Birds win within a week would be super fine by me...

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Here in NW Chester County we are now only 0.6 degrees below normal for January Temps through yesterday with likely a last AN day today. Should finish up just below normal. Also of interest we are now at 17.3" for snow season to date which is  0.7" below normal snowfall for January to date (18.0"). We will need another 1.5" with the Tuesday event to finish up at average through January of 18.8" 

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12z gfs continues the nice little inverted trough setup end of the month but completely loses the Friday deal. I was worried about this threat. These frontal boundary snows seem to always dry out closer to the event. Granted it's only one model one run. See if it's back by 18z.

Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk

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