hazwoper Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 Looks like the mid 50s for highs Sunday were overdone on long range models. Very typical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 3 hours ago, Voyager said: Over my almost 50 years on this planet, I can say that there have been many snow storms and events here in PA during the time around my birthday, which is February 8th. There does seems to be times of the year where certain events happen more frequently. Hell, the USGA had to move the dates of the Phoenix Open golf tournament out in Arizona because of so many frost, rain, and even on occasion, snow delays. It seemed that the week of the tournament most years had some of the crappiest weather that Phoenix/Scottsdale experiences during the winter months. That or President's Day. You can go by how many "PD" storms get cited around here. My low this morning was 15F and currently @ 24. The dp has been right arctic in the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: That or President's Day. You can go by how many "PD" storms get cited around here. My low this morning was 15F and currently @ 24. The dp has been right arctic in the single digits. Low of 11F here, and up to 28F already! I love the cold and snow, but I've come to terms with the impending moderate period :-). Might even have a kettle fire outside this weekend. Last year we did it on a Friday night with 20F at 8 pm, but there was no wind. Temps in the teens with a breeze is a little too much for sitting in a chair outside at night, even with a fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Low of 11F here, and up to 28F already! I love the cold and snow, but I've come to terms with the impending moderate period :-). Might even have a kettle fire outside this weekend. Last year we did it on a Friday night with 20F at 8 pm, but there was no wind. Temps in the teens with a breeze is a little too much for sitting in a chair outside at night, even with a fire. I was thinking of doing some grilling this weekend. At least before the unsettled period starts up next week with rain chances! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 1 hour ago, hazwoper said: Looks like the mid 50s for highs Sunday were overdone on long range models. Very typical Yep, pretty much the opposite of what typically happens in most nina years. Almost always the warmth/SE ridge is underdone and long lasting while the cold shots are overdone and transient. But this winter the cold has been verifying pretty well in the long range while the warmth always seems to fade to a slightly above normal 24 or 48 hours. Even when we hit 60 last week, I believe we still came out of the week below normal for this time of the year or at least normal despite massive AN departures that day. It just seems that this year, the cold and troughiness in the east seems to be the dominant pattern while the warmth always seems to be transient in nature and only serving to set up another long lasting cold period. Now the next 2 weeks may be above normal but I see it being much like mid to late December. Not a torch at all but overall no real threats as we get on the warm side of the storm track due to the lack of western ridging and a +NAO. But with cold air being reinforced and reloaded in canada and coming down behind those storms, it seems to me that the pattern will still be cold. Not below normal because when we go AN ahead of a storm, we will go well AN. But I think there is a very good chance we have more BN days, even if they are slightly BN or average, than AN days. Those AN days and departures will outweigh the BN departures. So while this period may finish +2 to +4, 9 or 10 of the 15 days may be normal or below normal. I don't think these next 2 weeks are completely dead and torch. We could easily just get lucky with timing, or a decent thump/ice storm with the right track and amount of cold air available in Canada even if it isn't centered over us. We may get shut out but with how the winter is going I could easily see another 1-3" storm or 2 in this period. Obviously as with any period that is transient, N and W has a better chance of squeezing something out in a borderline situation than the philly metro area and immediate burbs. No big dogs but a fluke like yesterday I would say there's a fair chance as all winter thus far, we have managed to get snow even in not so great set ups or patterns. I mean look at christmas eve and christmas... we got a trace on both days but easily could have gotten a 1-3" fluke out of it. I'm looking forward to the pattern completely reloading in February and my warm call in my winter forecast for february looks toast right now but I don't think we can count out the next 2 weeks as being a total dud. Unfavorable, yes but with there being cold air around, no real signal indicating a torch last more than 2 days, the opportunity to score on the heels of a front or something of that effect will be there. In other words, I wouldn't write off snow but any snow we do get will be a nickle and dime and not from a large scale synoptic event. Any system that amplifies is going to cut well west of us but if that happens it may set up a -NAO or 50/50 low down the line so it is a dual edge sword. Still an interesting period ahead despite the relaxation of the current pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 So far through the 18th of January we are running at a whopping 6.4 degrees below normal. Even with the moderating trend we are likely to finish with our 3rd straight below normal month (based on 1983 to Present data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Yeah we are at the point now where it would take a massive torch the rest of the month to hit above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 20, 2018 Author Share Posted January 20, 2018 Current temp is 53 here, also winds pretty gusty as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 On 1/19/2018 at 1:59 PM, The Iceman said: Yeah we are at the point now where it would take a massive torch the rest of the month to hit above normal. Not exactly though, was a thread about this on NYC side a couple days ago projecting just a -.6F for the month and that's if MOS doesn't end up above guidance like usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Current temperature is 56 degrees. The leftover dirty snow piles have melted nearly all the way, and i was sweating a little from outside exercising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Had a high of 53F today. Except for some plowed mounds and patches in colder spots out of the sun, most of the snow is gone now. Currently 49F & partly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Topped out at 51F today. Hope Kamu has the tarp on the snow pile! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 15 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Topped out at 51F today. Hope Kamu has the tarp on the snow pile! Lol, wasn't going to due to the relatively long period of days above freezing ahead. But now you've got me thinking about it, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 3 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Had a high of 53F today. Except for some plowed mounds and patches in colder spots out of the sun, most of the snow is gone now. Currently 49F & partly cloudy. Made it to 56F here. Kettle fire tonight! The snow here is just about all melted off too. But for 1.5" of snow it hung in there really well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSeNJ Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Already up to 55. This is all that's left from January 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Up to 47.8 in East Nantmeal....down the shore in Sea Isle City it made it all the way up to 53.8 at 1152am now in the last 20 minutes it has fallen off to 45.2 an 8.6 degree drop due to the sea breeze kicking in - water temp 33 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 21 hours ago, RedSky said: Not exactly though, was a thread about this on NYC side a couple days ago projecting just a -.6F for the month and that's if MOS doesn't end up above guidance like usual. considering from 1/16 on to the end og the month there will likely be only 1 or 2 slightly bn days, that is impressive imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Weeklies give us a cold wintry February into March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Had a decent T-storm around 4am...been having some good downpours since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 After a pause, am getting some heavier rain now. Up to 0.37" at post time. Temp is 56F. Still a few patches of shoveled/plowed snow that had become glaciers the last rain/freeze go-around in parking lots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Ground is still frozen up here. All this rain is just running away. Creeks are on the rise because of the runoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Squall line is just 3 miles NW of me here in NW Chester County - temp is up to 57.3 with 0.26" of rain so far today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 New weekies look cold and wet from Feb onward. Doesn't look like this will be a window of opportunity but an actual period of several snow chances lasting into early march. It doesn't look as cold as end of dec/early jan but that could be a good thing and prevent us from lacking precip even if it means we see a few mix or changeover events. Ensembles are almost unanimous now in the AO absolutely tanking, the NAO going negative, EPO going negative, and PNA going positive all in the beginning of February. Enjoy this week of fairly mild temps because by the end of next week winter will be back and here to stay for the foreseeable future imo very very good look shaping up for February and the forecasts of winter never coming back after the first half freeze look to be toast. IMO this upcoming period has the same potential as feb 2010 even though it is highly unlikely we manage something like that. I say that only to emphasize the potential that this upcoming pattern has to produce. Details and specific threats will emerge in the next week but as far as long range indicators for patterns go, this one is setting off all kinds of alarm bells for a snowy and active feb into possibly march. This does not look to be transient where we have a week and 2 threats and if we miss we're screwed but more of a period of active threats where if we miss one, there is another on it's heals. As of now, I would be very surprised if Feb(our snowiest month climo wise) does not end up at least average in feb with a good chance of being above average snow wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Nice (albeit narrow) squall line coming through. Went from mostly cloudy to very dark and heavy rain for about 5 minutes. Added about 0.1" to the morning totals and am up to 0.54" so far for the event. Currently 58F and light - moderate rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Total precip .58 and 61F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 23, 2018 Author Share Posted January 23, 2018 Picked up 0.24" of rain, current temp 62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Ok, it rained and washed all residual snow away. NOW DRY UP SO I CAN GO GOLFING ON SATURDAY. Currently 52 degrees. Temps will begin to crash behind this front soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Cold front starting to come through. Winds have picked up and temp is starting to creep down. Made it to 60F with 0.56" rain (so far). Currently 58, overcast, and breezy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 30 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Cold front starting to come through. Winds have picked up and temp is starting to creep down. Made it to 60F with 0.56" rain (so far). Currently 58, overcast, and breezy. Yep, gusty now...down to 57F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 40F at midnight, 58F for the high, now down to 51F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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