JTA66 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 49F at midnight, up to 61F now. Snow pack gone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 59.7 here in East Nantmeal good shot of setting new record high for the date...set just last year of 61.8 Rain so far today 0.48" - record daily rain for the day was 1.82" set back in 1915 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 **A WIGGUM RULE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JANUARY 12, 2018** In previous years I have mentioned an independent study that I have conducted irt to the correlation between 60F+ high temps during the heart of the winter season and snowfall within the 5 days following. I define "heart of winter" (for basis of this study) to be January 5 - February 7 though there is some flex on either side of that range. I have noted that there is a >90% success rate that we get snow within the 5-day period following a high temp of at least 60F using KDYL as a base station. I define snow as actual snow that is falling to the ground *whether or not there is accumulation*. Both GFS and NAM mos data have KDYL hitting 60F on January 12. *IF* this high temp verifies, there is a >90% chance that we see snow between January 13 and January 18. Few things to note. 1) the high temp of 60F isnt perfect. I've seen this rule verify when hitting 55F or higher but 60F or higher exponentially increases the chances. 2) this is not failsafe obviously and just because we hit 60F doesnt mean we see flakes...my recorded data shows roughly 93% success since I have been researching. The theory behind this rule is amplification and flow physics. Again, in a perfect world it would be 100% success but atmospheric science is chaotic so-to-speak. Some refer to it as a rubber-band effect or a snap-back effect in the atmosphere. I always found it interesting that we could go from being so mild to seeing snow, then put 2 and 2 together and began doing logs and conducting research. So with this said, a Wiggum Rule Watch has been issued. Need a better name for this. We just hit 61F here in Warminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 Temp up to 62 here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Ice is occurring on neshaminy creek; moving pretty fast. High tide is at 11 pm so hopefully it doesn't jam up to bad. My neighbors dock may not survive the night. Fascinating sounds from the creek; very relaxing. I have video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Vultures drying out their wings early this afternoon, just chillin'.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 hour ago, KamuSnow said: Vultures drying out their wings early this afternoon, just chillin'.... Chillin' AND pooping I expect! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Chillin' AND pooping I expect! LOL Yup, at least that part of the tree is over grass, and not the driveway. Last year they left a few large feathers during the course of the summer - they look like they'd make good quill pens (yeah, we collected them, lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Winds have really picked up in the last hour. (gusty)Temps went from 58F not too long ago to my current temp of 48F. Harrisburg is at 35F...cold air moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 8 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Winds have really picked up in the last hour. (gusty)Temps went from 58F not too long ago to my current temp of 48F. Harrisburg is at 35F...cold air moving in. Just posted in the event thread. Same here - 59F for a few hours, winds around 4:30 am, and temp is NOW down to 45F and still dropping (it was 46 when I posted in the other thread a couple minutes ago)!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Just posted in the event thread. Same here - 59F for a few hours, winds around 4:30 am, and temp is NOW down to 45F and still dropping (it was 46 when I posted in the other thread a couple minutes ago)!! Yep, dropping quick...I'm down to 43F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Just now, Birds~69 said: Yep, dropping quick...I'm down to 43F. I'm down to 44F and still dropping. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I'm down to 44F and still dropping. lol Glenn said we'll see a 10+ degree plunge in an hour and he was right. More like a 15+ degree plunge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Currently at 33F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Very gusty. Ground very saturated. Concerned for downed trees being a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 The winds are howling way more than I thought.....35F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Very gusty. Ground very saturated. Concerned for downed trees being a possibility. The ground is complete mush... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Geez temps are dropping here fast. Already down to 25 with winds howling. Some snow looks to be coming in on radar as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 13, 2018 Author Share Posted January 13, 2018 Current temp down to 29 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 What a turn around day; temp at 31. Wind makes it feel a lot colder! Ground is mushy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Took the tarp off the snow pile today - it's a shadow of it's former self but solid nonetheless! 25F, breezy, and chilly here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 The ground is complete mush...So are the Atlanta Falcons :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So are the Atlanta Falcons :-D That last drive killed me. Thought for sure Atl would punch it in...my brain almost exploded at the bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Current temp is 16 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 An ice jam is currently occurring near the falls in trenton/Morrisville. I noticed it right as they issued the warning this morning. I have a few pics I will upload later. I don't see this resolving itself until Wednesday earliest. Flood levels may be higher than projected as well. I'm going to go back later this afternoon to see how much the water has risen. Very cool sight, anyone interested in seeing a weather event that doesnt occurs around here often to take a drive to the levy near the trenton makes bridge in Morrisville. PM me if you want directions to some good spots to view it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Looks like winter takes a bit of a break to close out January. 2nd week of February we should be rolling again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 hour ago, Newman said: Looks like winter takes a bit of a break to close out January. 2nd week of February we should be rolling again. Yup, hopefully we can cash in on something decent. till then I have a ton of firewood to split gone through 2 cords already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 18, 2018 Author Share Posted January 18, 2018 Current temp is 16 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 18 hours ago, Newman said: Looks like winter takes a bit of a break to close out January. 2nd week of February we should be rolling again. Yeah correct me if I am wrong but it's typical in this area to see a brief warm up for a week or two going to Feb, then we get a decent storm around the 10th of Feb, then pretty much pack it in till next year. Sure there are the occasional late Feb/March storms, but most of them are small impact and melt within days. The planets need to be lined up for a good monster storm (i.e. 1993) in that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 11 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Yeah correct me if I am wrong but it's typical in this area to see a brief warm up for a week or two going to Feb, then we get a decent storm around the 10th of Feb, then pretty much pack it in till next year. Sure there are the occasional late Feb/March storms, but most of them are small impact and melt within days. The planets need to be lined up for a good monster storm (i.e. 1993) in that time. Over my almost 50 years on this planet, I can say that there have been many snow storms and events here in PA during the time around my birthday, which is February 8th. There does seems to be times of the year where certain events happen more frequently. Hell, the USGA had to move the dates of the Phoenix Open golf tournament out in Arizona because of so many frost, rain, and even on occasion, snow delays. It seemed that the week of the tournament most years had some of the crappiest weather that Phoenix/Scottsdale experiences during the winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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