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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread

Rtd208

By Rtd208,
in Philadelphia Region

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Birds~69

Birds~69

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

44F...that's probably the max for today.

Seeing grass which isn't good. Probably no snow around after Sat then back to cold...

Don't let that fool you. Went out the front door to get the mail...took a spill. (Sun doesn't hit this area) Total skating rink...would have made a good/funny YouTube video. 

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Don't let that fool you. Went out the front door to get the mail...took a spill. (Sun doesn't hit this area) Total skating rink...would have made a good/funny YouTube video. 

Yikes!  Hope you don't still feel that days from now. :yikes:  At least my front faces SW so stuff on the sidewalk melts and dries faster there.  Still put some salt out to help the drying before it freezes up again tonight.

I maxed out at 43F.  Currently 40F.

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zenmsav6810

zenmsav6810

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Update: we did indeed remain below freezing today in Chester County PA with a high of 26.4...therefore have now moved into a tie for the 2nd longest sub-32 streak in the 125 year Chester County Pa database at 14 consecutive days. The only longer streak January 19, 1961 through February 3, 1961 at 16 days. I am somewhat surprised and impressed by this cold spell as many have opined that such a below normal stretch would be unlikely with the current state of climate change. Whether you are a believer or a denier like me....this has been an impressive cold stretch!

 

22 hours ago, hazwoper said:

Nah, the globe certainly isn't warming......  I am sorry, but your understanding of the topic is clearly flawed (which is sad), especially when you constantly bring up local temp records to opine on climate related issues.  Do us all a favor in this regional forum, and post this crap in the climate change forum so we can watch those in the know laugh.

image.png.cb02606fbbcad0a5ea9dc6c6e6e5f2ae.png

 

19 hours ago, snowwors2 said:

Ridiculously harsh and unnecessary post which is one reason I (and many others) have moved on to another forum!!!

I prefer the term "atmospheric composition change syndrome." Regardless of the weather, adding more Co2 to the atmosphere must be screwing something up! Whether its global average temperature, calcification of the ocean, sea level rise, fish populations in rivers... all of life on Earth is dependent on a delicate equilibrium of everything else. There is no less than a divine commandment to not mess it up for the rest of us. 

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hazwoper

hazwoper

Posted
Posted
On 1/9/2018 at 9:12 AM, ChescoPaWxman said:

Wow...now that is a very calm and amiable response...why the need to attack? I did not mention climate change to provoke anger out of you. It was simply mentioned irrespective of your position on the topic as an impressive streak. This is so sad as this is what many in society do today...whether it's politics or scientific discussions. I tell my kids disagreements and discussions are a sign of intelligence. Too often many choose today to simply shut down those with opposing opinions or get angry and cast disparaging remarks on insults one's intelligence as was done in the above post. I of course have no anger and will choose not to insult your intelligence as you did to me in the above. For the record I of course believe that climate is always changing (fact - it always has and will)...now whether man is responsible for these changes or if it is cyclical is clearly not settled science - as you know many scientists including METS do NOT agree it is because of man...and just because it has trended warmer does not mean it will not trend back long after you and I are gone. 

I apologize if my post came across as an attack.  I just find it rather disheartening that you seem to not grasp the idea of how climate change/global warming is quantified.  You continuously use your local temps to throw shade when you should be educated enough to understand that simple local temperatures has absolutely nothing to do with climate change (there will be cold places and times on a warming planet, please tell me you grasp this simple reality?).  You also constantly use your home station numbers compared to another completely different station somewhere in Chester County to show how it is soooo cold compared to the past.  Again, this flawed approach is something I would like to think you could understand is absurd.  You cannot use data from different observing stations to show any trend, so you should probably refrain from it.

I have never seen you post these musings in the climate section, which is why I suggested doing so with the hopes that you might learn something.

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Plokoon111 said:

Is ice damming a concern Friday?

There is a flood watch posted up in the northern part of the CWA so expect that it would be.  The creeks and smaller rivers like the Schuylkill were frozen over pretty good, as was the upper parts of the Delaware River in the CWA and I wouldn't be surprised if the watches get extended further south - https://patch.com/pennsylvania/yardley/its-so-cold-delaware-river-has-frozen-over-photos

 

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, hazwoper said:

I apologize if my post came across as an attack.  I just find it rather disheartening that you seem to not grasp the idea of how climate change/global warming is quantified.  You continuously use your local temps to throw shade when you should be educated enough to understand that simple local temperatures has absolutely nothing to do with climate change (there will be cold places and times on a warming planet, please tell me you grasp this simple reality?).  You also constantly use your home station numbers compared to another completely different station somewhere in Chester County to show how it is soooo cold compared to the past.  Again, this flawed approach is something I would like to think you could understand is absurd.  You cannot use data from different observing stations to show any trend, so you should probably refrain from it.

I have never seen you post these musings in the climate section, which is why I suggested doing so with the hopes that you might learn something.

Hi Haz...totally understand - climate is of course always changing that is indeed an indisputable fact. Is it currently overall warming a bit? yes.. Are all scientists 100% sure it shall continue? no. We have had warming and then cooling periods before. I suspect we will see cooling in the future no reason to think otherwise.  Are we 100% sure man is the cause of the current warming/changes? no. Do 100% of all scientists/climatologists can agree that man is the cause of the slight warming? no.  Is man induced climate change a fact - meaning 100% of scientists agree? no. As a contrast - do all scientist believe the world is round? yes that is indisputable fact.

With that said I totally respect and value your input and opinion...which is all it is today - now if it someday man induced climate change becomes scientific fact then fine. However, we are clearly not yet there today and kind of suspect you and I will not be around before there is any truly conclusive evidence is supplied.

 

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hazwoper

hazwoper

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Hi Haz...totally understand - climate is of course always changing that is indeed an indisputable fact. Is it currently overall warming a bit? yes.. Are all scientists 100% sure it shall continue? no. We have had warming and then cooling periods before. I suspect we will see cooling in the future no reason to think otherwise.  Are we 100% sure man is the cause of the current warming/changes? no. Do 100% of all scientists/climatologists can agree that man is the cause of the slight warming? no.  Is man induced climate change a fact - meaning 100% of scientists agree? no. As a contrast - do all scientist believe the world is round? yes that is indisputable fact.

With that said I totally respect and value your input and opinion...which is all it is today - now if it someday man induced climate change becomes scientific fact then fine. However, we are clearly not yet there today and kind of suspect you and I will not be around before there is any truly conclusive evidence is supplied.

 

I respect and value your posts, believe me.  I just like it when you report and leave it at that, that is all.  Your reports are certainly well received from everyone on this board and the other board and I always look forward to seeing your WXSIM forecasts.

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

I respect and value your posts, believe me.  I just like it when you report and leave it at that, that is all.  Your reports are certainly well received from everyone on this board and the other board and I always look forward to seeing your WXSIM forecasts.

Thanks Haz!! I am always learning from you and others on these sites!

Paul

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zenmsav6810

zenmsav6810

Posted
Posted

Speaking of atmospheric change... I read new peer-reviewed research that efforts to ban CFC aerosols have demonstrably led to a closing of the hole in the ozone layer, I think that's something that we can all get behind: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2017/11/03/the-earths-ozone-hole-is-shrinking-and-is-the-smallest-its-been-since-1988/?utm_term=.486584510267

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Lady Di

Lady Di

Posted
Posted

Southern Poconos might be in trouble.   I hope down here we stay too warm-I don't do ice!

Based on the latest forecast some record highs will be challenged
Friday and this warmth will linger for a time Friday night. Now for
the more challenging part of the forecast, ice potential. The model
guidance overall shows colder low-level air advecting southeastward
later Friday night as a strengthening baroclinic zone is on the
move. Some guidance is much more robust with this than others,
however the initial push of colder air is forecast to be shallow
with warmer air aloft taking longer to cool. This sets the stage for
freezing rain and/or sleet for portions of eastern PA and
northwestern NJ. Of particular concern is the southern Poconos into
far northwestern NJ where cold low-level air could result in a
decent amount of icing. Portions of the southern Poconos could see
ice accumulations of up to one-quarter of an inch. This however
could be more sleet if the low-level cold layer ends up being a
little deeper. As of now, we are coming up with more freezing rain
but did include a mention of sleet. This changeover occurs after
midnight Friday night and especially closer to daybreak Saturday.
Temperatures should be the warmest in the very early morning hours
(or just after midnight in some cases) then temperatures fall as the
low-level cold air advection surges southeastward. The southern and
eastern extent of this will depend on the speed of the surface low.
The overall precipitation should be ending in the morning with the
bulk of the comma-head precipitation shifting to our northwest and
north. It will be much colder Saturday night, with wind chills
down to around -10F in portions of the southern Poconos.

 

 

 

 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted

**A WIGGUM RULE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JANUARY 12, 2018** :o:o

In previous years I have mentioned an independent study that I have conducted irt to the correlation between 60F+ high temps during the heart of the winter season and snowfall within the 5 days following. I define "heart of winter" (for basis of this study) to be January 5 - February 7 though there is some flex on either side of that range. I have noted that there is a >90% success rate that we get snow within the 5-day period following a high temp of at least 60F using KDYL as a base station. I define snow as actual snow that is falling to the ground *whether or not there is accumulation*. 

Both GFS and NAM mos data have KDYL hitting 60F on January 12. *IF* this high temp verifies, there is a >90% chance that we see snow between January 13 and January 18. Few things to note. 1) the high temp of 60F isnt perfect. I've seen this rule verify when hitting 55F or higher but 60F or higher exponentially increases the chances. 2) this is not failsafe obviously and just because we hit 60F doesnt mean we see flakes...my recorded data shows roughly 93% success since I have been researching. 

The theory behind this rule is amplification and flow physics. Again, in a perfect world it would be 100% success but atmospheric science is chaotic so-to-speak. Some refer to it as a rubber-band effect or a snap-back effect in the atmosphere. I always found it interesting that we could go from being so mild to seeing snow, then put 2 and 2 together and began doing logs and conducting research.

So with this said, a Wiggum Rule Watch has been issued. Need a better name for this. :unsure:

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The Iceman

The Iceman

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

**A WIGGUM RULE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JANUARY 12, 2018** :o:o

In previous years I have mentioned an independent study that I have conducted irt to the correlation between 60F+ high temps during the heart of the winter season and snowfall within the 5 days following. I define "heart of winter" (for basis of this study) to be January 5 - February 7 though there is some flex on either side of that range. I have noted that there is a >90% success rate that we get snow within the 5-day period following a high temp of at least 60F using KDYL as a base station. I define snow as actual snow that is falling to the ground *whether or not there is accumulation*. 

Both GFS and NAM mos data have KDYL hitting 60F on January 12. *IF* this high temp verifies, there is a >90% chance that we see snow between January 13 and January 18. Few things to note. 1) the high temp of 60F isnt perfect. I've seen this rule verify when hitting 55F or higher but 60F or higher exponentially increases the chances. 2) this is not failsafe obviously and just because we hit 60F doesnt mean we see flakes...my recorded data shows roughly 93% success since I have been researching. 

The theory behind this rule is amplification and flow physics. Again, in a perfect world it would be 100% success but atmospheric science is chaotic so-to-speak. Some refer to it as a rubber-band effect or a snap-back effect in the atmosphere. I always found it interesting that we could go from being so mild to seeing snow, then put 2 and 2 together and began doing logs and conducting research.

So with this said, a Wiggum Rule Watch has been issued. Need a better name for this. :unsure:

The wiggum rule is a very real thing. I was skeptical upon first hearing oh say 10 years ago but time after time it tends to verify. I'm a firm believer now. I mean even look at Saturday now, we may end as sleet even to the coast. Definitely spells good luck for next weeks threat though. Interesting that long term warmth is pretty much off the table now and the regime flips back to slightly below normal perhaps through the end of the month. Even normal temps for january will mean we have a chance at snow most of the time. My jan prediction of finishing slightly above normal for the month despite intense cold in the beginning of the month looks to be in serious jeopardy. Also the long term pattern change to warm for 2nd half of the winter looks to be in question as well. This hobby is continually humbling.

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Newman

Newman

Posted
Posted

Winter Weather Advisory Posted for Berks and the Lehigh Valley for Saturday Morning: 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected and maybe a little sleet. The ice
  will result in difficult travel conditions. Total ice
  accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest New Jersey and east central
  Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...temperatures will fall sharply near 50 at
  midnight to around 30 at 7 am Saturday with icing developing
  rapidly toward daybreak Saturday on gusty north to northwest
  winds.
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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Newman said:

Winter Weather Advisory Posted for Berks and the Lehigh Valley for Saturday Morning: 


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected and maybe a little sleet. The ice
  will result in difficult travel conditions. Total ice
  accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest New Jersey and east central
  Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...temperatures will fall sharply near 50 at
  midnight to around 30 at 7 am Saturday with icing developing
  rapidly toward daybreak Saturday on gusty north to northwest
  winds.

I would extend this to NW Chester County if I was the NWS....especially above 500 feet ..if Reading falls below freezing with cold air advection than so will NW Chesco...but as always I leave it to the professionals for these tough calls. We are fortunate to have what I believe is the best forecast office in the US

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