ChescoWx Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Low today was 7.7 in East Nantmeal and 12.8 in Sea Isle City NJ. It is likely we will set an all-time Chester County low maximum for today's date. Our records in the county go back to 1894. The previous record for today was 17 in 1896 - tomorrow's record is also in jeopardy of 17 in 1996 #pawx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Last post this morning(maybe) but with the lack of blocking forecasted at this time, I think the event late next week has a pretty strong chance of being a cutter. This could be a big deal especially if it cuts up the apps. 1-2 inches of rain on top of frozen ground and most of the local waterways frozen over would provide a big flood threat via ice jams. Definitely something to watch especially if monday trends colder like has been occurring. If Monday is a majority frozen event then we likely only barely get above freezing(still in the 30's) until that event. If Monday trends warmer though, the threat would be lower as we would see a more gradual melt as opposed to an all at once melt. Regardless if it is rain, snow, ice, cold, or warm over the next 10 days, there should be several interesting weather events through mid month.EPS say no cutter so we'll see. Hasnt been the best model lately tho. Im still skeptical of this warmup. Definitely a relax coming but N temps in January are still cold and can still produce. Biggest things I am noting are the tendency and trend on the ens means towards a negative ao.....some a strong negative ao. I know there is a signal way out there for a trof to develop out West BUT i noticed recent trends are trying to keep this trof farther West thus pumping the PNA and EPO ridges. Again, just coffee talk that far out but this would generally fit a repeat of the pattern we have been in. Brief "thaw" towards the end of the pattern relax (which lasts 7-10 days). Would match what we saw happen in mid December. Remember when doom and gloom struck and everyone thought the ensembles showing the robust and stationary SE Ridge and trof stuck in the SW US were a lock? Didnt really work out like that.....very transient. This is why I am skeptical of the big prolonged warmup some ens were showing and now seemingly sloooowly backing down from. Moderation? Absolutely. A thaw? Probably but relatively brief and climatologically normally during the period being shown. A reload and back in the freezer with active storm track at some point before months end? Most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: EPS say no cutter so we'll see. Hasnt been the best model lately tho. Im still skeptical of this warmup. Definitely a relax coming but N temps in January are still cold and can still produce. Biggest things I am noting are the tendency and trend on the ens means towards a negative ao.....some a strong negative ao. I know there is a signal way out there for a trof to develop out West BUT i noticed recent trends are trying to keep this trof farther West thus pumping the PNA and EPO ridges. Again, just coffee talk that far out but this would generally fit a repeat of the pattern we have been in. Brief "thaw" towards the end of the pattern relax (which lasts 7-10 days). Would match what we saw happen in mid December. Remember when doom and gloom struck and everyone thought the ensembles showing the robust and stationary SE Ridge and trof stuck in the SW US were a lock? Didnt really work out like that.....very transient. This is why I am skeptical of the big prolonged warmup some ens were showing and now seemingly sloooowly backing down from. Moderation? Absolutely. A thaw? Probably but relatively brief and climatologically normally during the period being shown. A reload and back in the freezer with active storm track at some point before months end? Most likely. Good post. I agree that there are several similarities between the mid december relaxation and this one. I also like how close the cold air is from returning even during the relaxation. It's not like the entire side of the globe is warm. Plenty of arctic air to tap into that doesn't look to be going away even if we are above normal for a time. I didn't even see the EPS but very interesting that it isn't showing a cutter. What are your thoughts on Monday? I'm liking the timing right now. Precip should mainly fall overnight I think which should enhance the chances for ice/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Good post. I agree that there are several similarities between the mid december relaxation and this one. I also like how close the cold air is from returning even during the relaxation. It's not like the entire side of the globe is warm. Plenty of arctic air to tap into that doesn't look to be going away even if we are above normal for a time. I didn't even see the EPS but very interesting that it isn't showing a cutter. What are your thoughts on Monday? I'm liking the timing right now. Precip should mainly fall overnight I think which should enhance the chances for ice/snow.Monday PM looks very light....just a fropa essentially. However, plenty cold at surface for sloppy conditions. Thinking a snow, sleet, fzra mix. Wont take alot to make driving a mess. As we get closer I guess we'll see if either rush hour gets impacted (Mon PM/Tues AM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Next weekend looks interesting. Guidance continues to lose the cutter look which actually fits Nina climatology given the fast progressive ns flow. GFS allows ns energy to swing thru and develops a miller style storm to the South with hp to the N. Ends up tracking west of here but clear trend towards a better solution. CMC is somewhat similar....zips the ns front thru ahead of stj energy then develops a weak double-barrel coastal with hp to the ne funnelling in cold air. Actually has a sizeable event extreme SE PA and S NJ. Trending towards eps are both models.If anything, the cutter and "warmup" look continues to get muted and pushed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Next weekend looks interesting. Guidance continues to lose the cutter look which actually fits Nina climatology given the fast progressive ns flow. GFS allows ns energy to swing thru and develops a miller style storm to the South with hp to the N. Ends up tracking west of here but clear trend towards a better solution. CMC is somewhat similar....zips the ns front thru ahead of stj energy then develops a weak double-barrel coastal with hp to the ne funnelling in cold air. Actually has a sizeable event extreme SE PA and S NJ. Trending towards eps are both models. If anything, the cutter and "warmup" look continues to get muted and pushed back. I was going to say today's OP run in the long range don't look all that warm. Maybe slightly AN. Still looks to dip below freezing each night. Definitely not a big thaw look. If anything next week may be the relaxation and even then we may score with frozen events. The 11-15 day period on the ensembles looks promising again and looks to reload the pattern imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 The 11-15 day period on the ensembles looks promising again and looks to reload the pattern imoI posted a rather extensive disco in the mid atl regarding this. In my outlook I mentioned "progressive" and "transient" would be buzzwords this winter and I believe any relaxation in the pattern is transient during the reload as we saw mid Dec. Im not sure we get the extreme BN temp anomalies but I strongly believe we head back to BN temp regime later in the month into February. AO is going negative and the atlantic is finally looking better. The epo ridging will return as well after the reload. We get both sides working together and we could go into the 2nd half of winter with a cold and very active storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 GFS and GEFS starting to signal a Miller B for next weekend. Both op and gefs mean show lp moving up thru the Southern Appalachians and transferring off the coast with a nice hp somewhat anchored over ME/SE Canada due to well-positioned confluence. Im sure it will change but yet another event to track. 18z gfs op also held serve with Monday PM/Tuesday AM mix event in SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Today's high in East Nantmeal PA was a bit higher than some surrounding spots at 16.3...however still good for a record low maximum temp that broke a 125 year record for the Chester County Pa record database that was set way back in 1896 when the high was 17 degrees. The record low max tomorrow is also 17 degrees...but a bit more recent having been set back in 1996 right before the Great Blizzard of 1996. The WXSIM and NWS forecast both indicate a low of 2 degrees by Saturday morning...however the NWS forecast for Sunday AM (1 below zero) is 3 degrees lower than my WXSIM forecast which sees an early Sunday low of again 2 degrees here in East Nantmeal Twp. Regarding all-time records for the County...not that close to the all-time Chester County record tomorrow morning - which is 4 degrees below zero set back in 1904. If the NWS forecast is correct Sunday will be very close to a record low set just 4 years ago back in 2014 when we hit 1.6 degrees below zero...however WXSIM shows only 2 degrees above...we shall see. Stay warm my friends!! Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 -1 already,as the dive begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 6, 2018 Author Share Posted January 6, 2018 Current temp is 6 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 3F Just took a Jeb walk. Mega-ultra-super crisp out. Calm/no wind...no cars, no people...every crunch from beneath my boots was magnified/echoed to the Nth degree. Really cool... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Low this morning was 3.4F and today's high so far is 13.9F Will we finally get below zero tonight? From projections a week ago this final cold high is verifying several degrees milder than projected. Dug out my ancient weather log book recorded in Horsham, PA Dec 25,1983 10F and -3F (That's the super cold Christmas i remember) Jan 10,1982 10F and -2F Jan 17, 1982 0F and -4F Jan 21,1984 13F and -10F Jan 20, 1985 10F and -10F Has it been really cold yes, does it compare to the cold of my younger years really not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Some pictures of the frozen Delaware River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Topped out at 9.5F up here in Saylorsburg. Just brutal to spend anytime outside today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Bottomed out at 6F this morning and made it to 14F as a high. Currently 13 F & partly cloudy just ahead of sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Again one of the warmer spots today here on the frozen tundra of NW Chesco - High 15.2 Low 3.8. Today's high was the lowest max temp for the date in the 125 year data set for Chester County - old record was 17 in 1996 as we awaited the Blizzard!. Still today being the 12th straight day of below freezing temps gets us to the 4th longest stretch in recorded history...tomorrow will get us to #3 longest stretches of sub 32 ever!! That is very impressive to say the least!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 Current temp is down to 5 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 3.4F meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 All this hype of going below Zero tonight even in philly. Was expecting a low of -5 here in quakertown. Sitting at 5 at 1 am. Highly doubt it drop another 10 degrees. Can anyone get a dam forecast correct for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 43 minutes ago, Stormman96 said: All this hype of going below Zero tonight even in philly. Was expecting a low of -5 here in quakertown. Sitting at 5 at 1 am. Highly doubt it drop another 10 degrees. Can anyone get a dam forecast correct for once It's a warming world especially for lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 Current temp is 3 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 5 hours ago, Stormman96 said: All this hype of going below Zero tonight even in philly. Was expecting a low of -5 here in quakertown. Sitting at 5 at 1 am. Highly doubt it drop another 10 degrees. Can anyone get a dam forecast correct for once Currently 3F here in NW Philly. It looks like it was somewhat breezy overnight which might have precluded strong radiational cooling. The winds dropped off now less than an hour before sunrise but not sure how much lower it might go. A couple stations a mile or 2 NW of me in Wyndmoor are reporting 0 & -1 (they are at a lower elevation than me). KLOM metar recently reported -2F. As a sidenote, I believe KPHL has not gone below 0F since 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 All this hype of going below Zero tonight even in philly. Was expecting a low of -5 here in quakertown. Sitting at 5 at 1 am. Highly doubt it drop another 10 degrees. Can anyone get a dam forecast correct for onceThe mos guidance never had you or philly below zero. Not sure where u r getting your forecasts. Recent NAM mos runs data had PHL generally around 5F and Doylestown around 2 or 3. GFS mos was only slightly colder with PHL at 4 and DYL at 2 (did see a run with 1F). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The mos guidance never had you or philly below zero. Not sure where u r getting your forecasts. Recent NAM mos runs data had PHL generally around 5F and Doylestown around 2 or 3. GFS mos was only slightly colder with PHL at 4 and DYL at 2 (did see a run with 1F). If you look at Mt. Holly's earlier AFDs yesterday afternoon, they said they were undercutting guidance. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Arctic cold continues. This will likely be the coldest night with decreasing winds, clear skies and ample snow cover in many areas. Our present low temperatures forecast shows -5 to -10 far N/W and -5 to +5 most other areas. This is a few degrees below guidance and overall still looks sound with no changes planned attm. Winds will diminish overnight, but still remain light. Minimum wind chills will be -8 to -20 most areas but near -25 across the southern Poconos. The WSW with the wind chill flags will continue tonight. The point and click for KPHL yesterday evening listed 0F for a low there but was later revised upwards this morning to 4F (when the low was showing 7F) before a later early morning update that removed the low altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Currently 0 here. Got down to -1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 -4 this morning up here in coal country... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Bottomed out at 3F. Now up to 4F with dp -10F and sunny. My sis in Wyndmoor had bought a 4ft replacement Celeste fig last spring (replacing a 15ft one that got killed back in the 2013/2014 cold snap after about 10 years in the ground). I dutifully wrapped it in November, creating a thick mummy with layers of insulation covered with a tarp. Am hoping it survived this extended cold period (where we still have much more winter to go), although I am concerned. It did get rooted in pretty good but it is still in its first year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Might be the first time both residences were below zero. -8 at the cabin in PA and -2 at the shore. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Wow. Got to minus 3.5. Never expected that. Snow cover with no wind plus radiational cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.