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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread


Rtd208

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6 hours ago, Newman said:

Models continue to show a secondary max of precip or some type of barrel low ordeal that gives SE PA some snow on the western edge. Only models not in that boat are the NAM and GFS it appears. 

NAM has it, it just overdoes things in the South. It is the baroclinic flareup and inverted trof/weakness I mentioned yesterday. Big ticket thermal gradient along immediate coast. Red flag for 2ndary precip shield farther W.

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Made it down to -7 overnight!! To think these could be daytime highs Friday! I don't ever remember this type of sustained cold.. it's had to be quite some years.

I've been trying to follow this midweek storm, there's a lot of variables at play so we may see some changes yet. Srefs are warning level snow in ABE and PHL. Qpf at ABE .3 ~ 4-8" with ratios. PHL .5"~ 6-10"

Happy New year's fellas

Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk

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Got down to 5F last night and temps have more than doubled since then -- up to 11F now. Still feel we're on the outside looking in with the mid-week storm, but all our snow events have over performed this season, so why not this one, too?

 

Happy New Year everyone!

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47 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

Made it down to -7 overnight!! To think these could be daytime highs Friday! I don't ever remember this type of sustained cold.. it's had to be quite some years.

 

January 1977 - the middle 2 weeks - always stood out to me.  I called it the "glacier period".  Bitter cold with glacial ice from salt-encrusted partially melted shoveled snow that packed down and froze solid... over and over.  Having to use SEPTA to go to school at the time and living where I did with steep hills along the route, the bus often detoured from the hills and left us stranded to walk up or down on the glaciers to get on at a different stop.

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17 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

got down to 11F last night. if we don't hit freezing today we 'll have a stretch of 10 days not getting above 32 after this weekend. pretty impressive for this area. ice jams may become an issue next week if we see rain. 

Mt Holly is the best. From their climo section about this cold outbreak, found it super interesting and informative. Great work guys.

 

So,  since odds strongly favor temps maintaining aob 32F through
Sunday Jan 7...here is a perspective on how this will rank in our
official records.

I want to lead with the following:  In a short 20 year period of
accessible history...Mount Pocono has never recorded a single day of
subzero. It has only 2 consecutive days of sub 10F. There is a goo d
chance Mount Pocono will remain at or below zero from about 7 PM
Friday through about 10 AM Sunday. That will also include some wind
chill of 30 below.

PHL 12 consecutive days would be ranking 4th longest (tied) and
coldest such period since February 1979.  The last time PHL was
above freezing was 1955z/26th = 255PM EST.

ABE 13 consecutive days  would be ranking 4th longest (tied) and
coldest since February 1979. The last time ABE was above freezing
was 1835z/25th=135PM EST.

RDG 13 consecutive days would be ranking 7th longest and coldest
since December 2000. the last time RDG was above freezing was
1855z/25th=155PM EST. (This data is from our XMACIS;  Our climate
binder has this as 8th longest).

TTN 13 consecutive days would be ranking 4th longest and coldest
since February 1979. The last time TTN was above freezing was
2120z/25=420PM EST.

ILG 12 consecutive days would be ranking 3rd longest (tied) and
coldest since February 1979. The last time ILG was above freezing
was 2051z/26=351PM EST.

ACY (shaky and uncertain based on what happens this afternoon and
tonight)  12 consecutive days would be ranking 5th longest and
coldest since February 1979. The last time ACY was above freezing
was 2125z/26=425PM EST.
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18 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Made it down to 6F here last night, colder than the night before which had a low of 10F. Up to 24F already. Coldest so far was 2F the other night.....seems like a good chance of making 0 here come Friday or Saturday. In the 6 years at this location have come close, but no cigar yet.

with snow on the ground and an already cold air mass in place, combined with the super bombed out low off the coast funneling arctic air right down to us, I think much of the area will have a shot at going below zero with the exception of the city. Though the airport very well may get there too. Saturday night will be just about the most ideal radiational cooling you can get in these parts. Clear skies, little wind, and snow cover and the fact saturday will probably only get to 15 tops in places means below zero should occur at several locations in the area imo.

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