wkd Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 33 minutes ago, RedSky said: Ukie run is borderline absurdity 12" to State College Where are you getting the Ukie precip output past 72hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Well after overperforming now on 3 events in December finishing with 14.1", I am almost over getting 5.5" after a forecasted 20-24" the night before last March. Almost over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 26 minutes ago, wkd said: Where are you getting the Ukie precip output past 72hrs? Saw it posted in the NYC forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Well after overperforming now on 3 events in December finishing with 14.1", I am almost over getting 5.5" after a forecasted 20-24" the night before last March. Almost over it Yeah the euro is no longer the king but i wanted to see it come further west for next week, both fingers are crossed that the EPS members look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 EPS west of the OP, 3" mean snowfall line in SEPA So far today is all about winning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 EPS west of the OP, 3" mean snowfall line in SEPA So far today is all about winning Baby steps but we still have a long way to go. Right now we are watching from the sidelines looking East and waving at a monster storm passing us well off the coast while we are partly cloudy....unless u believe the Ukie and 12z EPS. It's close but still so far away. Maybe this can pull a Jan 25, 2000 and keep inching closer then nail a full phase over the SE. That dang front running vortmax is screwing things up. Maybe models are incorrectly keying on that wave as the main show? We can hope. Work schedule stinks....I will miss every run thru 12z Monday but Im pulling for good trends/good vibes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 31, 2017 Author Share Posted December 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bliz299 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Not this year but I thought this would be of interest. 100 years ago today, Dec. 30th, Philly had a low of -4F, A.C. -5F. Here in Cape May -2F. Dec., 1917-Jan., 1918 had some REAL COLD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 16 hours ago, Bliz299 said: Not this year but I thought this would be of interest. 100 years ago today, Dec. 30th, Philly had a low of -4F, A.C. -5F. Here in Cape May -2F. Dec., 1917-Jan., 1918 had some REAL COLD. That same winter PHL had 43.9" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just had a light flurry here, sky is clearing out. 13F currently after a high of 16F and a low of 10F this morning. Happy New Year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Guidance ha been inching west today with the Jan 4-5 storm. I don't have any real meteorology why right now because I haven't looked too in depth but based on seasonal trends, I think we see at least a few inches from this and possibly this shifts back to a significant event. I wouldn't take any model even if it was showing a direct hit with the fast flow at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Guidance ha been inching west today with the Jan 4-5 storm. I don't have any real meteorology why right now because I haven't looked too in depth but based on seasonal trends, I think we see at least a few inches from this and possibly this shifts back to a significant event. I wouldn't take any model even if it was showing a direct hit with the fast flow at this range.I posted in the mid atlantic forum my thoughts on why this will impact parts of our region on Thursday (eastern areas more likely BUT I would NOT rule out something more widespread as we get closer to the event and the hi res guidance can focus on the barolcinic zone setting up just off the coast). Extreme thermal gradient-based anomaly set up just offshore. How many times have we watched storms follow the thermal gradient boundary over the years? Even on land where there snow cover vs no snow cover I have seen lp try and follow that thermal gradient/temp differential. Call it the path of least resistance. Now throw in the fact that much of the East from mid atl northward is running 15-25 degrees BN in 2m temps AND AN sst's in the Gulf Stream and you have one hell of a thermal gradient. Low pressure LOVES these gradients and is part of the reason the globals were hinting at this western dual low off and on. Watch as we get closer the higher res models pickup on this.....as long as we dont see the mean trof trend too far East. But the h5 trends have been favorable in tugging the main show farther west and we are back to seeing this possible 2nd low (baroclinicity?) nearer the coast. Not sure 100% how this will unfold irt if the main show stays east or we continue to see the main track tick west. Also, navgem is a red flag again. Farthest west of all guidance from the model with the most progressive bias. These things shouldnt be overlooked. Interest level raised to a 5.5 out of 10. More later. Happy New Year everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Geez, even the Euro has snow in SE PA Thursday from a monster LP area offshore and this forum is like the walking dead. What else do you guys want at 90 hours lead time? A direct hit? If I woke from a coma and knew nothing and only saw the Euro, NAVGEM, and NAM progs for early Thursday I would assume this forum would be flooded with posts of anticipation. Maybe y'all are just being cautious which isnt a bad thing, but talking to myself in here gets old after a while. There is the *potential* for a SECS/MECS in 4 daya and just because models are "all over it" doesnt mean it is DOA. We are so close....so darn close though admittedly still many steps away but not out of the realm of possibility. It wont take much to turn this into a major impact. Could go both ways I guess but my optimism is on the rise. Trying to use meteorology over modelology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I think the reason people arent excited is because we have people like DT saying it bascially cannot happen. Basically saying no chance of big snow for the big cities he basically says we have no 500 low to pull the storm closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I think the reason people arent excited is because we have people like DT saying it bascially cannot happen. Basically saying no chance of big snow for the big cities he basically says we have no 500 low to pull the storm closer He may be right and I dont necessarily *love* the setup but there is more to it than just a 500mb low. There are what looks like 4 shortwaves that are flying thu the pattern at the same time: a front runner in the stj, one behind it at the base of the trof in the stj, a vigorous shortwave in the n jet diving south, and a potent piece of energy just a hair behind diving down the back side of the developing trof. Yeah, the models are not showing a closed 500mb low (except the 18z NAM which has one in the SE) BUT a few minor timing adjustments and it would not be far fetched to see this feature pop up as lead time shortens. I still think the thermal boundary along the coast is going to play a bigger role. You can see on the CMC and NAM a coastal front setting up on the western side of the Gulf Stream clear as day. CMC has the weakness follow that baroclinic zone. NAM starts to do same and even tries to make this western lp the main storm. If it extended farther it would certainly ride the coastal front just off the coast imo. Not bad trends today. It might take another 24 hours for models to start buying into this so I wouldnt write anything off based on the next few models runs. I really want to get the energy onshore out west and see how guidance handles that feature before I commit 100% or write this off completely. Im feeling better today than I did 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I think it is all around the "big snow" idea....this is not a set up for a big snow...but so far this year we are all well above normal without a big snow. For you younger folks here I remember growing up in Philly in the 70's and never seeing a 6" snowfall in my life until 1978 when I was 15 years old. The recent years with global warming or climate change (name change since we are not really warming anymore) have led to the current generation think we get 10" snowfalls every year - that is not true. Climo for this area ranges from 20" to 40" from SE to NW. Clearly with this upcoming storm eastern areas toward the shore have a much better chance for this to be something significant. Either way a storm of this potential size based on pressure needs to be watched...stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said: I think it is all around the "big snow" idea....this is not a set up for a big snow...but so far this year we are all well above normal without a big snow. For you younger folks here I remember growing up in Philly in the 70's and never seeing a 6" snowfall in my life until 1978 when I was 15 years old. The recent years with global warming or climate change (name change since we are not really warming anymore) have led to the current generation think we get 10" snowfalls every year - that is not true. Climo for this area ranges from 20" to 40" from SE to NW. Clearly with this upcoming storm eastern areas toward the shore have a much better chance for this to be something significant. Either way a storm of this potential size based on pressure needs to be watched...stay tuned! Don't forget the winter of '66 where I believe there was about 12" in Philly. Have some pics of that somewhere of me and my younger sis in front of our garage in our snow suits and Yogi Bear boots with kiddy snow shovels in hand. In winter of 1977 - 1978 I was a junior in high school and finally had the chance to make a decent snowman. And it even garnered attention where cars slowed for the passengers to get a look and pedestrians passing by took pics of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6F currently morning low was 5F Coldest night of the winter so far coming to start the new year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Wunderground has me at 5.4F which I think is wrong. Other reporting stations have me in the 6.5 - 7.5F range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 hour ago, RedSky said: 6F currently morning low was 5F Coldest night of the winter so far coming to start the new year People hanging out in Times Square for hours to watch a ball drop must be thrilled... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Hi res models that are in range starting to show what I was talking about with the inverted trof/weakness/dual low hugging the coastal front on the baroclinic zone along the coast. Rgem is a hit. Happy New Year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ME_wannabe Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 That looks real nice! Hope it holds up. Thanks for posting and Happy, Healthy New Year to you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hi res models that are in range starting to show what I was talking about with the inverted trof/weakness/dual low hugging the coastal front on the baroclinic zone along the coast. Rgem is a hit. Happy New Year! Ralph, I've been following the MA thread as well but got confused and many there are bi-polar which screws me up even more. What are you thinking right now...or wait till after the Euro? Basically I'll take a 2-4" (more would be better) then brutally cold Fri - Sat....w/ weekend playoff football as well. Now that's winter!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Models continue to show a secondary max of precip or some type of barrel low ordeal that gives SE PA some snow on the western edge. Only models not in that boat are the NAM and GFS it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Happy New Year all. At midnight I stood at 8F with dp -7. Beautiful almost full moon out (it will officially be full when it rises again tonight the 1st). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 Very cold night, current temp is 8 here. Happy New Year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Happy New Years everyone! Just took a Jeb walk...quiet, peaceful w/snow on the ground and lights. Super cool! I would take this 0z Euro right now before we get shafted completely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Dr No says HAPPY NEW YEAR to us all! Model has made a major deviation from previous runs here I am thinking it is starting to like the idea of getting the low closer to the coast. But for the record i wish i could keep those amounts i just want something more on the ground before the last big cold push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 Current temp is down to 6 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Ralph, I've been following the MA thread as well but got confused and many there are bi-polar which screws me up even more. What are you thinking right now...or wait till after the Euro? Basically I'll take a 2-4" (more would be better) then brutally cold Fri - Sat....w/ weekend playoff football as well. Now that's winter!!! There is alot of mesoscale stuff and dynamics happening well west of the "main show" that the globals are still struggling with. We likely dont get in on an all out MECS here.....areas East could get in on some nice accums. Still alot to find out. Hi res stuff is starting to pick up on a few things I was noting yesterday. I do think at least a moderate event is very much in play for our area. We certainly didnt take any steps back last night. If anything a few more baby steps closer. Fwiw the CRAS ( I know, I will get blasted for even posting this) is an all out MECS and plays the dynamics perfectly. However, IT IS OVERDONE.....I have no doubt with that. However, (and I didnt mention this elsewhere).....every once in a while this model performs ok under certain situations, It was the first and ONLY model to consistently handle the Boxing Day Storm several years back. Somewhat a similar setup. Interest level up to a 6.5 out of 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.