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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread

Rtd208

By Rtd208,
in Philadelphia Region

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
12F
NAM & GFS give the are 1-1.5" Saturday, I need 1" to get to 10"
Now we have that 2008-2009 nickel&dime winter feel 
 
 
Factor in 15:1 ratios and more like 2-4" of fluff or "cold smoke" as they say. Not a bad look at all and seeing more and more coastal influence once energy nears the warm Atlantic..

Btw.....CMC nas a bomb of a low just offshore midweek with coldest air in decades following behind. -6F it looks like here brrrr.
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RedSky

RedSky

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Factor in 15:1 ratios and more like 2-4" of fluff or "cold smoke" as they say. Not a bad look at all and seeing more and more coastal influence once energy nears the warm Atlantic..

Btw.....CMC nas a bomb of a low just offshore midweek with coldest air in decades following behind. -6F it looks like here brrrr.

CMC has iced palm trees in north Florida too :facepalm:

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted

CMC and Euro depicting a triple phase system Jan 3-5....GFS hardly even has a wave. Fwiw Eastern areas do better on the CMC/Euro.....looks like the low is a touch East of where we want. Somewhat fragile setup for a "near miss" but good signal. However, I urge caution with forecasting big events in this pattern at this range. Things have been progressive given the NS flow. Also, GFS has led the way with a few non-events this season, so there's that to keep in the back of your head as well. Signals there? Yes. Level of interest/excitement right now? A 2 out of 10 with 10 being most excited.

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The Iceman

The Iceman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

CMC and Euro depicting a triple phase system Jan 3-5....GFS hardly even has a wave. Fwiw Eastern areas do better on the CMC/Euro.....looks like the low is a touch East of where we want. Somewhat fragile setup for a "near miss" but good signal. However, I urge caution with forecasting big events in this pattern at this range. Things have been progressive given the NS flow. Also, GFS has led the way with a few non-events this season, so there's that to keep in the back of your head as well. Signals there? Yes. Level of interest/excitement right now? A 2 out of 10 with 10 being most excited.

GFS has been a distant 4th in recent model verification scores...behind even the CMC. It went Euro, UK, CMC, GFS. GFS since the 'upgrade' has been absolutely horrible this season imo

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Newman

Newman

Posted
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42 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

GFS has been a distant 4th in recent model verification scores...behind even the CMC. It went Euro, UK, CMC, GFS. GFS since the 'upgrade' has been absolutely horrible this season imo

I seriously never thought the GFS would EVER be worse than the CMC. But after the CMC's upgrade, it has been noticeably better and the GFS is just.....embarrassing quite frankly.

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KamuSnow

KamuSnow

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

CMC and Euro depicting a triple phase system Jan 3-5....GFS hardly even has a wave. Fwiw Eastern areas do better on the CMC/Euro.....looks like the low is a touch East of where we want. Somewhat fragile setup for a "near miss" but good signal. However, I urge caution with forecasting big events in this pattern at this range. Things have been progressive given the NS flow. Also, GFS has led the way with a few non-events this season, so there's that to keep in the back of your head as well. Signals there? Yes. Level of interest/excitement right now? A 2 out of 10 with 10 being most excited.

One at a time - getting something this weekend would be awesome. Nice to know there are interesting possibilities next week, but the details of the pattern have been hard to decipher looking more than a few days ahead. I am currently getting excited about Saturday, might get the brooms out tomorrow night. Probably wait until it's actually snowing though.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
GFS has been a distant 4th in recent model verification scores...behind even the CMC. It went Euro, UK, CMC, GFS. GFS since the 'upgrade' has been absolutely horrible this season imo

Looks like the CMC and Euro (to a degree) have two lows? One tucked near coast and another displaced to the East. Hoping we can trend towards the Gulf Stream lp and not the one well off to the East. Looks like a delicate setup actually with high fail potential at this point.

 

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Newman

Newman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, RedSky said:

ECM hits us with the fantasy BIG DOG day 6-7 but we have been down this road last week so...

 

Couldn't believe watching it come in. An almost perfect scenario for the Philly-NYC metro areas. Triple. Phase. Whether it comes true or not (Pattern supports a big storm), I'm marking this run as one of the most prolific I have ever seen.

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RedSky

RedSky

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Newman said:

Couldn't believe watching it come in. An almost perfect scenario for the Philly-NYC metro areas. Triple. Phase. Whether it comes true or not (Pattern supports a big storm), I'm marking this run as one of the most prolific I have ever seen.

Humorous thing about it is the fact it's a completely different breed of dog being shown to us then last week, Pit Bull vs St. Bernard maybe.

 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

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Posted
ECM hits us with the fantasy BIG DOG day 6-7 but we have been down this road last week so...

 

Different setup and ridging in the N Atl starting to show at a favorable time, even being a transient feature. Potential is there but I urge caution for right now at this range. The setup looks odd to me.....you are close to a triple phase but 1) the mean trof is slightly displaced to the East 2) there is a lead piece of energy running out ahead of the main system.....Ive seen this enough before irt big dog fails to know that if that wave runs too far out ahead it will probably pull the system East (while crushing New England obviously) 3) even with a triple phase the energy in the NS would be better forecast to be diving thru the Eastern Plains/midwest as opposed to the Ohio Valley. Such a trajectory would allow for a neg tilt West of the Mississippi River rather than East of there which could send the system off the SE Coast bypassing the Mid Atlantic and merely grazing us before hitting New England.

4) 6 days lead time.

 

Certainly holds alot of potential but rather than sitting here saying how good it looks I think a more cautious approach in pointing out the cons is more responsible for now. There is still work to be done to get this to a better place.

 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
Anyone see the Euro control? 947 just SE of LI. That’s a BECS if I’ve ever seen oneimageproxy.php?img=&key=20fe2b78d4e66dff6dc37bf6861d3fe13b6bfee4885e41dff1aa83c48abe70d9
8E599DE7-6317-4F15-832E-3C52B13D6E9A.thumb.jpeg.fc4700b3536334d942dd7e2613ee5aad.jpeg
But did you see the eps? Majority are misses well off to the East. This is probably an all or nothing........big dog vs partly sunny type of setup. Odds favor the off the coast grazer/fish storm for now based on mean trof positioning, progressive pattern, seasonal suppression trends, and the few cherry-picked ops that actually have implications for us here. Yes, its nice to see the Euro op with this (the control usually overdoes things) but Im not thrilled with the setup still. There are hints of a transient N Atl ridge popping right before storm evolution but that has started to fade somewhat past 12 hours. My expectations are tempered as I've been down this road before with similar setups. There is a reason an outcome like the control is unlikely and very rare. My interest/excitement level still a 2 out of 10 even after seeing the Euro and the control.
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RedSky

RedSky

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
1 hour ago, LVblizzard said:
Anyone see the Euro control? 947 just SE of LI. That’s a BECS if I’ve ever seen oneimageproxy.php?img=&key=20fe2b78d4e66dff6dc37bf6861d3fe13b6bfee4885e41dff1aa83c48abe70d9
8E599DE7-6317-4F15-832E-3C52B13D6E9A.thumb.jpeg.fc4700b3536334d942dd7e2613ee5aad.jpeg

But did you see the eps? Majority are misses well off to the East. This is probably an all or nothing........big dog vs partly sunny type of setup. Odds favor the off the coast grazer/fish storm for now based on mean trof positioning, progressive pattern, seasonal suppression trends, and the few cherry-picked ops that actually have implications for us here. Yes, its nice to see the Euro op with this (the control usually overdoes things) but Im not thrilled with the setup still. There are hints of a transient N Atl ridge popping right before storm evolution but that has started to fade somewhat past 12 hours. My expectations are tempered as I've been down this road before with similar setups. There is a reason an outcome like the control is unlikely and very rare. My interest/excitement level still a 2 out of 10 even after seeing the Euro and the control.

Come on Ralphie we know you are hovering near 5 out of 10

 

 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

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I'm honestly very cautious with the Jan 4 thing. It is such a fragile setup, really. A triple phase (which seems like a stretch still) with the currently progged mean trof location and it likely floods the coastal plain in Mid Atl to our area with warmth based off of a SE US development. Weak N Atl or zero ridging and system zips ENE. Front running stj energy stays out ahead of amplifying midwest trof (most likely scenario as I type this) will drag the entire trof East or create more of a broad trof with similar too far East result.

There are very few solutions on the models outside of the Euro quite frankly that are really honking and truly favorable for a big widespread hit for us. Someone else said it well.....its a coin toss right now between coastal tucker or OTS but the odds of a triple phaser into a MECS/HECS for us would be the equivalent of getting that flipped coin to land standing up on its side.

We will get ours but likely need to be patient for just a bit longer. A monster snow event just may not be in the cards this year with the progressive ns and the Atlantic side not working in our favor. Best chance for a solid thumping would be a swfe where waves ride up along a boundary out of the sw and along the se ridge boundary. It will likely take near perfect timing though to get a transient favorable setup to work for us for a big wrapped up MECS this season. I still think we nickel and dime our way to at least avg snowfall and very possibly AN snowfall once all is said and done this season.

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