E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread

[SP]

12 hours ago, SP said:

Love these setups for the Nj coast. Not saying they always deliver or over perform however there are many 1-3’s that turned into 3-6 and essentially leave the GSP and other roads snow covered thru the evening commute. Nice thump potential.

We shall see.....☃️


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Like a prophet.....lol

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Overnight Sunday into Monday AM could potentially cause another batch of rush hour (Monday AM) headaches for parts of the region. Some guidance has LL cold hanging tough as a warm (relatively speaking) front moves Northward. Precip is ragged along the front but periods of fzra and sleet are possible especially farther N and W from I95 in the favored valley areas. Alot will depend on qpf availability as well as guidance hinting that a weakish wave develops East of the DelMarVa which would also keep a weak wedge in place. Doesnt look like a huge deal but caution is urged as it looks like some spots walk a fine line for a period between 33 and rain/pingers or 31 and fzra. 

Pattern "relaxes" just a bit as the SE Ridge tries to flex before another cold front swings thru on Wednesday bringing temps back near normal to slightly BN for Thursday. Watching a wave of LP to the South on Thursday. Both Euro and GFS have it but both are relatively far enough South for now that it doesn't impact the area. Euro is farther north than the GFS fwiw......something to at least watch.

Headed into the weekend before Christmas, looks like brief moderation again Friday in advance of the next NS front swinging thru (maybe) on Saturday. It is THIS front/longwave feature that will become our boundary for active weather from Christmas weekend thru late Christmas week....possibly farther as details become more muddled. Some guidance pushes the front thru and sets it up South of the region, others struggle to get it thru at all (but are trending towards pushing it thru quicker). This is where the outlook for Christmas and the following week gets more interesting. With a NS trof potentially setting up in the Northeast coupled with a split flow out West and a SW trof ejecting out pieces of energy, we could be setting up for quite an active period with Clippers trying to swing thru the NS and Southwest energy ejecting out of the SJ. I could see several ways the period plays out depending on timing and location of these features. Boundary pushed thru with dominant NS we see cold with clipper-like disturbances and SJ energy suppression. Boundary stalling to our West (least likely at this point) and we see waves riding the boundary out of the SJ bringing cold rain or thump snow to ice to rain. Boundary right along the Gulf Stream (which we have already seen a few times since mid November) and we could be on the cold side of the boundary with higher chances for snow as waves ride the old front. Could also wobble to and fro depending on and NAO ridging, WAR activity, and strength/location of the SER. ALOT of ifs in the LR.

I will just say if there were ever a potential for a somewhat extended period of frozen active weather, the timeline between Christmas weekend and New Year's weekend looks to be it. In a perfect scenario, we get the boundary to setup along the Gulf Stream with waves riding up along it and several chances for smaller events. Sort of like the system we had on December 9......remember with that the boundary was well off the coast and models surprised us as we got closer ticking the stationary boundary back to the N and W. Keep this in mind if we start seeing the models hang this front up really close to the area as the trend has been to move this feature N and W as lead time shortens.....so I would be skeptical if say the front becomes progged to be right over the Jersey beaches showing snow for I95 and rain East of the Del River as these boundaries have all tended to move N and W with shorter leads this early season. I would take any verbatim OPS solution with a grain of salt right now past 5 days and use the ens, tho the pattern presents challenges for both modeling systems imo. Keep in mind, we could also fail miserably if this boundary decides to setup West of us. We could also score with a big phasing event as more SW energy gets ejected around the split flow, though I kind of prefer the persistent 1-3"/3-6" systems every few days. Wouldn't mind taking a chance on a big storm but that is a huge *chance*. At least we KNOW that with the boundary type gradient setup we have been able to trend favorably and score when it has setup near the Gulf Stream. 

It will be interesting to see where the pattern heads as we approach the holiday weekend. Lots of uncertainty which could yield huge differences in our weather. 

[bigtenfan]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Overnight Sunday into Monday AM could potentially cause another batch of rush hour (Monday AM) headaches for parts of the region. Some guidance has LL cold hanging tough as a warm (relatively speaking) front moves Northward. Precip is ragged along the front but periods of fzra and sleet are possible especially farther N and W from I95 in the favored valley areas. Alot will depend on qpf availability as well as guidance hinting that a weakish wave develops East of the DelMarVa which would also keep a weak wedge in place. Doesnt look like a huge deal but caution is urged as it looks like some spots walk a fine line for a period between 33 and rain/pingers or 31 and fzra. 

Pattern "relaxes" just a bit as the SE Ridge tries to flex before another cold front swings thru on Wednesday bringing temps back near normal to slightly BN for Thursday. Watching a wave of LP to the South on Thursday. Both Euro and GFS have it but both are relatively far enough South for now that it doesn't impact the area. Euro is farther north than the GFS fwiw......something to at least watch.

Headed into the weekend before Christmas, looks like brief moderation again Friday in advance of the next NS front swinging thru (maybe) on Saturday. It is THIS front/longwave feature that will become our boundary for active weather from Christmas weekend thru late Christmas week....possibly farther as details become more muddled. Some guidance pushes the front thru and sets it up South of the region, others struggle to get it thru at all (but are trending towards pushing it thru quicker). This is where the outlook for Christmas and the following week gets more interesting. With a NS trof potentially setting up in the Northeast coupled with a split flow out West and a SW trof ejecting out pieces of energy, we could be setting up for quite an active period with Clippers trying to swing thru the NS and Southwest energy ejecting out of the SJ. I could see several ways the period plays out depending on timing and location of these features. Boundary pushed thru with dominant NS we see cold with clipper-like disturbances and SJ energy suppression. Boundary stalling to our West (least likely at this point) and we see waves riding the boundary out of the SJ bringing cold rain or thump snow to ice to rain. Boundary right along the Gulf Stream (which we have already seen a few times since mid November) and we could be on the cold side of the boundary with higher chances for snow as waves ride the old front. Could also wobble to and fro depending on and NAO ridging, WAR activity, and strength/location of the SER. ALOT of ifs in the LR.

I will just say if there were ever a potential for a somewhat extended period of frozen active weather, the timeline between Christmas weekend and New Year's weekend looks to be it. In a perfect scenario, we get the boundary to setup along the Gulf Stream with waves riding up along it and several chances for smaller events. Sort of like the system we had on December 9......remember with that the boundary was well off the coast and models surprised us as we got closer ticking the stationary boundary back to the N and W. Keep this in mind if we start seeing the models hang this front up really close to the area as the trend has been to move this feature N and W as lead time shortens.....so I would be skeptical if say the front becomes progged to be right over the Jersey beaches showing snow for I95 and rain East of the Del River as these boundaries have all tended to move N and W with shorter leads this early season. I would take any verbatim OPS solution with a grain of salt right now past 5 days and use the ens, tho the pattern presents challenges for both modeling systems imo. Keep in mind, we could also fail miserably if this boundary decides to setup West of us. We could also score with a big phasing event as more SW energy gets ejected around the split flow, though I kind of prefer the persistent 1-3"/3-6" systems every few days. Wouldn't mind taking a chance on a big storm but that is a huge *chance*. At least we KNOW that with the boundary type gradient setup we have been able to trend favorably and score when it has setup near the Gulf Stream. 

It will be interesting to see where the pattern heads as we approach the holiday weekend. Lots of uncertainty which could yield huge differences in our weather. 

Excellent write up.

[JCT777]

I agree with your thoughts, Ralph. Very nice breakdown of the next 10 days or so.

[Birds~69]

NBC10 looking for a new/another MET? Posted on Indeed 2 days ago...

http://tinyurl.com/y9j8v9rx

[Ralph Wiggum]

Things remain unchanged since yesterday irt the thoughts I posted. Still alot of uncertainty as to where the pattern goes and how quickly it sets up from Dec 24ish thru NYD. I am starting to key in on the period from Dec 25-Dec 30 for a potential wintry event for our area. Signals are mixed but being hinted at that we get a pattern changing longwave swing across around the 23rd give or take a day on either side with associated LP moving thru the OV and into SE Canada. Cold air should either pour in behind or slowly bleed into the area depending which ens mean you believe. Thereafter as we approach Christmas Day and Christmas week, disturbances are diving around the backside of the PV and associated mean trof attempting to dig into the N Plains/Upper Midwest. While this is happening, shortwaves are racing under the split flow in the SW US headed East. Would be surprised if something during this range didnt impact us and yes, if we take our chances with a more significant phased storm we could still fail with the SE Ridge getting pumped thanks to a full phase in the wrong spot. With that said, confluence signals over SE and Atlantic Canada are being hinted at and could counter to prevent any cutting system. Anyway.....i've gotten too specific for a LR discussion but know there is decent potential for *something* between Dec 25-Dec 30 after our longwave 'cutter' moves thru around the 23rd give or take a day.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Watch the modeled lakes cutter 12/23 trend toward snow.

[Newman]

2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Watch the modeled lakes cutter 12/23 trend toward snow.

Models have it cutting through Illinois right now. There's no way it will trend that far east in the next 132 hours to give us snow. The pattern before the 25th doesn't look good for snow right now. Will have to wait after until the SE ridge can get squashed again.

[RedSky]

It was a good December stretch, March is gonna rock

 

[Voyager]

4 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Watch the modeled lakes cutter 12/23 trend toward snow.

As much as I don't want to come home from Arizona, 12/23 is my return fly day (ABE) so I'd rather it not snow that day...

[Ralph Wiggum]

It was a good December stretch, March is gonna rock
 

What? Over? Are you implying it's "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no! And it ain't over now. 'Cause when the goin' gets tough . . . the tough get goin'! Who's with me? Let's go! C'mon! What the heck happened to the RedSky I used to know? Where's the spirit? Where's the guts, huh?! This could be the greatest night of our lives, but you're gonna let it be the worst!

[Ralph Wiggum]

EPS upon further inspection not *horrible* but still not quite a snowy looking map for the holiday like the 0Z GFS op had verbatim. However, notable changes as the boundary is a shade quicker moving thru. Probably in actuality need this feature about 12-18 hours faster if hoping for holiday cold but a step towards the good and still about a week out. You can see on the 2m means the cold air seeing into the region during the day on the 25th. Surface slp maps on the EPS mean still showing sprawling HP seeping across the Northern part of the country and headed East. Also of note is the persistent (and increasing?) signal on the EPS for a wave along the Gulf Stream on Christmas. Now whether this is just the front passing thru, an actual wave of LP, or cold chasing the precip is up for discussion. I will say tho, finally seeing a closed off circulation off the coast is not a bad signal at this range on a means and worth keeping one eye open towards:
eta: some guidance is close to having a quasi 50/50 low as well and you can see that feature here tho displaced....but not impossibly far off.

[ChescoWx]

With 7.6" already here in Chester County Pa I went back to the local records with 123 years of December records (1894-2016) we have had 43 month's of December with more than 6" of snow recorded. The seasonal snows that followed ranged from a high of 86.6" in 2009/10 to a low of just 11.3" in 1970/71. The average of those 43 seasons was 41.5". Based on these seasons we have a 7% chance of >80" of snow / 12% chance of > 70" / 14% chance of >60" / 30% chance of >50" / 54% chance of >40" and a 61% chance of > 30" of snow

Below are the ranges

3 seasons >80" - 1995-96 (81.9") / 2009-10 (86.6") / 2013-14 (80.0")

2 seasons >70" - 1904-5 (79.7") / 1909-10 (76.8")

1 season >60" - 2002-3 (62.6")

7 seasons >50" - 1910-11 (52.6") / 1915-16 (50.2") /1916-17 (53.8") / 1921-22 (53.4") / 1957-58 (58.0") / 1966-67 (57.0") / 1982-83 (50.3")

10 seasons >40"  3 seasons > 30" 14 seasons > 20" and just 3 seasons with between 10" to 20" of snow

[Jsdphilly]

3 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

The average of those 43 seasons was 41.5". Based on these seasons we have a 7% chance of >80" of snow / 12% chance of > 70" / 14% chance of >60" / 30% chance of >50" / 54% chance of >40" and a 61%

This is awesome. Thank you for this. Give me hope for a big season!

 

[ChescoWx]

Strange looking Euro 12z run - it shows the front pushing just south of I95 with low 40's on Christmas day....then it moves back north as a warm front and temps soar to near 60 on Christmas day....then on the 26th temps struggle to get above freezing. Does not seem like a plausible solution IMHO....corrected a bit east of the 0z but likely to move a bit more east and not have the front come back. Thinking near normal on Christmas Day and then the real cold hits and sticks for a while

[Hurricane Agnes]

4 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Strange looking Euro 12z run - it shows the front pushing just south of I95 with low 40's on Christmas day....then it moves back north as a warm front and temps soar to near 60 on Christmas day....then on the 26th temps struggle to get above freezing. Does not seem like a plausible solution IMHO....corrected a bit east of the 0z but likely to move a bit more east and not have the front come back. Thinking near normal on Christmas Day and then the real cold hits and sticks for a while

Occluded front?

[Rtd208]

Current temp is 47 here.

[Rtd208]

Just playing devils advocate a bit, this could change and who knows what will happen after this.

 

[zenmsav6810]

On 12/16/2017 at 8:47 PM, Birds~69 said:

NBC10 looking for a new/another MET? Posted on Indeed 2 days ago...

http://tinyurl.com/y9j8v9rx

They should hire Ralph! 

[Birds~69]

24 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

They should hire Ralph! 

Believe me there are plenty on this board (including Ralph) who could wipe the doors off some of the TV "Mets". I mean many here who don't even have any formal education in the field besides learning...watching every model run...dissecting it while "jonesing" for the next model while staying up 24hrs+ at times. Looking at analogs....another model run...then thinking what may/may not go wrong? Or what should happen? Wash, rinse and repeat.....sometimes a fight breaks out.

[The Plowsman]

Strange looking Euro 12z run - it shows the front pushing just south of I95 with low 40's on Christmas day....then it moves back north as a warm front and temps soar to near 60 on Christmas day....then on the 26th temps struggle to get above freezing. Does not seem like a plausible solution IMHO....corrected a bit east of the 0z but likely to move a bit more east and not have the front come back. Thinking near normal on Christmas Day and then the real cold hits and sticks for a while

Got a seemingly stupid question. "I95" by govt def means North/South Interstate. Fine. So how do folks continually (in weather circles anyway) say... "storm looks like it's South of I95"? Just curious.  

 

 

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

9 hours ago, The Plowsman said:

Got a seemingly stupid question. "I95" by govt def means North/South Interstate. Fine. So how do folks continually (in weather circles anyway) say... "storm looks like it's South of I95"? Just curious.  

 

 

 

Because if you look at where it goes, it's not really going "true" N/S but runs more SW/NE around here. And since it doesn't hug the coast but bisects states, there will be areas to the N/NW of it and S/SE of it in our area.

 

[The Iceman]

I too think January will see moderation but 2nd week seems awfully early for it to occur imo especially with the pacific looking the way it does. I think 2nd half of january will be AN but there will be a good storm chance before that moderation. I also like the 25-30th time period like Ralph does. Very good chance we go to rain as I see us being in the battleground but at the very least QPF shouldn't be an issue. I'm almost half way to my average already and every event has overperformed imby. December as a whole has been a very good month for us and we never saw one SECS. If we get a SECS almost all of us will get at least to average even if here on out is mild.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Thanks for the kind words above guys but yes, there are many in these subforums more than capable of applying for and securing that position at NBC.

Front and longwave pattern changer scheduled to swing thru on Saturday. Mean trof will start to creep East behind this boundary and most guidance now in agreement that second part of Sunday into first part of Christmas Day will be the transition period from AN temps down to BN temps. Still watching Dec 25 for potential wintry weather possibilities. This is still a thread-the-needle sort of scenario for areas right along I95 based on current ensemble means. EPS/GEFS/GEPS are all firmly on board now in reflecting a surface low pressure area developing off the Mid Atlantic coast early on Monday then traveling to the benchmark. Nice track and setup that has both pros and cons associated with it.

Things I dont particularly like are: 1) surface wave coming N thru Tennessee Valley then redeveloping off coast is happening a little too far N and a little slower than I would like to see 2) we are counting on CAA to rush the cold air in behind the front and hoping it will cool all layers fast enough that frozen falls before precip pulls away.

Things working in favor: 1) models moving towards a favorable setup with plenty of lead time for positive changes 2)strong signal on all ens means now for some sort of coastal low 3) cold air nearby and not too far away 4) sprawling HP from PAC NW stretching across N US with N/NE flow becoming evident as system develops and heads NE 5) wave/system develops to our S and E.

Here are the ens means surface maps for Monday.....note the EPS is a little far N and closest to coast, GEPS middle of the road, GEFS nice track but temps borderline with cold chasing the precip BUT does give some minor accums. We are close, much closer and different look than 36 hours ago. Plenty of time for changes but keep in mind change can work both ways but for now this is a decent signal:

[hazwoper]

Obviously not the same setup, but, perhaps we can have a similar outcome Christmas day as we had on 12/25/02.  One can certainly hope and the GFS has been wavering on a changeover to heavy to moderate snow Xmas day the past several model runs.  6Z today is certainly enticing.  

[mcwx]

I've had this question on my mind for awhile... but does anyone know why TTN's temp always seem 'high'? is it the topography?

For example, tonight at 9pm, it's currently 35, while surrounding locations are:
Mt Holly, 32
Wrightstown 31
Toms River 25
Somerville 26
Caldwell 33
Newark 37
Doylestown 33
Philadelphia 39

TTN doesn't seem to be an area you could right off as a location affected by urban heat island but does seem to consistently stay warmer than some other sites I thought were similar. 

Thanks

[Ralph Wiggum]

Dec 25-30 has had my attention for a while now. I posted some thoughts on Dec 25th in the other thread. Just want to note here later in that period is starting to garner some of my attention now as well with a SWFE/overunning event to potential coastal event. -epo, -ao, 50/50 low, weak nao ridging, disturbances in stj headed east, mjo 7-8-1.......ingredients are all there and guidance (especially ens) starting to show some good concensus on this potential. 8+ days out but another potential to track. One threat at a time :-)

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

I'll just leave these here so we can look back on them at some point

[Birds~69]

The 55 made me giggle...

[Cobalt]

Pure Chaos