wxhstn74 Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 https://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2017/11/winter-2017-18-outlook-for-southeast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Great write up! I do like the tidbit about increased storminess for the forthcoming spring as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Nice job. I like your attention on the Pac jet. That thing has been on steroids and may lead to some headaches as long as that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, Stebo said: Great write up! I do like the tidbit about increased storminess for the forthcoming spring as well. Yeah. No guarantees but I'd rather be coming out of a Nina than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Just now, Hoosier said: Yeah. No guarantees but I'd rather be coming out of a Nina than not. Same for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Great read as always! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Excellent write-up! Thanks for sharing it with us! It seems like the Pacific Jet has been a big issue for many of our winters. Watching what it has done this fall has also made me hesitant/cautious about getting excited for a "good" winter. What are your thoughts on Lake Effect Snow prospects for Michigan? I am guessing if we have a fast flow, we won't have many opportunities for long-lasting events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted November 28, 2017 Author Share Posted November 28, 2017 I must say with the prevalent Nw-W cold flow you’d think we’d already had a decent Lake effect beginning...but very little, especially Se Mich which always gets “jipped”. Lol. Troubles been when any cyclonic system comes thru; we’ve been on the warmer side with rain then a dry, cyclonic- anticyclonic flow moves in quickly. Latest 00z Tue GFS shows very little in the way of storms for snow - and even the lake effect is pretty well absent! I was looking for mid Dec for a pattern change so we’ll have to see. We need the roughing to dig more into the high plains & Midwest. Best Lk effect month is generally Dec, lets hope the second half turns around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 55 minutes ago, wxhstn74 said: I must say with the prevalent Nw-W cold flow you’d think we’d already had a decent Lake effect beginning...but very little, especially Se Mich which always gets “jipped”. Lol. Troubles been when any cyclonic system comes thru; we’ve been on the warmer side with rain then a dry, cyclonic- anticyclonic flow moves in quickly. Latest 00z Tue GFS shows very little in the way of storms for snow - and even the lake effect is pretty well absent! I was looking for mid Dec for a pattern change so we’ll have to see. We need the roughing to dig more into the high plains & Midwest. Best Lk effect month is generally Dec, lets hope the second half turns around. I was making this point earlier actually, even in the lake belts the pattern while being favorable hasn't yielded like it should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 5 hours ago, wxhstn74 said: I must say with the prevalent Nw-W cold flow you’d think we’d already had a decent Lake effect beginning...but very little, especially Se Mich which always gets “jipped”. Lol. Troubles been when any cyclonic system comes thru; we’ve been on the warmer side with rain then a dry, cyclonic- anticyclonic flow moves in quickly. Latest 00z Tue GFS shows very little in the way of storms for snow - and even the lake effect is pretty well absent! I was looking for mid Dec for a pattern change so we’ll have to see. We need the roughing to dig more into the high plains & Midwest. Best Lk effect month is generally Dec, lets hope the second half turns around. It seems like a lot of people were saying mid December for a pattern change, although the cold itself will come after the first week. Funny thing, we had lots of lake effect here last winter, and outside of a frigid 2 week stretch in December and a week or so in January, it was not a cold winter. Even tho youre calling for normal to above nornal snow, your outlook did have an interesting point - I can't remember the last time we had a cold winter but with light snowfall. Snowy winters have been more common the last 15-17 years or so. I suppose it could happen but as of November, I'm not worried at all. I mean December could be a dud and it still be a blockbuster winter, but it would be nice to have snow for the Christmas season. As blah as last winter was, the Christmas season was pure Courier & Ives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Qualitatively I can see how Detroit will have less now than the northern burbs given the look of the potential Low tracks and temp profiles on tap. To me the smoking gun this winter is the flip flop of the PDO from warm to cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 5 hours ago, DAFF said: Qualitatively I can see how Detroit will have less now than the northern burbs given the look of the potential Low tracks and temp profiles on tap. To me the smoking gun this winter is the flip flop of the PDO from warm to cool. Climatologically speaking Detroit should see a little less than northern burbs. It has been crazy that 3 of the past 4 winters that has not been the case. But in a cold pattern you would think suppression would be more of a worry. Time will tell. I have no problem getting normal snowfall if it' accompanied by cold and lasting snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 15 hours ago, wxhstn74 said: https://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2017/11/winter-2017-18-outlook-for-southeast.html Great write up as always Bill! Hope your enjoying retirement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 20 hours ago, wxhstn74 said: I must say with the prevalent Nw-W cold flow you’d think we’d already had a decent Lake effect beginning...but very little, especially Se Mich which always gets “jipped”. Lol. Troubles been when any cyclonic system comes thru; we’ve been on the warmer side with rain then a dry, cyclonic- anticyclonic flow moves in quickly. Latest 00z Tue GFS shows very little in the way of storms for snow - and even the lake effect is pretty well absent! I was looking for mid Dec for a pattern change so we’ll have to see. We need the roughing to dig more into the high plains & Midwest. Best Lk effect month is generally Dec, lets hope the second half turns around. What we really need is a Low to stall out over Superior, sweeping in cold air and moisture. There has been lots of wind with this fast flow pattern, which I think shreds apart clouds and good snow bands from forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 12/6/17 - Well it finally looks like we may very well turn the corner for lake effect and general snow with clippers that become Eastern Lakes Lows deepening nicely. The longer the upper pattern can hold on to them; the more deepening and snow on their backside! This change comes in this weekend /8-10/ and into the full second week of Dec. Both Euro/ GFS develop a nice Lower Lakes Low Mon-Tue. The #1 clipper pattern depicted across the Lower Lakes on WO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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