12Z Model Thread 12/22

[Metsfan]

by the way.. the pressure of the center I think is 960 ish.. it's really hard to see.. it's very low.. anyone can see what it might be?

964 MB

[Chagrin Falls]

108 HR MONSTER LOW TOTOALLY DIFFERENT FROM LAST 8 RUNS OF THE GFS

sure its east but its is stillm past 84 hrs and the CHANGE is what is significant

And the upper air pattern is so much slower and more amplified.

Damn thing, where is Ralph Nader when you need him? This thing is more dangerous than the Pinto.

[WBRE Wx]

you slow down the energy crashing into the PAC West and you likely have a track much closer to the coast....

Bingo. Looks like it's all about that now... just need it to be about 12 hours slower.

[Paweatherguy1]

My goodness...it bombs it out to 964 east of cape cod. What a bomb.

[Riptide]

Damn, this thing is just crawling. I think the slow movement in combination with the rapid deepening could create a NESIS 4 or NESIS 5-type system. We are now starting to see what this anomalous NAO phase can do, in a strong la nina.

[hudsonvalley21]

964 MB

= 28.45

[IsentropicLift]

Once again...let's all bow down to King Euro.....As I've been saying all along..I've learned the hard way that until prooven differently, trust the euro. At 00z, with a better sampaling of the energy I would expect a solution very similar to whatever today's 12z euro shows. Hopefully the euro maintains its excellent continuity.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

THis is all I needed to see. Don't care that its not there..just the fact that it trended significantly toward the Euro. Can't wait for the ensembles

exactly so before all the weenies start crying it missed my back yard sit back and chill. this is the jump start that was needed to see which model hops on another

[Alpha5]

UKMET came west

albeit not west enough

[ohleary]

It needs to move a hundred miles or so west to slam all of us. That is doable 100 hours out, for sure.

It's doable 36 hours out.

[Baroclinic Zone]

usually does

NOT always

usually

Euro needs to hold serve.

[Jefflaw77]

My goodness...it bombs it out to 964 east of cape cod. What a bomb.

the coas is going to be abliterated, if this thing comes close to the coast. I don't have access to the model output but if this thing were to come closer to the coast are we talking about a snowier version of December 11, 1992 on the coast. What's the pressure gradient between the mega low and the high pressure to the north and west. We're going to be talking about some serious winds if this comes to fruition...

[joey]

UK for those who want a better picture

[phlsnowman24]

Where's SteveB now? *cue DT*

As others have said, northern stream energy was much more pronounced and dug out the trough instead of it washing out as was the case (and ridiculous) on the 0z/6z GFS. Pretty encouraging run.

[Riptide]

12z QPF

[Midlo Snow Maker]

ukie not far from the gfs at 72

gfs color ukie lines

[Swiscaster]

GFS now falls in line with Euro and full phase idea, things are getting very interesting, very interesting indeed!

OK, this is a positive trend, but even with this amped solution, it can still stay off the coast (as the GFS and other models are depicting). The Euro could easily have a similar solution to its past few runs, but just have it be a 100 miles east and could leave a lot of areas out of the snow.

[Guest someguy]

at 108n hrs look at the 500 mb map

then the surface

IMO the Low is still waaaaaaaaay too far east given that the 500 Low closed and negative SHOULD be capturing it and pulling it back

[SerialDerecho]

OK, this is a positive trend, but even with this amped solution, it can still stay off the coast (as the GFS and other models are depicting). The Euro could easily have a similar solution to its past few runs, but just have it be a 100 miles east and could leave a lot of areas out of the snow.

Very true, however considering the Euro's consistency, and the GFS's MASSIVE shift towards the Euro, things are looking encouraging..

[Ian]

at 108n hrs look at the 500 mb map

then the surface

IMO the Low is still waaaaaaaaay too far east given that the 500 Low closed and negative SHOULD be capturing it and pulling it back

if you compare to the euro it looks about right tho

[A-L-E-X]

OK, this is a positive trend, but even with this amped solution, it can still stay off the coast (as the GFS and other models are depicting). The Euro could easily have a similar solution to its past few runs, but just have it be a 100 miles east and could leave a lot of areas out of the snow.

More of a likelihood of the GFS continuing to trend, since its made the major jump already so only a minor correction is needed and the upper air pattern seems to support it.

[nynjpaweather]

at 108n hrs look at the 500 mb map

then the surface

IMO the Low is still waaaaaaaaay too far east given that the 500 Low closed and negative SHOULD be capturing it and pulling it back

Excellent point and STRONGLY AGREE. Well, I'm convinced. Just have to iron out the details.

[ohleary]

Once again...let's all bow down to King Euro.....As I've been saying all along..I've learned the hard way that until prooven differently, trust the euro. At 00z, with a better sampaling of the energy I would expect a solution very similar to whatever today's 12z euro shows. Hopefully the euro maintains its excellent continuity.

Kind of early to declare victory 4 days out. The 12Z GFS solution could be a correct one with a slight east trend for the Euro, and mostly a miss. Yes the trend was towards the 00z Euro solution, but there is so much time for anything to happen with such a complex system. Honestly I'd have rather seen misses up to about 60 hours with the trend the Euro had the last few days inside of 60 hours. How many major noreasters have been accurately forecast 120+ hours out by any model? It's hard to fathom the Euro will show a monster storm for 9 more runs in a row. But...it may happen.

[Jefflaw77]

at 108n hrs look at the 500 mb map

then the surface

IMO the Low is still waaaaaaaaay too far east given that the 500 Low closed and negative SHOULD be capturing it and pulling it back

if that's the case, if you move the QPF output 150 miles west you have a Prolific blizzard on your hands for the I-95 region

[Midlo Snow Maker]

HOW ABOUT SOME CATCHUP MR.GFS

6z gfs vs 12z gfs yesterday i made this earlier before 12z

past 0z euro vs 0z euro night before

[LakeEffectKing]

It needs to move a hundred miles or so west to slam all of us. That is doable 100 hours out, for sure.

Yeah, seeing as it moved over that in 6 hours!!

[Tiburon]

Where's SteveB now? *cue DT*

As others have said, northern stream energy was much more pronounced and dug out the trough instead of it washing out as was the case (and ridiculous) on the 0z/6z GFS. Pretty encouraging run.

he's choo choosing not to hang out for the 12Z. That's a solid way to interpret it. Add in the GFS SE bias, shake well and sprinkle in the EURO and we've got ourselves a doozy.

at 108n hrs look at the 500 mb map

then the surface

IMO the Low is still waaaaaaaaay too far east given that the 500 Low closed and negative SHOULD be capturing it and pulling it back

My thoughts exactly Dave. Surface isn't matching up with the H5. Did I see Charlie poking his head around the corner?

[Midlo Snow Maker]

HOw far west do you think it needs to be DT? Also, would the precip shield likely be larger than what the GFS is depicting with a storm of this magnitude?

STORM MODE

people stop with posts like this

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

And the GFS almost always seems to be S and E of where it should be with these coastals at this timeframe. Therefore, you would think in theory, you would also expect to see the QPF to gradually increase as we get closer to the event.

[Radders]

at 108n hrs look at the 500 mb map

then the surface

IMO the Low is still waaaaaaaaay too far east given that the 500 Low closed and negative SHOULD be capturing it and pulling it back

Strongly agree here.. The GFS H5 at 108 is very close to the EURO at 120, but surface does look east.