LocoAko Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Much better at 90... closed contour over Michigan, northern stream energy racing southward, trough is more amplified - even if it doesn't "do it" this run, this is definitely very encouraging to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 If the southern stream energy maintained its strength on this run, we would probably be looking at a HECS similar to last night's Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 HR 102, 993 LOW 80 MILES EAST OF ILM...WAAAAAAAAAAY better than 00z or 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyS Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Stunning agreement with ECMWF now through hr 102. Only big difference is surface low, which is 100-150 miles east of ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 sub 996 12z sub 1008 6z hr 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Incoming.... H5 catches the low a bit too late for the south MA though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GETTING THERE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 this is very interesting. at 111, it looks like it's almost trying to retrograde towards the coast. It's quite a sight to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 6Z 12Z Huge change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 108 HR MONSTER LOW TOTOALLY DIFFERENT FROM LAST 8 RUNS OF THE GFS sure its east but its is stillm past 84 hrs and the CHANGE is what is significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 996 off Wilmington, NC at 102!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GETTING THERE It's there, per the 102 frame. Bombing low, neg tilt, phased. Just like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 12z just told the euro to make some room in the bed huge differences this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 basically, it's about 100 -200 miles from a HECS. It's an extremely powerful system being depicted by the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 A very close miss at Hour 114 as it moves NE but as others have said, it is much better. Snows still reach the NJ shore and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 THis is all I needed to see. Don't care that its not there..just the fact that it trended significantly toward the Euro. Can't wait for the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 you slow down the energy crashing into the PAC West and you likely have a track much closer to the coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This is outstanding, it looks like the H5 wants to completely cutoff. If the Euro holds, this event is probably a lock but we may experience minor changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS now falls in line with Euro and full phase idea, things are getting very interesting, very interesting indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS just blinked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 THis is all I needed to see. Don't care that its not there..just the fact that it trended significantly toward the Euro. Can't wait for the ensembles Looks similar to last nights GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The northern stream energy was a big difference.. you could tell, it was just much stronger... further south and west.. and digging much further down.. the energy allowed the whole pattern to amplify and tilt, close off and create a stronger system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 THis is all I needed to see. Don't care that its not there..just the fact that it trended significantly toward the Euro. Can't wait for the ensembles It needs to move a hundred miles or so west to slam all of us. That is doable 100 hours out, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Massive differences, folks. NAM, EURO, GFS potentially all on board. Tonight at 0Z could be the swing run, once the s/w gets on the coast. "Ladies and gentlemen, please, won't you bring your attention to me..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS just blinked. usually does NOT always usually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS just blinked. Just need everything to develop a bit further west, wether its a better phase or stronger northern stream.....very encouraging run nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 by the way.. the pressure of the center I think is 960 ish.. it's really hard to see.. it's very low.. anyone can see what it might be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The northern stream energy was a big difference.. you could tell, it was just much stronger... further south and west.. and digging much further down.. the energy allowed the whole pattern to amplify and tilt, close off and create a stronger system. Exactly, on the 6z the energy was weaker and didnt dig enough. Here the northern stream dug all the way down to the gulf and although the phase was weak, the resulting amplification of the H5 energy was enough to capture the low and bomb it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Like I said yesterday, the GFS and Euro have been playing a game of chicken. First model to blink "loses". Looks like it's the GFS, at least with this run. Let's see if tomorrows 0z and 12z GFS runs trend the same way. If it does, we're in the game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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