12Z Model Thread 12/22

[Midlo Snow Maker]

108 12Z EURO esn mean is way wets of the 0z euro ens mean and a MUCH closer match to the 12z euro operational run

WOW

so i guess we have more than 7 out of 51 members on board now

.

[Dcwx]

I think a little west might be even better for DC, not too much though...

[Guest someguy]

could we get more a shift west where the 195 cities from ric north will get a mix over?

no

[Gibbsfreeenergy]

108 12Z EURO esn mean is way wets of the 0z euro ens mean and a MUCH closer match to the 12z euro operational run

WOW

I am issuing a GibbsFree weenie chuck watch after the 12z op euro tomorrow. Chuck em high and chuck em far

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

its a pretty darn cold system which will be great for snow ratios/snow growth, unlike the big ones last year. 15:1, maybe 18:1 ?

it even gets to like -8C to RIC.

[SNO]

no

DT...how far West does precip field extend?

[weathafella]

When was the last time weenies from the south, mid atlantic, southern and even parts of northern new england got buried? HECS!

[donsutherland1]

FWIW, 12z ECMWF ensemble mean and operational model:

96 hours:

120 hours:

144 hours:

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

accu blunder latest screw up

http://www.accuweath...hifts-south.asp

as if they are JUST NOW getting a clue that this thing is gonna dig deep into the south.

[Ender]

FWIW, 12z ECMWF ensemble mean and operational model:

96 hours:

120 hours:

144 hours:

The ensemble mean is obviously still to the east of the OP. In fact when I overlay the 12Z ensemble mean on top of the 0Z mean and flip between the images it basically looks like the mean still follows the same path. Obviously a bit deeper.

If someone has access to the ensemble spaghetti that'd be sort'a interesting to hear about.

[Ender]

These two sets of images just don't seem very much "the same" to me...

96hr:

120hr:

[PhineasC]

The ensemble mean is obviously still to the east of the OP. In fact when I overlay the 12Z ensemble mean on top of the 0Z mean and flip between the images it basically looks like the mean still follows the same path. Obviously a bit deeper.

If someone has access to the ensemble spaghetti that'd be sort'a interesting to hear about.

For a smoothed mean over 100 hours out, it seems pretty bullish to me...

[Guest someguy]

you ARE 100% Misisng the point

the 0z euro ensem was well east of the op run

everyone saw that

the 12z euro ens mean is WEST of the 0z euro eman

what dont you get?

These two sets of images just don't seem very much "the same" to me...

96hr:

120hr:

[budl]

Dave,it will be awsome watching the iggles play in a blizzard

[donsutherland1]

For those who are interested in the Euro's qpf, here are select figures:

ABE: 1.25"

ACY: 2.11" (Some p-type issues)

ALB: 0.29"

BAF: 1.39"

BDL: 1.60"

BDR: 1.57"

BGR: 0.39"

BOS: 2.00" (Ideal dog walking weather)

BWI: 1.48"

CHO: 1.37"

CON: 0.84"

DCA: 1.55"

EWR: 1.59"

HPN: 1.50"

IAD: 1.45"

ILG: 1.66"

ISP: 1.77"

JFK: 1.71"

LGA: 1.62"

MDT: 1.05"

NYC: 1.60"

OKV: 1.11"

ORH: 1.70"

ORF: More than 0.33" as snow (p-type issues during heaviest precip.)

PHL: 1.63"

POU: 1.08"

PVD: 2.19"

PWM: 0.92"

RDU: 1.75"

RIC: 2.06"

SBY: 2.35" (P-type issues)

[budl]

what type of ratios are we lookin at?

[SnowGoose69]

With the ridge axis so far east out in the western U.S. how can this thing can hit anyone but the immediate coast....and even if the slightest thing does not go perfectly its a Virginia Capes/Delmarva and Cape storm.

[ArtRosen]

For those who are interested in the Euro's qpf, here are select figures:

ABE: 1.25"

ACY: 2.11" (Some p-type issues)

ALB: 0.29"

BAF: 1.39"

BDL: 1.60"

BDR: 1.57"

BGR: 0.39"

BOS: 2.00" (Ideal dog walking weather)

BWI: 1.48"

CHO: 1.37"

CON: 0.84"

DCA: 1.55"

EWR: 1.59"

HPN: 1.50"

IAD: 1.45"

ILG: 1.66"

ISP: 1.77"

JFK: 1.71"

LGA: 1.62"

MDT: 1.05"

NYC: 1.60"

OKV: 1.11"

ORH: 1.70"

ORF: More than 0.33" as snow (p-type issues during heaviest precip.)

PHL: 1.63"

POU: 1.08"

PVD: 2.19"

PWM: 0.92"

RDU: 1.75"

RIC: 2.06"

SBY: 2.35" (P-type issues)

with 10-1 ratios that's scary -- if the air is REALLY cold and you're looking at 15:1 ratios..... WOW just WOW. Who's going to see 3 feet of snow out of this?

[Ji]

i think with -11 850 temps..that would be 20:1 ratios so for IAD, we are talking 26.5 inches

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

i think with -11 850 temps..that would be 20:1 ratios so for IAD, we are talking 26.5 inches

math says 29inches.

but wats a measily 2.5in in a 1-3foot HECS?!?!?!?

[donsutherland1]

with 10-1 ratios that's scary -- if the air is REALLY cold and you're looking at 15:1 ratios..... WOW just WOW. Who's going to see 3 feet of snow out of this?

Of course, the big question remains whether the Euro will verify. I do believe a track close to that of the Euro ensemble mean still looks reasonable. Hopefully, the more potent operational Euro will be correct.

[Jebman]

with 10-1 ratios that's scary -- if the air is REALLY cold and you're looking at 15:1 ratios..... WOW just WOW. Who's going to see 3 feet of snow out of this?

Weathafella, for one.

Everybody from Savanna, GA clear up into the Canadien Maritimes had better buy a new snow shovel NOW. Better yet, buy TWO. Get those snowblowers tuned up. If the Euro verifies ZOMG amounts of snow are imminent from the Carolinas to Fort Kent and NE.

[Ender]

you ARE 100% Misisng the point

the 0z euro ensem was well east of the op run

everyone saw that

the 12z euro ens mean is WEST of the 0z euro eman

what dont you get?

Well, I only have two sets of images that I can use. I'd have preferred to have used to H5 map with the SFC isobar overlay, but those images lack the handy little red L that just makes this soooo much easier to convey. Here are those images:

While these are two different runs it would seem reasonable that the 0Z 1015mb low in the top frame would likely have taken a track similar to the one that resulted in the 1006mb low in the bottom frame. Similar, not the same...and probably not as deep.

Here are the next two, also separated by 12hr:

Now, it may be tough to tell by looking at the pictures, but if you use a browser that supports tabs (yeah, I remember your feelings about Firefox, but IE can do it too) and you load the first image in one tab and the second image in the next tab you can basically quickly switch between frames. The 0Z mean would have the 1001mb low at the longitude of the RI/CT border. The 12Z mean puts the, much deeper, low at slightly east of due north of that 0Z mean's position. Let's say due south of the Vinyard. Everyone loves the Vinyard....

So, with that information, what should I conclude? Well...what did my previous post say, "The ensemble mean is obviously still to the east of the OP. In fact when I overlay the 12Z ensemble mean on top of the 0Z mean and flip between the images it basically looks like the mean still follows the same path. Obviously a bit deeper."

Is the 12Z ECE mean west of the 0Z ECE mean? Obviously. Is it "well west" sure if you're delusional. Is the 12Z ECE mean still quite a bit east of the OP? IMO, it looks like it is.

The last two runs of the OP are pretty persuasive, and watching virtually all the global models pull to the left is pretty encouraging as well. But...the OP is showing something that's historic on the time scale of decades. The ECE mean would point to something that's historic on the timescale of a year or so. Which is why I ended the post with, "If someone has access to the ensemble spaghetti that'd be sort'a interesting to hear about."