12Z Model Thread 12/22

[goldstar]

Why does their have to be a compromise? The euro hasn't budged one bit to the GFS

Ji, while most of us usually applaud your enthusiasm, I get to wondering whether we should temper our expectations about a sub 970mb low off of DelMarva until there is additional support. I am highly optimistic about the upper air setup, and the 50/50 low, but the phasing has not been handled the same way across all the models. I also believe that until we get within 48hrs of the event, we won't know how strong the confluence will be from the departing low.

All of this is encouraging, but I still wonder whether the Euro is showing the most 'extreme' example, and since the most extreme example happens maybe once a decade, we should be mindful of that before we overreact.

[IsentropicLift]

Ji, while most of us usually applaud your enthusiasm, I get to wondering whether we should temper our expectations about a sub 970mb low off of DelMarva until there is additional support. I am highly optimistic about the upper air setup, and the 50/50 low, but the phasing has not been handled the same way across all the models. I also believe that until we get within 48hrs of the event, we won't know how strong the confluence will be from the departing low.

All of this is encouraging, but I still wonder whether the Euro is showing the most 'extreme' example, and since the most extreme example happens maybe once a decade, we should be mindful of that before we overreact.

I think you will find that by 12z tomorrow...and thats even being conservative...the Euro will have the full support of most of the other major global models. I would agree that the Euro solution seems extreme but one can not ignore the consistency or its track record. All hail to the model king.

[yoda]

HPC is updating their afternoon maps

Day 4 -- http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=4&fcolor=wbg (1004 L just offshore SE SC)

Day 5 -- http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=5&fcolor=wbg (980 L east of ACY)

[Ed Lizard]

Not sure of the units, knots or mph, but 12Z Euro shows 10 meter winds at 70 (mph or knots, either way, big) on the middle New Jersey shore at 6Z Monday, and six hours later, a gradient from 30 over NYC to 60 over the Twin Forks. When the 70 mph or knot winds are hitting coastal New Jersey, Philadelphia is between 30 and 40.

No units legend. But offshore, winds are over 75 at 10 meters, either knots or mph, hurricane force wind warnings would be justified in the far offshore waters if this verifies.

Edit to reply to below-

Zir0b

I'm using AccuWx PPV graphics 10 meters, isolated on the Northeast. 10 meter winds is what I have selected. I did this quite on purpose, seeing the 850 mb winds and wondering how that translated down to the near surface.

Edit 2- wind speeds drop off rapidly over land on the AccuWx 10 meter Euro guidance, another sign I'm seeing near surface winds.

[WhiteoutWX]

Dont know if it has been posted, but 12z Ukmet is west of 0z, and bombs the low in a similar fashion to the Euro. Still looks like a miss for most but a step in the right direction for sure.

[Zir0b]

Not sure of the units, knots or mph, but 12Z Euro shows 10 meter winds at 70 (mph or knots, either way, big) on the middle New Jersey shore at 6Z Monday, and six hours later, a gradient from 30 over NYC to 60 over the Twin Forks. When the 70 mph or knot winds are hitting coastal New Jersey, Philadelphia is between 30 and 40.

No units legend. But offshore, winds are over 75 at 10 meters, either knots or mph, hurricane force wind warnings would be justified in the far offshore waters if this verifies.

That is not 10M, that's at 850MB, and it's showing a LLJ streak of 75+ knots over NYC/NJ, which given the heavy precip falling at the same time, would mix down and cause major beach erosion on the Jersey shore as well as true blizzard conditions.

[dtk]

I think you will find that by 12z tomorrow...and thats even being conservative...the Euro will have the full support of most of the other major global models. I would agree that the Euro solution seems extreme but one can not ignore the consistency or its track record. All hail to the model king.

Please save stuff like this for post-storm analysis/verification. The Euro is STILL on the western extreme of the guidance (though is gaining additional support as has been noted). I'm actually really curious/anxious to see if the OP EC remains on the western extreme of their ensemble guidance....

[jm1220]

The Euro is suggesting 50-60 mph winds make it to the NJ shore and Long Island on 12z Mon, and 60-70 mph are just offshore, at the sfc. 850mb winds are well over hurricane force at the time. This would be a tremendously battering storm along the coast with likely serious flooding and beach erosion issues, in addition to the 1-2 foot snow amounts. Just an amazing storm if it comes to fruition.

[Confuzzled]

Dont know if it has been posted, but 12z Ukmet is west of 0z, and bombs the low in a similar fashion to the Euro. Still looks like a miss for most but a step in the right direction for sure.

True but the GGem took a step in the wrong direction today.

[Guest someguy]

Based on the 12z GFS run and the 12z euro run from today, is it fair to say that the solution may be somewhere between the two? Are we congratulating ourselves a little early?

Lets think about that

the Model that ahs held course for 4 runs in a row

should be compromised with the model that 6 hours ago had the Low over Bermuda

and has shifted dramatically towards the Euro?

Really?

[Guest someguy]

True but the GGem took a step in the wrong direction today.

Looka again dude

12z ggem is west of the 0z run

[CTWeatherFreak]

Lets think about that

the Model that ahs held course for 4 runs in a row

should be compromised with the model that 6 hours ago had the Low over Bermuda

and has shifted dramatically towards the Euro?

Really?

excellent point. I think alot of people havent gotten over the hiccup the euro presented on the last big miss when it alone gave weenies hope some 72 hrs out, only to double back on itself with the ots scenario.

[mitchnick]

part of the UKMet problem may be it has a double Low structure at the critical 96 hrs.

Anybody notice that?

I would think that will mess things up vs. a single low

since none of the models have the double Low structure, maybe next time if it looses the double Lows it will be further west

just a thought

[SACRUS]

120 UKMet

[beanskip]

Fixed! (First snow run for N.C. was the 0z Monday Euro. Six snow runs in a row, three of them HECS -- whens the last time a model showed a widespread southern snow for 6 straight runs before even getting within 72 hours of the event?!?!?!)

Lets think about that

the Model that ahs held course for 4 6 runs in a row

should be compromised with the model that 6 hours ago had the Low over Bermuda

and has shifted dramatically towards the Euro?

Really?

[SACRUS]

Looka again dude

12z ggem is west of the 0z run

Hard to say to me?

00z

12z

[bluewave]

Not sure why my post got deleted, but what is the lowest SLP the Euro takes this storm on the 12z run??

I didn't see the between hours,but Allan's maps have it down to 967 mb 12z Monday.

[Confuzzled]

Looka again dude

12z ggem is west of the 0z run

This is what I was looking at:

Not a huge shift by any means but it looks a little bit more east to me. Its also a little weaker, develops slower before playing catchup....

edited...sorry posted the image twice....

[dg12x]

Euro ensemble mean has shifted westward from 00z through hr 114.

[yoda]

Looks like the EURO ensembles are way west for a big hit...

[Terpeast]

part of the UKMet problem may be it has a double Low structure at the critical 96 hrs.

Anybody notice that?

I would think that will mess things up vs. a single low

since none of the models have the double Low structure, maybe next time if it looses the double Lows it will be further west

just a thought

Good thought, but I wouldn't be too concerned about that. I would interpret this as a general area of low pressure and put the L in the middle of it (not necessarily where the computer puts it)... especially when the storm is 4 days away.

[thegreatdr]

Nothing is necessary wrong with that surface solution. When the polar jet is way down in the Caribbean, cool air remains across the Florida peninsula, and one surface low will move through the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, hit the cool air impediment over the peninsula which will have somewhat higher pressure as the land will be cooler than the Loop Current or Gulf Stream, and a new development will form offshore the Southeast near the Gulf Stream. This sometimes happens when tropical cyclones are moving through the eastern Gulf of Mexico in autumn as well.

DR

part of the UKMet problem may be it has a double Low structure at the critical 96 hrs.

Anybody notice that?

I would think that will mess things up vs. a single low

since none of the models have the double Low structure, maybe next time if it looses the double Lows it will be further west

just a thought

[Siesta Key]

Looka again dude

12z ggem is west of the 0z run

Dave, I thought I read you were going to put out a first call mid-day today. What's the latest?

Cheers

[Guest someguy]

108 12Z EURO esn mean is way wets of the 0z euro ens mean and a MUCH closer match to the 12z euro operational run

WOW

[dtk]

Euro ensemble mean has shifted westward from 00z through hr 114.

Now THIS is a good sign!!

[yoda]

The Euro ops is no longer a borderline outlier at 12z. The ensemble mean would be pretty destructive.

[jlewis1111]

could we get more a shift west where the 195 cities from ric north will get a mix over?

[SNO]

Quick "thank you" for the insight on this potential storm...great stuff from the Pro's.

[clskinsfan]

Looks like the EURO ensembles are way west for a big hit...

Way west as in where? On the Coastal plain itself?

[Stormlover74]

I think they meant way west as in way west of where 0z was, not way west of the operational

Way west as in where? On the Coastal plain itself?