JMU2004 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 out to 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This run will go out to 00z SUN, which is Christmas Day evening. Hopefully, we should see where the NAM is leaning towards as we get out to 72-84 hrs even though it will be on the very end of its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Don't see that much of a difference so far between the 06z NAM and 12z NAM at h5 thorugh 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 big differences at hr 54 but by hr 60 only diference is, is the vort is not closed off, almost same location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 So far, it appears that the s/w is in the same location, but slightly weaker. The ATL low is a bit better defined on the 12z h5 at 48 12z NAM 6z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 12z NAM has a OPEN s/w in N TX/SW OK at 54 on h5... 06z NAM at 60 on h5 had it CLOSED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBRE Wx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 southern short a little weaker yes but also a little slower. northern short looks a smidge further west and southern end of ridge axis out west a little further west too. mainly "good" changes from my eyes... (note - comparing 12z to 00z - i ignore 6z nam) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 12z NAM has a OPEN s/w in N TX/SW OK at 54 on h5... 06z NAM at 60 on h5 had it CLOSED Going to be the dumb newbie again, but how does that impact the movement of the storm? (i.e. does it make it fall in line more with the GFS model or the Euro model) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 s/w still open... and a good amount open too. It looks nothing like the 06z NAM at h5 which was closed by now 12z NAM 6z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 12z NAM is in close to the same spot at 500, but much weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBRE Wx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 open now yes (compared to 6z) but taking on a bit more of a neutral tilt compared with 00z... ridge definitely farther west at 60 hours compared with last night's 72h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I hate seeing yoda post..not because he';s a terrible poster but because its usually bad news that he posts. Never fails. At any rate, compared to 0z, it looks about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 s/w still open... and a good amount open too. It looks nothing like the 06z NAM at h5 which was closed by now 12z NAM 6z NAM Not as different as it would appear. Was barely closed on the 06Z and is pretty much the same strength. The differences I'm seeing are just upstream and downstream. The Atlantic low is further west and the upstream ridge is ever so slightly less amplified. Could be a slowdown thing, but it may also be indicating a more progressive solution that would, again, wrap this puppy up too late and too far E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I hate seeing yoda post..not because he';s a terrible poster but because its usually bad news that he posts. Never fails. At any rate, compared to 0z, it looks about the same. I am only posting what I see. If you see better or that I am wrong, then let me know. I don't only post bad news. As you can see above, kpantz is letting me know how I am wrong somewhat Anywho, thats a pretty big ridge in the Western US at 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 NAM would bring it out to sea How do you ascertain that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBRE Wx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 missed the news this morning, what are you telling your viewers? Rick still going with a wait and see... have to. Trying to paint best chance of any significant snows in the Poconos with lesser chance further west, but pretty much saying we could get nothing or a lot... but odds leaning towards nothing at this point. I like how the ridge on the new NAM looks a bit further west, but that's about the only "good" news I see for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 at 78 Low is SW of New Orleans....looks slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 southern short a little weaker yes but also a little slower. northern short looks a smidge further west and southern end of ridge axis out west a little further west too. mainly "good" changes from my eyes... (note - comparing 12z to 00z - i ignore 6z nam) good post. lets compare to 0z nam, and not 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The thing I noticed is the pig is slower and maybe a bit stronger. I think that's good as its allowing the ridge to be a bit sharper and a little more west. You can see the energy dumping down in the plains at a little more sharper too.<BR><BR>(comparing to 0Z)<BR><BR>It just we need it to quickly get out of the way when the low forms in/near the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Nam, IMO, certainly looks better at 72 hours compared to 84 hours at 0z and 78 at 6z. How does that compare to the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Nam, IMO, certainly looks better at 72 hours compared to 84 hours at 0z and 78 at 6z. How does that compare to the Euro? Agree... it looks like it would phase better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 A little trend we've seen with the 6z gfs (yeah, I know-- off run) and both the 6z nam and 12z nam seems to be theyre slowing the system down and making it stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 quickly, the largest changes that I see between 12z and 0z... compare the jet streak orientation between 72hr 12z vs 84hr 0z....upstream of the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 at 84, we have the low SE of New Orleans. Precip breaking out in the South East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 at 78 th S/W is not that bad off of the 0z euro a little less diggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 NAM out to 84 and it doesn't look terrible, but it is not as sharp as the Euro at 96 with the height field orientation on the front side of the trough. The euro has a much sharper orientation with the H5 height fields running from SW - NE. However considering it is at 84 hours on the NAM, I don't think it really matters too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Let me ask this...how much have the NAM/GFS been missing the phase by compared to the Euro. Is it really that large of a difference? What I mean is, I know the GFS is hundreds of miles south and East of the EURO with its solution, but is there a point in the 72-90 HR time frame that is close to a phase on the GFS, but it just misses, and the Euro does phase, thus causing the radically different solution. Basically, I'm asking if the GFS and Euro are actually closer than meets the eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Nam, IMO, certainly looks better at 72 hours compared to 84 hours at 0z and 78 at 6z. How does that compare to the Euro? Comparing 96h Euro to 84h NAM, they're not all that far off. The downstream vortex is further west on the NAM, but the upstream ridge is similarly positioned. Similar sloppy phase look in the midwest at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Let me ask this...how much have the NAM/GFS been missing the phase by compared to the Euro. Is it really that large of a difference? What I mean is, I know the GFS is hundreds of miles south and East of the EURO with its solution, but is there a point in the 72-90 HR time frame that is close to a phase on the GFS, but it just misses, and the Euro does phase, thus causing the radically different solution. Basically, I'm asking if the GFS and Euro are actually closer than meets the eye? In real terms a few hundred miles/not much. To my eyes it's timing and biases. It's probably too early to do the type of comparison you are asking. The NAM looks better, I believe we are seeing a narrowing of the cone from the wide right NOGAPS to the wide left EC. Maybe what we are seeing is the cone narrowing on each side but what will be interesting to see is which side gets trimmed more. The NAM to me will have a monster low, with that much energy way up NW that's good, but at the same time we need to get the old system out of here first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBRE Wx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Comparing this morning's NAM to last night's GFS ridge out west is farther west but a little flatter I think. 2nd northern stream shortwave looks a little farther west too but also a little slower, which means later phase. Troubling thing for me is over the Atlantic. Storm is slower and stronger on NAM meaning less southeast ridge (which believe it or not we're rooting for this time around) and a more progressive look as kpantz noted a few posts back. Take the NAM out past 84 hours and it sure looks like she'd be heading out to sea.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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