NorthShoreWx Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 13 hours ago, Juliancolton said: Any idea why the soil temp would increase like that during a snowfall? I'm imagining something along the lines of latent heat release from melting and refreezing snow causing a feedback loop but that's probably way more complicated than the actual answer. Either way, most of my nearly 6" is already gone with swaths of bare grass opening up. I have one of the best radiating sites in the region and do pretty well in most snowstorms relative to surrounding towns, but living on a giant south-facing slope is the price I pay. Freezing releases heat, melting sucks it up. Otherwise you could heat your coffee by putting ice cubes in in it. My only guess for the ground warming explanation is that as it got covered with snow, is that the snow insulated the surface enough for slightly warmer soil just below it to warm the surface soil. That assumes the soil temp probe isn't that deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said: My only guess for the ground warming explanation is that as it got covered with snow, is that the snow insulated the surface enough for slightly warmer soil just below it to warm the surface soil. That assumes the soil temp probe isn't that deep. That's my guess as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 That said, the soil temps around me are pretty much the same that they were last week before the snowfall and there's snow on the ground now. So the snow can certainly insulate the ground from the cold now which could keep the temps steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 On the train into the city and the amount of leftover snow increases steadily as you head west from wantagh. So there was definitly less snow in eastern Nassau. Even though numbers weren’t that dissimilar a good portion of the snow in eastern Nassau fell durning the final band when ratios were highest and thus melt the fastest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: On the train into the city and the amount of leftover snow increases steadily as you head west from wantagh. So there was definitly less snow in eastern Nassau. Even though numbers weren’t that dissimilar a good portion of the snow in eastern Nassau fell durning the final band when ratios were highest and thus melt the fastest I think the delayed start from earlier guidance allowed the main band to set up a little further west than the forecasts on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: On the train into the city and the amount of leftover snow increases steadily as you head west from wantagh. So there was definitly less snow in eastern Nassau. Even though numbers weren’t that dissimilar a good portion of the snow in eastern Nassau fell durning the final band when ratios were highest and thus melt the fastest For part of the afternoon rates became so light that we were actually losing snow since it was above freezing. Like you said, the ratios got better later at night and there was a clear difference in the consistency. I could see the difference in the layers when I was cleaning my car off. It was almost like it was two different snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 4 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: That's my guess as well. The bright side is that the deeper soil is loosing heat to the surface soil...and snowmelt will carry off that heat from the surface. You'll have frozen pipes in no time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 I was checking January 2011 daily obs and saw that the local climate data for the 25th-27th storm...It has 16.0" for the total storm and 32.0" for the month... https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-71F44E11-2461-44C7-813E-7D6A85A6F00B.pdf NYC local climate sight still has Jan 2011 with 36.0" of snow... http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf was the storm re analized and not noaa's sight?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 11 hours ago, bluewave said: I am going to call it the great blocking shift of 2013. Dominant NH high latitude blocking switched from the NAO region to the EPO area. Something around the beginning of 2013 caused most of the extreme blocking to shift over to the NE PAC from the NATL. The interesting thing is how this occurred on a dime. It's like a switch got turned on (or off) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: On the train into the city and the amount of leftover snow increases steadily as you head west from wantagh. So there was definitly less snow in eastern Nassau. Even though numbers weren’t that dissimilar a good portion of the snow in eastern Nassau fell durning the final band when ratios were highest and thus melt the fastest Where did you find the most fell? You took the train from Lynbrook? I take that one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 7 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: That said, the soil temps around me are pretty much the same that they were last week before the snowfall and there's snow on the ground now. So the snow can certainly insulate the ground from the cold now which could keep the temps steady. Yes that's why the eskimos were smart and built igloos I actually feel warmer when it's snowing vs when it's raining and cold. And dry and cold is the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 23 hours ago, Juliancolton said: Any idea why the soil temp would increase like that during a snowfall? I'm imagining something along the lines of latent heat release from melting and refreezing snow causing a feedback loop but that's probably way more complicated than the actual answer. Either way, most of my nearly 6" is already gone with swaths of bare grass opening up. I have one of the best radiating sites in the region and do pretty well in most snowstorms relative to surrounding towns, but living on a giant south-facing slope is the price I pay. See below 9 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: Freezing releases heat, melting sucks it up. Otherwise you could heat your coffee by putting ice cubes in in it. My only guess for the ground warming explanation is that as it got covered with snow, is that the snow insulated the surface enough for slightly warmer soil just below it to warm the surface soil. That assumes the soil temp probe isn't that deep. Yup as you go down the soil is quite a bit warmer. 4 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: The bright side is that the deeper soil is loosing heat to the surface soil...and snowmelt will carry off that heat from the surface. Ding ding you got it. The lower layers were transferring their heat upwards and subsequently cooling. One of the local mesonet stations the 10" depth is down 5 degrees and the 20" is down 8 or 9 degrees from yesterday morning and the 2" temp has stayed steady since it topped out yesterday afternoon. The other local station the 10" is down a few degrees but the 20" temp is insanely warm, warmer than it was 2 days ago actually which I can't explain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 hour ago, Paragon said: Where did you find the most fell? You took the train from Lynbrook? I take that one too. Ha! Wantagh, hence heading west from Wantagh... just messing with you. The most snow was at my destination 120th and Broadway. However there was noticeably more snow from about central queens on. Hopefully this isn’t a sign of things to come this winter for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Sneaky snow shots remain on gfs, the upcoming clipper looks a bit more energetic as does the late bloomer Fri/Sat. If the western ridging held on a bit longer we probably could've had a nice storm. We want the NAO to be positive for that one, this is one case where SE ridging helps us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Ha! Wantagh, hence heading west from Wantagh... just messing with you. The most snow was at my destination 120th and Broadway. However there was noticeably more snow from about central queens on. Hopefully this isn’t a sign of things to come this winter for us It still was a lot better than Dec 9, 2005. Remember that horror show? 6 inches in Central Park, 3 inches at LGA, zippo from JFK east (for both the north and south shore!) On top of all that, SNE had one of their most dynamic storms of all time, right down to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Stratosphere warming is happening. This bodes well for -NAO January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 First it was bitcoin now it' litecoin I'm getting rich here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 12/12: Miami dropped below 50 degrees for the first time since January 24th of 2016! This morning the low temperature at MIA was 48 degrees. That is 687 days, the longest streak ever recorded! #FLwx 4:12 AM - 12 Dec 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 10 hours ago, Paragon said: It still was a lot better than Dec 9, 2005. Remember that horror show? 6 inches in Central Park, 3 inches at LGA, zippo from JFK east (for both the north and south shore!) On top of all that, SNE had one of their most dynamic storms of all time, right down to the coast. Unfortunilty i remember that one well. My ex gf was living on the Ues at the time and I remember taking the train in and seeing the snow from mid Queens on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 All snowcover gone here, run up to 51F and a shot of moderate rain took care of what was left this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, Snowshack said: All snowcover gone here, run up to 51F and a shot of moderate rain took care of what was left this morning. The record low temperatures that we saw on November 11-12 were timed well with the higher snowcover. We have seen a big reversal with very low values for December 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Ultimate banter but CMC has a decent little snow saturday, NAM is literally identical at the surface at 84. Talk about a long shot lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 50 minutes ago, Snowshack said: All snowcover gone here, run up to 51F and a shot of moderate rain took care of what was left this morning. Gone here too. What was left disappeared overnight. GFS is ugly in the long range. No more snow, bunch of rain storms through Christmas. Mid section of the country gets a lot of snow and ice though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Gone here too. What was left disappeared overnight. GFS is ugly in the long range. No more snow, bunch of rain storms through Christmas. Mid section of the country gets a lot of snow and ice though Yeah it looks pretty ugly. Troughs keep crashing into the west coast, very Nina esque. Plus you have a +AO/NAO and -PNA forming, so this won't be some 2-3 day relaxation pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah it looks pretty ugly. Troughs keep crashing into the west coast, very Nina esque. Plus you have a +AO/NAO and -PNA forming, so this won't be some 2-3 day relaxation pattern. How is the long range a lock? The models have been all over the place. We could just as easily see a reversal again. i don’t get the modelogy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: How is the long range a lock? The models have been all over the place. We could just as easily see a reversal again. i don’t get the modelogy Thanks. Am I missing something? Weren't we just talking about being cold through Christmas? I guess this is where we get in trouble for hugging the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, North and West said: Thanks. Am I missing something? Weren't we just talking about being cold through Christmas? I guess this is where we get in trouble for hugging the models. No we start moderating this weekend and go back to normal/above by next week. After that who knows, and I certainly don't trust anything more than 7-10 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: No we start moderating this weekend and go back to normal/above by next week. After that who knows, and I certainly don't trust anything more than 7-10 days out Cool, thanks. You walk away for a day and everything goes bonkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Anyone else just feel a minor earthquake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Anyone else just feel a minor earthquake? No but I do think that clipper will bust high here with a very nice dusting possible 1-2 inches in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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