bluewave Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 January 4th was officially our 24th KU storm of the 2010's so far. The period between the 09-10 and 17-18 snow seasons saw many more top 60 events than any other similar period going back to the 1950's. Even though the snowfall maps are poor as usual, it did rank as a Cat 1. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 21 hours ago, EasternLI said: Yeah, the Jan fish bomb blizzard was a lot of fun tracking and watching play out. If it wasn't moving at light speed it would have given the biggest ones here a run for their money. It was still very impressive regardless. The great thing about that storm was the extent of the heavy snowfall. Even back here in SW Nassau we saw 14-16 inches of snow and a foot of snow all the way to Brooklyn and 10 inches to Manhattan. Also had true bonafide blizzard conditions and a white out for most of the day. Cant ask for any thing more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Paragon said: The great thing about that storm was the extent of the heavy snowfall. Even back here in SW Nassau we saw 14-16 inches of snow and a foot of snow all the way to Brooklyn and 10 inches to Manhattan. Also had true bonafide blizzard conditions and a white out for most of the day. Cant ask for any thing more than that. That is true, the hefty totals spread out like that instead of in more localized bands like we normally see. The winds were really impressive to me as well, it was downright frightening here for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, EasternLI said: That is true, the hefty totals spread out like that instead of in more localized bands like we normally see. The winds were really impressive to me as well, it was downright frightening here for a time. I think if we had blocking it would have been like March 1960 with the totals spread out across the coastal plain. That was another very intense snowstorm, but its highest totals were over Nantucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, Paragon said: I think if we had blocking it would have been like March 1960 with the totals spread out across the coastal plain. That was another very intense snowstorm, but its highest totals were over Nantucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Lots and lots of budding, early blooming, and even some leaves popping out in DC. A nice preview of what’s to come our way in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 As we often discuss here, the run we've had since 2000 in terms of big snows has been great. Can someone please refresh my memory as to whether, for LI, especially Nassau, any of those big snows since 2000 has occurred in March? Seems like for one reason or another the March storms rarely pan out for this area ( obviously just west of LI cashed in last March.) 2001 was one such disappointment (which I know still dumped 15+ in some spots in ELI); I think 1989 was another, which clipped A/C and Montauk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: As we often discuss here, the run we've had since 2000 in terms of big snows has been great. Can someone please refresh my memory as to whether, for LI, especially Nassau, any of those big snows since 2000 has occurred in March? Seems like for one reason or another the March storms rarely pan out for this area ( obviously just west of LI cashed in last March.) 2001 was one such disappointment (which I know still dumped 15+ in some spots in ELI); I think 1989 was another, which clipped A/C and Montauk. 2009? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 2009? Thanks - I forgot that one (and scarily it still doesn't ring a bell even as I'm reading about it now.) So many big storms the last 18 years that I'm losing track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Thanks - I forgot that one (and scarily it still doesn't ring a bell even as I'm reading about it now.) So many big storms the last 18 years that I'm losing track. I got skunked with only 5" but I know the coast did well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 No surprise here. The 500 mb heights in February were the highest on record (70 years) from Texas through the Northeast and in the North Pacific Ocean; and the lowest on record in Central Canada. [compared to other Februaries] @AlaskaWx #MegaRidge #MegaTrough #R1pic.twitter.com/YBRdvW022t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Why can't people let a model run play out, at least a few frames? What's the rush to post so soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Why can't people let a model run play out, at least a few frames? What's the rush to post so soon? The same reasoning behind having to declare victory about a forecast, the same reasoning to bash other instead of discussing the weather, the same reason to play the reverse psychology bs when discussing snow.... my guess is childhood trauma...concussions? Bad breakup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, BxEngine said: The same reasoning behind having to declare victory about a forecast, the same reasoning to bash other instead of discussing the weather, the same reason to play the reverse psychology bs when discussing snow.... my guess is childhood trauma...concussions? Bad breakup? I remember reading an article years ago in Maxim (is that still around?) that said you'll learn more in life with a bad boss and a bad breakup than you'll ever learn in school. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 There was a poster last year, I think something like...Superstorm93. Dude was money. I think he was going to school for meteorology. Does he still post here? Anyone have any insight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, ForestHillWx said: There was a poster last year, I think something like...Superstorm93. Dude was money. I think he was going to school for meteorology. Does he still post here? Anyone have any insight? One of my favorite members. Always had valuable information. Haven’t seen him this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/3/2018 at 6:43 PM, bluewave said: January 4th was officially our 24th KU storm of the 2010's so far. The period between the 09-10 and 17-18 snow seasons saw many more top 60 events than any other similar period going back to the 1950's. Even though the snowfall maps are poor as usual, it did rank as a Cat 1. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis The maps are definitely poor, but equally puzzling if the rating of the Jan 21, 1978 storm in the northeast as "crippling" while the February blizzard is well behind that onlhy "major". The former had more impact further south in the apps (assuming the map is correct) , but otherwise, must be some statistical abnormality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: The maps are definitely poor, but equally puzzling if the rating of the Jan 21, 1978 storm in the northeast as "crippling" while the February blizzard is well behind that onlhy "major". The former had more impact further south in the apps (assuming the map is correct) , but otherwise, must be some statistical abnormality. It almost looks like they reversed the dates by mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said: There was a poster last year, I think something like...Superstorm93. Dude was money. I think he was going to school for meteorology. Does he still post here? Anyone have any insight? Talked to him today. He's doing well. I'll let him know he's missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Sometimes I get lazy and check the storm / disco threads to see what the latest model runs are doing. Checking them myself saves a lot of agita reading through posts that don't make any sense (only I won't know that they don't make any sense if I haven't checked on my own). It would be like two people looking at the same painting and seeing something different, except this is math, not art. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 31 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Sometimes I get lazy and check the storm / disco threads to see what the latest model runs are doing. Checking them myself saves a lot of agita reading through posts that don't make any sense (only I won't know that they don't make any sense if I haven't checked on my own). It would be like two people looking at the same painting and seeing something different, except this is math, not art. Yeah same here...I read some posts then check the models myself and wonder, what the hell are they talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 People talking about rates on precip maps...Lol Someone is going to get crushed. I like Union county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said: People talking about rates on precip maps...Lol Someone is going to get crushed. I like Union county Not sure why you keep harping on that as if it's totally outlandish. Some of the QPF graphics are displayed in precip rates rather than accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 If this storm delivers, Rjay needs to create all winter storm threads from now on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said: Sometimes I get lazy and check the storm / disco threads to see what the latest model runs are doing. Checking them myself saves a lot of agita reading through posts that don't make any sense (only I won't know that they don't make any sense if I haven't checked on my own). It would be like two people looking at the same painting and seeing something different, except this is math, not art. 31 minutes ago, doncat said: Yeah same here...I read some posts then check the models myself and wonder, what the hell are they talking about. So help them out a little. It won't hurt and only elevate the disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Mophstymeo said: If this storm delivers, Rjay needs to create all winher storm threads from now on. It's going to crush someone. Area tbd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 23 minutes ago, Rjay said: It's going to crush someone. Area tbd It was more a comment about your seemingly good snow magnetism than who is going to get clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 12 minutes ago, Rjay said: So help them out a little. It won't hurt and only elevate the disco. Except the off the mark posts are usually stale by the time I get done checking models for myself. Unfortunately, I can interpret model output fairly well, but not so good at figuring out what's wrong with it. But I will help when I can. I already do if I think I actually know something useful. Didn't mean to be controversial in the first post. I have literally checked into a thread a couple of hours after a model run (and I have a bad habit of starting to read a few pages back), then progress chronologically through the full roller coaster from the rumor mill, bad analysis, poor attempts to forecast what the model is going to forecast as the output rolls on, to hopefully in the end something resembling the truth. Just like in a novel. I guess that's why they call it entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 11 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Except the off the mark posts are usually stale by the time I get done checking models for myself. Unfortunately, I can interpret model output fairly well, but not so good at figuring out what's wrong with it. But I will help when I can. I already do if I think I actually know something useful. Didn't mean to be controversial in the first post. I have literally checked into a thread a couple of hours after a model run (and I have a bad habit of starting to read a few pages back), then progress chronologically through the full roller coaster from the rumor mill, bad analysis, poor attempts to forecast what the model is going to forecast as the output rolls on, to hopefully in the end something resembling the truth. Just like in a novel. I guess that's why they call it entertainment. I completely understand and thank you. And your second paragraph is spot on haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 13 minutes ago, NYCGreg said: Fine. Then use the Kuchera maps for the NYC area and the 10:1 maps for your area. Both maps may have some use in a snowstorm like this. It may not be a one size fits all. Thanks but I am pretty sure I live in the NYC area, after all I can see the skyline from my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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