Winter 2017-18 banter thread

[Cobalt]

31 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Their terrible run of luck continues. Watch them get crushed with the coming block

We're still paying for 2009-10

[Juliancolton]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

tampa tied its all time feb record of 88 today. the ridge means business 

Really makes its presence known on the global scale. By tomorrow night the highest 500mb heights on the planet should be just off the Carolina coast.

31 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

+1 now we need victory poetry.

[CIK62]

Was listening to the Tampa station WFLA on iHEART radio this morning, and the prediction was for 84 today, with a record of 86 for the date.    Normal high is 73 or so.

I am starting to think that the Cold Air will be 'Returned To Sender' for insufficient PNA. lol   All I see Week 1 of March is normal temps. at best.

 

[Cobalt]

On 2/18/2018 at 9:51 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Another 14” true blizzard and this winter becomes very memorable. Already at 29.6” on a 28” average 

You folks on Long Island have had quite the golden age of snow this decade. I'm pretty sure I saw on twitter that someone on Long Island has had 6 consecutive above normal years for snowfall (counting this year). Is this true?

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

year after year this happens. if i were a cold/snow lover i'd be pretty depressed 

We should all be depressed. Reminds me of a famous Twilight episode. Scared the heck out of me when I was a kid. 

[psv88]

53 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

You folks on Long Island have had quite the golden age of snow this decade. I'm pretty sure I saw on twitter that someone on Long Island has had 6 consecutive above normal years for snowfall (counting this year). Is this true?

Yea since 2012 it’s been above normal every year. Hard to know what the new normal is at this point.

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Was listening to the Tampa station WFLA on iHEART radio this morning, and the prediction was for 84 today, with a record of 86 for the date.    Normal high is 73 or so.

I am starting to think that the Cold Air will be 'Returned To Sender' for insufficient PNA. lol   All I see Week 1 of March is normal temps. at best.

 

Highs will probably be in the 40s with much colder air aloft (it will be March after all), but if a storm is strong enough and takes the right track then it should easily snow. 

It'd be nice if the upcoming pattern was around in mid February, but early March is not too late yet. In fact some of those systems the Gfs is showing to our north should start trending south as the blocking builds next week. 

[Cobalt]

45 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea since 2012 it’s been above normal every year. Hard to know what the new normal is at this point.

That's pretty crazy. We hopped on the above normal train for 3 years (13/14-15/16), and then we turned back to reality. I wonder how long you guys can keep it up (and how much this raises the average). I'm guessing you folks have a ton of fond memories from this near half decade of snowiness. Enjoy it!

[psv88]

Just now, Cobalt said:

That's pretty crazy. We hopped on the above normal train for 3 years (13/14-15/16), and then we turned back to reality. I wonder how long you guys can keep it up (and how much this raises the average). I'm guessing you folks have a ton of fond memories from this near half decade of snowiness. Enjoy it!

Yea really goes back to 2002/2003, a solid 15 years of above normal snows, although 2006 to 2008 were mediocre, and of course 2011/2012. I’m losing track of all the monster storms. We have had so many blizzards last decade it’s absurd, Boxing Day, Nemo, Juno, Grayson, Jan 2011, Jan 2016, December 2009...I’m sure I’m missing some. I’ve lived in this house three winters and each winter we’ve had a legit blizzard. It’s astounding.

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Yea really goes back to 2002/2003, a solid 15 years of above normal snows, although 2006 to 2008 were mediocre, and of course 2011/2012. I’m losing track of all the monster storms. We have had so many blizzards last decade it’s absurd, Boxing Day, Nemo, Juno, Grayson, Jan 2011, Jan 2016, December 2009...I’m sure I’m missing some. I’ve lived in this house three winters and each winter we’ve had a legit blizzard. It’s astounding.

That's nuts. With a little bit of luck, we would've had at a couple more memorable years. Missed out on a couple. We have had great winters though, and great storms too. Blizzard of 2003, 2006, 2009, the 2 2010 blizzards, the late Jan 2011 storm (one of my favorites), Feb 2014 storm, and most recently the Jan 2016 blizzard. We just have gotten screwed by Nina winters without -NAOs. Last winter sucked (but was almost an acceptable winter with both the early Jan storm and the mid March storm missing big hits by less than 150 miles). 2012/13 was almost saved in March, but we had one of our biggest storm busts in history, and 2010/2011 could've been a big winter if the Boxing Day storm was 100 miles or more West. Basically we've had a decent bit of bad luck. Honestly, I can't complain though. We've had some great years. 2009/10 and 2013/14 were historic, Feb 2015 had one of our greatest cold and snowy stretches in recent memory (-8 February departure + 20+ inches of snow in less than a month from over 5 storms), and the 2016 blizzard. 

[Rjay]

3 hours ago, CIK62 said:

 

I am starting to think that the Cold Air will be 'Returned To Sender' for insufficient PNA. lol   All I see Week 1 of March is normal temps. at best.

 

You're right about the upcoming pattern likely not being super cold but you're completely missing the big picture.  

[bluewave]

The Euro says it's time to book that European ski vacation that you keep putting off.

 

 

[NJwx85]

Kansas City, MO is currently 31 degrees under heavy freezing rain, ice storm warning.

Jefferson City, MO is currently 69 degrees with thunderstorms in the area. 

A 38 degree temperature difference over 150 miles.

[Brian5671]

15 hours ago, forkyfork said:

year after year this happens. if i were a cold/snow lover i'd be pretty depressed 

LOL-we've had ridiculous snows around here going back to 2000.  No one is depressed

[DaveTinNY]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Euro says it's time to book that European ski vacation that you keep putting off.

 

 

Even the mountains of Greece are getting in on the snow.  There really are places to ski there.  

[NJwx85]

34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

LOL-we've had ridiculous snows around here going back to 2000.  No one is depressed

You have to admit that Central NJ and Long Island posters have been very spoiled lately though with well above average snowfall. 

It's not normal for ISP to consistently get more snow than SWF.

[Brian5671]

20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

You have to admit that Central NJ and Long Island posters have been very spoiled lately though with well above average snowfall. 

It's not normal for ISP to consistently get more snow than SWF.

Alot of this has coincided with a ++AMO.  Will be curious to see what happens when it flips negative.

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Kansas City, MO is currently 31 degrees under heavy freezing rain, ice storm warning.

Jefferson City, MO is currently 69 degrees with thunderstorms in the area. 

A 38 degree temperature difference over 150 miles.

The temp graphs are falling of a cliff out there once the front moves through, and shooting up in western PA.

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

You have to admit that Central NJ and Long Island posters have been very spoiled lately though with well above average snowfall. 

It's not normal for ISP to consistently get more snow than SWF.

Monmouth and Ocean maybe, not the rest of us

[NJwx85]

26 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Monmouth and Ocean maybe, not the rest of us

I don't consider Plainfield Central NJ. To me the dividing line is the Driscoll Bridge, and Southern NJ begins just South of Toms River where the Parkway used to go down to 2 lines.

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

The temp graphs are falling of a cliff out there once the front moves through, and shooting up in western PA.

Yup, actually down to 29 degrees and currently reporting light snow in KC and Jefferson City is down to 42 degrees. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

You have to admit that Central NJ and Long Island posters have been very spoiled lately though with well above average snowfall. 

It's not normal for ISP to consistently get more snow than SWF.

From 1980 to 1993, with the exception of the blizzard of '83, a 6"+ snowfall on LI was a rarity.   The turning point, just coincidentally I suppose, was the 1993 storm of the century, which was snow to rain like the 14 years before it, but since that time it's been a different story here, albeit with a large standard deviation.

[NJwx85]

8 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

From 1980 to 1993, with the exception of the blizzard of '83, a 6"+ snowfall on LI was a rarity.   The turning point, just coincidentally I suppose, was the 1993 storm of the century, which was snow to rain like the 14 years before it, but since that time it's been a different story here, albeit with a large standard deviation.

I don't wish to restart an argument as to whether or not this "new normal" is in fact a new normal or if we're going to ultimately see a correction back to long term climo, however it seems in general that this uptick in snowfall is more a product of storm track itself vs lack of cold air. In other words, the pattern has actually been a bit suppressed overall, probably in part to the large amount of blocking which has taken place prior to this year. 

[Stormlover74]

12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I don't consider Plainfield Central NJ. To me the dividing line is the Driscoll Bridge, and Southern NJ begins just South of Toms River where the Parkway used to go down to 2 lines.

That's fine but Mercer/Middlesex haven't really cashed in like further south and east or LI

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

That's fine but Mercer/Middlesex haven't really cashed in like further south and east or LI

That's because like I was saying, the mean pattern has been suppression with many storms hammering Southern NJ and Long Island and fringing areas North of Rt 78.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

I don't wish to restart an argument as to whether or not this "new normal" is in fact a new normal or if we're going to ultimately see a correction back to long term climo, however it seems in general that this uptick in snowfall is more a product of storm track itself vs lack of cold air. In other words, the pattern has actually been a bit suppressed overall, probably in part to the large amount of blocking which has taken place prior to this year. 

Very true. To add to that extremely warm offshore water temps may also be leading to a more bench mark track 

[forkyfork]

i feel like as the waters continue to warm the good LI tracks will become good NJ tracks

[bluewave]

https://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/press_release/pr2016/scispot/ss1601/

 

A new study by NOAA researchers suggests future warming of ocean waters off the Northeastern U.S. may be greater and occur at an even faster rate than previously projected.

Their findings, based on output from four global climate models of varying ocean and atmospheric resolution, indicate that ocean temperature in the U.S. Northeast Shelf is projected to warm twice as fast as previously projected and almost three times faster than the global average. The models were developed at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, New Jersey.

“We looked at four GFDL models and compared their output to ocean observations in the region. The highest resolution GFDL model, CM2.6, matched the Northwest Atlantic circulation and water mass distribution most accurately,” said Vincent Saba, a NOAA fisheries scientist and lead author of the study. “Prior climate change projections for the region may be far too conservative.”

Over the past ten years, the Gulf of Maine has warmed faster than 99% of the global ocean.  Recent studies indicate that the enhanced warming is associated with a northerly shift in the Gulf Stream. Changes in the distribution and species composition are already evident, but existing climate change projections are based on warming scenarios from coarse resolution models.  Warming of 3 to 4 degrees C (as much as 5.4 to 7.2 degrees F), projected by NOAA GFDL’s CM2.6, will likely cause more extreme effects on the ecosystem.

[IrishRob17]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

https://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/press_release/pr2016/scispot/ss1601/

 

A new study by NOAA researchers suggests future warming of ocean waters off the Northeastern U.S. may be greater and occur at an even faster rate than previously projected.

Their findings, based on output from four global climate models of varying ocean and atmospheric resolution, indicate that ocean temperature in the U.S. Northeast Shelf is projected to warm twice as fast as previously projected and almost three times faster than the global average. The models were developed at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, New Jersey.

“We looked at four GFDL models and compared their output to ocean observations in the region. The highest resolution GFDL model, CM2.6, matched the Northwest Atlantic circulation and water mass distribution most accurately,” said Vincent Saba, a NOAA fisheries scientist and lead author of the study. “Prior climate change projections for the region may be far too conservative.”

Over the past ten years, the Gulf of Maine has warmed faster than 99% of the global ocean.  Recent studies indicate that the enhanced warming is associated with a northerly shift in the Gulf Stream. Changes in the distribution and species composition are already evident, but existing climate change projections are based on warming scenarios from coarse resolution models.  Warming of 3 to 4 degrees C (as much as 5.4 to 7.2 degrees F), projected by NOAA GFDL’s CM2.6, will likely cause more extreme effects on the ecosystem.

Very interesting post.  I wonder what effect the increased salinity in the top layer will have since it will be more dense.

[CIK62]

Meanwhile if you missed it, the JMA Seasonal Projection was issued last week and shows   BN temps.,  BN precip.,  BN  coastal water surface temps. along the EC this Spring.

More immediately, the NAEFS has this for us.   But just as temps drop,(after the 26th) the precip. dries up too, though some members go pop around the Mar. 05.   Not show here.