Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: given the westerly winds being modeled the jackpot zone should be right over nyc/nj need full sun.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 After the 2nd coldest first week of January around the area behind 1918, Newark just set a new record of 6 days of 60 or greater 1/10-2/15. Each new season brings a combo of previously unseen extremes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: if trends continue today i'm going to have to raise numbers across the board Include a custom map with pretty colors for illustrative purposes. Please and thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: After the 2nd coldest first week of January around the area behind 1918, Newark just set a new record of 6 days of 60 or greater 1/10-2/15. Each new season brings a combo of previously unseen extremes. Exactly, and it’s fine with me if we still score storms like 1/4. Let’s see what March brings. I have a feeling the far interior is in for a wild ride Something like March 11 where the high elevations of the Catskills had 40” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 14 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Exactly, and it’s fine with me if we still score storms like 1/4. Let’s see what March brings. I have a feeling the far interior is in for a wild ride Something like March 11 where the high elevations of the Catskills had 40” yeah some of those spring elevation blue bombs are crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 5 hours ago, bluewave said: Could be the first on record if conformed. In any event, another example of out of season severe with this anomalous winter warmth. Damage being reported in Uniontown, PA. The cause of the damage is still unknown. However, if ruled a tornado it will be the first tornado recorded in the month of February in the Pittsburgh region #PAwx #tornado Pictures from@CalUofPA student @s_Hayducko pic.twitter.com/hUX8DSI20Y 6:36 PM - 15 Feb 2018 Confirmed EF1 tornado in Uniontown occurred last night with winds up to 105 mph. 1st recorded tornado in NWS Pittsburgh area of responsibility during February since 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 hours ago, bluewave said: After the 2nd coldest first week of January around the area behind 1918, Newark just set a new record of 6 days of 60 or greater 1/10-2/15. Each new season brings a combo of previously unseen extremes. Exactly. We've been seeing multiple extremes occur more and more, especially in the 2010's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 51 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Confirmed EF1 tornado in Uniontown occurred last night with winds up to 105 mph. 1st recorded tornado in NWS Pittsburgh area of responsibility during February since 1950. 3rd February in a row for PA that produced tornadoes. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20170225 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20160224 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I don't mind being wrong Some here have picked up on that i think. Just breaking chops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I was supposed to drive out to RI tonight to meet up with some photogs for our inaugural 2018 Milky Way shoot, but it looks like high clouds are streaming in faster than anticipated. Bollocks to that. I'll need to decide in the next few minutes whether it's worth taking a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Who woke me up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 And it keeps trending stronger and stronger, somebody will be seeing 80+ on Wednesday. Everything will depend on cloud cover and wind direction though. I'm confident about widespread mid 70s with several upper 70s as well. +25 or better departures likely Tue-Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr461 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 The vitriol that results if someone says anything even mildly negative about snow is hysterical! One would think the discussion was initiated with a personal attack on one's family! It's just weather and it's just snow. Wow! This is all just interpretation of various computer feedback yet if someone interprets a model and suggests less snow than some others....string 'em up! Unfortunately I can count on one hand those who would engage in a thoughtful debate on such events while most of the rest just go into attack mode. I have been around since the NE Weather days and you can see almost no posting. It's a wonder we have as many mets as we still do given the defensiveness and bitterness that comes through if there is any disagreement on a snow forecast! No one knows what will happen for sure and we are always surprised and amazed by what the atmosphere conjures up. it's also possible not to like or want certain weather but still be in awe of it. Personally, I have had enough snow and cold in my life yet still get that feeling I had when I was a kid (I'm 56) when a significant snowstorm approaches, to track and observe. But then life happens again and we have to drive and work and get places and deal with the aftermath. But to each his own. Despite the technology there is still so much that is unpredictable particularly in the longer term and even in the short term for many events. A civilized discussion on such things would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Can't wait to be socked in with low clouds from Tuesday through Friday like that Euro run has over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: The extremes just keep coming. Current 30-day-averaged Madden-Julian oscillation amplitude is at its highest 30-day average since early March to early April 1997. Strong sub-seasonal tropical variability at present. @carl_schreck @EricBlake12pic.twitter.com/vfGNX2G9vC 7:42 AM - 16 Feb 2018 from Walnut Creek, CA I apologize in advance, but could you please explain what that likely portends for NYC metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 11 hours ago, Juliancolton said: I was supposed to drive out to RI tonight to meet up with some photogs for our inaugural 2018 Milky Way shoot, but it looks like high clouds are streaming in faster than anticipated. Bollocks to that. I'll need to decide in the next few minutes whether it's worth taking a chance. I'm going to say no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 3 hours ago, EasternLI said: Can't wait to be socked in with low clouds from Tuesday through Friday like that Euro run has over here. That's what happens when you practically live in the middle of the ocean. It's beautiful out there during the Summer, but awful in the Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Whatever happened to poster "Allsnow" ? He was a big winter fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Just now, doncat said: Whatever happened to poster "Allsnow" ? He was a big winter fan. Yeah he was a good poster around here come the Winter, been wondering about him as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 3 hours ago, NJwx85 said: That's what happens when you practically live in the middle of the ocean. It's beautiful out there during the Summer, but awful in the Spring. Truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 hour ago, doncat said: Whatever happened to poster "Allsnow" ? He was a big winter fan. 1 hour ago, JerseyWx said: Yeah he was a good poster around here come the Winter, been wondering about him as well. He's around and doing well. Talked to him today. He's ready for some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 46 minutes ago, Rjay said: Truth This chart say it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 The 500mb heights in Northern Florida now, are where we will be for 48 hours, during Mon.-Wed. Up 300m. Odds less than 50/50 that first 10 days of March come in BN overall. Really, it will be mid-month for a high probability bet on BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 7 hours ago, bluewave said: The near to record warmth that we have been experiencing. It will be interesting to see if this is a transition back to El Nino or another fake out like last spring. Thank you for explaining. In south Florida now. Gorgeous weather. Upset I’m missing the snow tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The 500mb heights in Northern Florida now, are where we will be for 48 hours, during Mon.-Wed. Up 300m. Odds less than 50/50 that first 10 days of March come in BN overall. Really, it will be mid-month for a high probability bet on BN. Ok so we’ll just completely discount the near record -5 West based NAO then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 13 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Ok so we’ll just completely discount the near record -5 West based NAO then. If we have a crappy airmass then yes. But I dont think that will be the case. Something will prob be brewing the first week of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 22 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Thank you for explaining. In south Florida now. Gorgeous weather. Upset I’m missing the snow tho You picked a good time for a Florida vacation with one of their warmest Februaries so far. Even had some dense fog this morning under the inversion up toward the central and north parts of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 19 minutes ago, Rjay said: Something will prob be brewing the first week of March. I agree with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Rjay just informed me he is on his way to my house, just hexxed the sh*t outta the northern burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Picked up some fuel for the snowblower. Guaranteed rain here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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