Winter 2017-18 banter thread

[Snowshack]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Part of the Adirondacks are an awful snow location for latitude and elevation. You can kind of throw White Face in there. It averages almost half what Jay and Stowe average. The SW Adirondacks near Snowy Mountain are probably the snowiest location on the East Coast. But also the most isolated and thus no one knows for sure what the average is.  

Agreed.  Worst of is it along the Hudson and it gets better the further north and west you go.  Our place is a little too far east for consistent lake effect.  Wish I had thought it through better 20 years ago.  100” average is still ok though.      

 

[WeathermanB]

Tropical Tidbits is the best bird food company out there.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

Agreed.  Worst of is it along the Hudson and it gets better the further north and west you go.  Our place is a little too far east for consistent lake effect.  Wish I had thought it through better 20 years ago.  100” average is still ok though.      

 

Yeah I think I would be ok with 100”. But it would be much cooler to get 100” In a single lake effect + upslope event!!!!

[the_other_guy]

Just drove up to Lake Placid. There was no consistent snow cover until Exit 24 on the Northway. (Bolton Landing) 

This is not what a cold/snow winter in the Northeast looks like.

Unless something transpires in next couple of weeks, it is time to change the narrative on this winter.

Right now its looking like 2 weeks of extreme cold surrounded by “what could have been.”

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

Just drove up to Lake Placid. There was no consistent snow cover until Exit 24 on the Northway. (Bolton Landing) 

This is not what a cold/snow winter in the Northeast looks like.

Unless something transpires in next couple of weeks, it is time to change the narrative on this winter.

Right now its looking like 2 weeks of extreme cold surrounded by “what could have been.”

 

Low elevation. Meanwhile at 1600’ in southern Vermont. 

 

 

[Snowshack]

2 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Just drove up to Lake Placid. There was no consistent snow cover until Exit 24 on the Northway. (Bolton Landing) 

This is not what a cold/snow winter in the Northeast looks like.

Unless something transpires in next couple of weeks, it is time to change the narrative on this winter.

Right now its looking like 2 weeks of extreme cold surrounded by “what could have been.”

 

Our place is off Northway exit 25.  Its pretty common to see bare ground up to Bolton Landing.  Continuing north the elevation starts to really tick up, and if you head west you quickly reap the benefits of lake effect.  

[BxEngine]

10 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

Our place is off Northway exit 25.  Its pretty common to see bare ground up to Bolton Landing.  Continuing north the elevation starts to really tick up, and if you head west you quickly reap the benefits of lake effect.  

Yep there have been plenty of winters ive seen bare ground in jan and feb from albany up past lake george. Its certainly not uncommon.

[the_other_guy]

Lake Placid has a lot of snow. But that isnt unusual; even on off winters. Keene had more snow than I thought they would have given their lower elevation

[the_other_guy]

30 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Yep there have been plenty of winters ive seen bare ground in jan and feb from albany up past lake george. Its certainly not uncommon.

It is not uncommon at all. Especially after 2 weeks of warmer temps and relatively little snow in the Albany area this season.

[snywx]

What's ALB ytd snowfall ? I would guess <20"

[EasternLI]

Looks like ALB is sitting at 24.9" for the season.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

6 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Looks like ALB is sitting at 24.9" for the season.

I wouldn’t call what they have been in a rut. More like a disaster the last decade. Extend that down to the southwest to State College. I’m ahead of them in wantagh with 26.7” less then a mile from the bay at 7’ elevation. I would think we have beaten them more times then not on the the island the last 10 years 

[EasternLI]

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I wouldn’t call what they have been in a rut. More like a disaster the last decade. Extend that down to the southwest to State College. I’m ahead of them in wantagh with 26.7” less then a mile from the bay at 7’ elevation. I would think we have beaten them more times then not on the the island the last 10 years 

Agreed. Disaster in that zone for some time now. 29.5" over here, so they're behind both of us. Never thought I'd see the day when I was younger.

[Syrmax]

4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I wouldn’t call what they have been in a rut. More like a disaster the last decade. Extend that down to the southwest to State College. I’m ahead of them in wantagh with 26.7” less then a mile from the bay at 7’ elevation. I would think we have beaten them more times then not on the the island the last 10 years 

I'd agree with that assessment. I lived just N of Albany for 3 years in early 00's and we had 2 good winters and one dud (00-01 was a disaster for snow in entire eastern US). Since then...very meh winter snowfalls at best.  The I-88 corridor from ALY to BGM and then on SW to State College PA was traditionally a jackpot zone for seemingly the bulk of east coast events when I was younger....1960s to 90s.  Living in southern CT for almost 2 decades, seemed like you couldn't buy a decent snowstorm most winters, other than 1995-96.  Seeing the i-95 corridor and LI jackpot and Blizzard repeatedly in the past decade is truly bizzaro world, from my perspective.  I wouldn't ascribe anything to it though, other than perhaps some sort of mean reversion.

[Rtd208]

Unless something changes. lol

[EasternLI]

 

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

 

Our patterns have become so extreme now that the models have to play catch up in the short term. I wish we could see the chart below extended back to August when this latest phase of the 2010's extremes began.

 

How volatile were temperatures in January 2018? Places with a red dot on the map had the greatest January temperature swings of any January on record as measured by daily temp standard deviation. [note: station data-not threaded] H/T @mattlanzacc:@jacquesmainguy @EricBlake12 pic.twitter.com/qZEjIOXcsz

View photo ·

 

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

 

Forecast accuracy drops off considerably after 5 days without model volatility - in addition its amazing how many posters are throwing in the towel on this winter and its only Feb 4 because of what they are seeing on models that have trouble getting things right for the most part past day 3 in many cases.

[uncle W]

as of today NYC has 46 days with a minimum 32 or lower...last year had only 49 and 2015-16 had 46...we had 17 consecutive at one point during late Dec into Jan...yesterday was the 21st day with a max 32 or lower this season...there was that two week period with 14 days in a row with a 32 or lower max...with 24 days to go in this month I think there could be 10-15 more days with a min 32 or lower...March could have 10-15 also...April 1 or two...total 65-80...80 days is a good number these days...Max days could see around 5 more adding up to 26 for the season...26 is more than average...

year.........Oct...Nov...Dec...Jan.....Feb....Mar....Apr...tot.con. max/consecutive

2017-18......0.......4.....16.....22.....04.....00.......0.....46...17.....21...14 as of 2/4/18

2016-17......0.......0.....11.....12.....12.....14.......0.....49.....8.....11.....3

2015-16......0.......1.......0.....21.....14.......7.......3.....46.....9.....10.....4

2014-15......0.......7.......9.....25.....28.....16.......1.....86...38.....26.....5

2013-14......0.......9.....19.....24.....21.....19.......1.....93...16.....33.....7

2012-13......0.......3.......8.....18.....17.....14.......0.....60...11.....15.....6

2011-12......0.......0.....10.....13.....10.......4.......0.....37.....5.......6.....2

2010-11......0.......0.....25.....28.....19.....11.......0.....83...18.....22.....4

 

2009-10......0.......0.....17.....22.....22.......2.......0.....63...23.....17.....3

2008-09......0.......6.....19.....30.....20.....11.......0.....86...26.....22.....3

2007-08......0.......3.....14.....20.....18.......7.......0.....62...14.......6.....2

2006-07......0.......0.......6.....18.....24.....11.......4.....63...36.....18.....6

2005-06......0.......5.....20.....10.....18.....14.......0.....67...14.......9.....2

2004-05......0.......5.....15.....17.....20.....14.......0.....71...29.....18.....9

2003-04......0.......1.....17.....26.....21.....10.......3.....78...20.....26.....9

2002-03......0.......3.....18.....28.....21.....13.......3.....86...22.....31...12

2001-02......0.......0.......9.....11.....15.......9.......3.....47...12.......3.....2

2000-01......0.......6.....29.....23.....18.....13.......0.....89...22.....20...13

 

1999-00......0.......1.....10.....22.....18.......4.......1.....56...28.....18.....7

1998-99......0.......0.......8.....20.....13.....11.......0.....52...18.....13.....3

1997-98......0.......8.....10.....13.......9.......9.......0.....49.....4.......3.....2

1996-97......0.......8.......7.....25.....14.....12.......3.....69...14.....11.....3

1995-96......0.......8.....24.....24.....18.....15.......0.....89...15.....30.....9

1994-95......0.......3.....10.....19.....20.......5.......3.....60...14.....11.....5

1993-94......0.......3.....15.....29.....24.....13.......0.....84...26.....31.....5

1992-93......0.......5.....13.....21.....27.....14.......0.....80...22.......7.....3

1991-92......0.......2.....15.....19.....15.....16.......1.....68...14.......9.....2

1990-91......0.......2.....11.....20.....14.......6.......1.....54.....8.......7.....1

 

1989-90......0.......9.....31.....10.....15.......9.......0.....74...33.....19.....9

1988-89......1.......1.....19.....16.....21.....13.......0.....71...11.....19.....3

1987-88......0.......5.......9.....24.....23.....11.......0.....72...16.....19.....7

1986-87......0.......6.....10.....23.....23.....11.......1.....74...19.....11.....5

1985-86......0.......0.....23.....21.....21.......9.......0.....74...12.....19.....4

1984-85......0.......5.......6.....28.....18.....10.......2.....69...35.....18.....5

1983-84......0.......1.....17.....26.....10.....13.......0.....67...19.....29.....8

1982-83......0.......4.....10.....18.....14.......7.......0.....53...12.....13.....4

1981-82......0.......2.....15.....26.....20.......9.......5.....77...24.....20.....6

1980-81......0.......2.....24.....27.....14.....12.......0.....79...24.....30...11

 

1979-80......0.......1.....12.....22.....24.....10.......1.....70...31.....19.....5

1978-79......0.......3.....15.....20.....21.......8.......1.....68...22.....26...11

1977-78......0.......4.....15.....27.....27.....13.......1.....87...22.....42...12

1976-77......2.....11.....25.....31.....17.......7.......3.....96...51.....45.....9

1975-76......1.......0.....21.....30.....14.......8.......2.....76...26.....20.....3

1974-75......3.......7.....12.....16.....16.....15.......6.....75...17.......8.....2

1973-74......0.......2.....16.....20.....24.....12.......2.....76...15.....23.....3

1972-73......1.......7.......9.....17.....21.......3.......0.....57.....9.....13.....4

1971-72......0.......5.....12.....18.....23.....16.......4.....78...11.....17.....5

1970-71......0.......4.....21.....29.....12.....12.......0.....78...16.....25.....5

 

1969-70......2.......5.....24.....30.....21.....14.......1.....97...45.....27.....6

1968-69......0.......1.....22.....22.....21.....15.......1.....82...27.....18.....3

1967-68......0.......9.....14.....24.....26.....13.......1.....87...27.....22.....9

1966-67......0.......2.....22.....19.....25.....16.......3.....86...15.....25.....6

1965-66......1.......3.....10.....22.....21.....10.......0.....67...17.....14.....2

1964-65......0.......4.....18.....28.....19.......9.......1.....79...27.....22.....5

1963-64......0.......0.....22.....16.....25.......9.......3.....75...22.....18.....7

1962-63......0.......4.....22.....23.....25.......8.......0.....82...21.....29.....7

1961-62......0.......5.....20.....24.....22.......7.......0.....78...16.....16.....4

1960-61......0.......3.....26.....27.....14.......8.......0.....78...26.....27...16

 

1959-60......0.......6.....12.....24.....20.....26.......0.....88...20.....15.....3

1958-59......0.......3.....28.....24.....21.....17.......0.....93...23.....26...10

1957-58......0.......3.......9.....21.....22.......3.......1.....59...17.....20...12

1956-57......0.......7.....12.....26.....19.......9.......0.....73...12.....12.....6

1955-56......0.......8.....26.....25.....16.....17.......0.....92...19.....23.....4

1954-55......0.......1.....17.....28.....17.....14.......0.....77...33.....16.....4

1953-54......0.......1.......9.....26.....10.....13.......3.....62...16.....15.....4

1952-53......0.......2.....12.....19.....16.......9.......0.....58.....8.......2.....1

1951-52......0.....11.....19.....20.....19.....14.......0.....83...19.....13.....3

1950-51......0.......3.....19.....19.....17.......9.......0.....67...18.....12.....3

 

1949-50......0.......5.....16.....12.....21.....21.......8.....83...18.....12.....3

1948-49......0.......0.....14.....17.....16.....15.......0.....62.....9.......9.....4

1947-48......0.......4.....25.....29.....24.....13.......1.....96...26.....33...10

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Forecast accuracy drops off considerably after 5 days without model volatility - in addition its amazing how many posters are throwing in the towel on this winter and its only Feb 4 because of what they are seeing on models that have trouble getting things right for the most part past day 3 in many cases.

When it comes to the long range, one must always respect uncertainty. A pattern that was not even on the guidance can seemingly come out of nowhere. Right now, there remains abnormally large differences among the guidance.

[Snowshack]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

When it comes to the long range, one must always respect uncertainty. A pattern that was not even on the guidance can seemingly come out of nowhere. Right now, there remains abnormally large differences among the guidance.

That’s why the best contributors to this forum, like yourself, offer commentary on upcoming patterns using words like may, possibly, likely, could, should etc.    It is a nice style contrast to those here and elsewhere that write as if they control future patterns.  

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Forecast accuracy drops off considerably after 5 days without model volatility - in addition its amazing how many posters are throwing in the towel on this winter and its only Feb 4 because of what they are seeing on models that have trouble getting things right for the most part past day 3 in many cases.

This particular forum has a big problem with model hugging. I have posted about at length. At this point I have given up and just roll my eyes and scroll through. This winter is far from over.....

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Would I get banned if I went into the NE thread and posted a little Let’s go Eagle lmao

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

38 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Would I get banned if I went into the NE thread and posted a little Let’s go Eagle lmao

Don’t do it!! Your way to valuable here!!

[Stormlover74]

52 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Would I get banned if I went into the NE thread and posted a little Let’s go Eagle lmao

They're already freakin' out

[Rtd208]

1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Would I get banned if I went into the NE thread and posted a little Let’s go Eagle lmao

I posted an Eagles logo in the Patriots thread and a Patriots logo in the Eagles thread with a nice little message, mods deleted them. lol

[weatherpruf]

19 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I posted an Eagles logo in the Patriots thread and a Patriots logo in the Eagles thread with a nice little message, mods deleted them. lol

Well, i've been trying to watch the game, but I don't have a dog in the fight and really can't get excited about football. I do like soccer and am heartbroken the US choked and won't be in this summer's WC ( they weren't going to go far in it anyway; seems like since we have more players earning more professionally the national team is getting worse ) and can respect the skill involved in the NFL, but man watching the hits some of these guys take I gotta wonder how much longer this kind of thing can go on, knowing what we know now....not sure how they can correct that and keep the game interesting.

[WeatherFeen2000]

23 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Well, i've been trying to watch the game, but I don't have a dog in the fight and really can't get excited about football. I do like soccer and am heartbroken the US choked and won't be in this summer's WC ( they weren't going to go far in it anyway; seems like since we have more players earning more professionally the national team is getting worse ) and can respect the skill involved in the NFL, but man watching the hits some of these guys take I gotta wonder how much longer this kind of thing can go on, knowing what we know now....not sure how they can correct that and keep the game interesting.

Agree with this. Although I like the Superbowl picking the eagles from the start but new England always comes back in the second half just not this year. This sport should be illegal. Also, Justin Timberlake is lame!

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Agree with this. Although I like the Superbowl picking the eagles from the start but new England always comes back in the second half just not this year. This sport should be illegal. Also, Justin Timberlake is lame!

Never underestimate the favorite. Then again, the US men had a 93% chance to make the World Cup when they went into the game against Trinidad....of course Mexico and Costa Rica choking in their games didn't help ( how convenient ). I kinda expect the Patriots to come back though.

[Bigfoot]

10 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Agree with this. Although I like the Superbowl picking the eagles from the start but new England always comes back in the second half just not this year. This sport should be illegal. Also, Justin Timberlake is lame!

Agree,worst halftime entertainment in my 50 yrs of watching!