Winter 2017-18 banter thread

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Dammit, slow this thing down. I need to get some yardwork done Sat morning. 

Lawn guys here are furiously cleaning up leaves-the rains Tuesday got alot of them down-but a late fall to an early winter...and this snowcover might not be in a hurry to go anywheere

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

I don't think it's a coincidence we've been seeing this since the early 2000s, I think the models are playing catch up with the new climate's norms.

Back in the 80s storms like these would be well offshore, hence the hike in snowfall totals in recent years.

 

It’s definitly not a coincidence. I’m glad I held on to the first coating for the regoin. At least I didn’t throw in the towel. Modelology strikes again!!

[nzucker]

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

Don't you think 2014-15 was better though?

In terms of cold, sure, but the snowfall was not nearly as prodigious in 14-15. Also, narrowly missing a blizzard that was progged as one of the biggest in history on 1/26/15 really annoyed me. I was forecast to receive 24-36" in Southern Westchester and ended up with 6.5". MAJOR BUST, left a bad taste. 

The intensity and longevity of the cold in February 2015 was unparalleled however; it may be hard to see that cold of a month in our lifetimes. That was up there with Dec 1989, Jan 1977, and Feb 1934.

[Paragon]

3 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

I liked 13-14 a little better.  14-15 was way too cold for me.  Honestly, I enjoyed 15-16 just because of the blizzard lol.  That made the whole Winter for me.

My favorite snowstorm of all time, although what a schizo winter with how warm December was.  February/March were a bit frustrating in that we did get teased quite a bit but didn't get hit directly after the big storm in January.

[Paragon]

1 hour ago, nzucker said:

In terms of cold, sure, but the snowfall was not nearly as prodigious in 14-15. Also, narrowly missing a blizzard that was progged as one of the biggest in history on 1/26/15 really annoyed me. I was forecast to receive 24-36" in Southern Westchester and ended up with 6.5". MAJOR BUST, left a bad taste. 

The intensity and longevity of the cold in February 2015 was unparalleled however; it may be hard to see that cold of a month in our lifetimes. That was up there with Dec 1989, Jan 1977, and Feb 1934.

I remember that the Euro in particular busted bigtime, wasn't it forecasting something like 40" of snow a few days before the event?  Funny we got the big one the very next year on the same date (or close to it.)

 

February 2015 is what I remember most about that winter, for one whole month it felt like being in the arctic, and we even had freezing drizzle on a sea breeze- when do you ever see that? lol.  The water temp was 31-32!  Two months I would add to your list would be Jan 1994, and Jan 2004.  Feb 2015 was more like Jan 2004 because of the high snowfall amounts and neither month got to below zero but both were consistently cold.

 

 

 

[Paragon]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s definitly not a coincidence. I’m glad I held on to the first coating for the regoin. At least I didn’t throw in the towel. Modelology strikes again!!

I'd love to see a few snowstorms in a row with little or no melting in between, that would make this very 2010-11ish!

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

31 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I'd love to see a few snowstorms in a row with little or no melting in between, that would make this very 2010-11ish!

 

That was solid. I was living in Long Beach at the time and we melted out there way before the rest of the island. 

The great thing is this time we have a chance to do it in December 

[nzucker]

37 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I remember that the Euro in particular busted bigtime, wasn't it forecasting something like 40" of snow a few days before the event?  Funny we got the big one the very next year on the same date (or close to it.)

February 2015 is what I remember most about that winter, for one whole month it felt like being in the arctic, and we even had freezing drizzle on a sea breeze- when do you ever see that? lol.  The water temp was 31-32!  Two months I would add to your list would be Jan 1994, and Jan 2004.  Feb 2015 was more like Jan 2004 because of the high snowfall amounts and neither month got to below zero but both were consistently cold.

Yeah the Euro busted huge on the 1/26/15 event...all of the big totals ended up being east. I can't believe they shut down the roads for 6" of snow, what a colossal bust.

I barely remember Jan 94 but Jan 04 was a great month...the super clipper and ice cold. NYC didn't get below zero, but we did in Westchester, I believe. Had a few clippers that month, actually.

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That was solid. I was living in Long Beach at the time and we melted out there way before the rest of the island. 

The great thing is this time we have a chance to do it in December 

Yes, having a Winter 10-11 pattern starting just a BIT earlier would be ideal. It's really nice to take advantage of the low sun angle in December in order to build snowpack. The problem is our coldest climo is so far removed from the lowest sun angle that this is often hard to do; average highs are still like 48F in early December, which makes it hard to have a consistently snowy and cold pattern. The huge -EPO ridge this month may allow it to happen, however. Lots of potential. If this one goes our way, it should stay on the ground until our next event, which looks to be the following weekend.

[CTSkywarn]

You have to love back in the days when there was no internet or public access to any of the models, or smart phones. Remember when the “weather radio” was really the only source of information? I used to listen to it for hours just waiting for the forecasts updates or the tones to come on with the watches/warnings. Now it’s info overload and instant access to the model runs. Then IRC came out....and #weather. I used to talk to Ryan back then when he was still going to school to be a meteorologist. Those were fun times....


.

[Paragon]

55 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Yeah the Euro busted huge on the 1/26/15 event...all of the big totals ended up being east. I can't believe they shut down the roads for 6" of snow, what a colossal bust.

I barely remember Jan 94 but Jan 04 was a great month...the super clipper and ice cold. NYC didn't get below zero, but we did in Westchester, I believe. Had a few clippers that month, actually.

Yes, having a Winter 10-11 pattern starting just a BIT earlier would be ideal. It's really nice to take advantage of the low sun angle in December in order to build snowpack. The problem is our coldest climo is so far removed from the lowest sun angle that this is often hard to do; average highs are still like 48F in early December, which makes it hard to have a consistently snowy and cold pattern. The huge -EPO ridge this month may allow it to happen, however. Lots of potential. If this one goes our way, it should stay on the ground until our next event, which looks to be the following weekend.

I just don't want the pattern to go to suckage in January and February.  If it wants to after mid February I'm fine with that, but late January- mid February is prime snow weather for us.

[Vice-Regent]

1 hour ago, CTSkywarn said:

You have to love back in the days when there was no internet or public access to any of the models, or smart phones. Remember when the “weather radio” was really the only source of information? I used to listen to it for hours just waiting for the forecasts updates or the tones to come on with the watches/warnings. Now it’s info overload and instant access to the model runs. Then IRC came out....and #weather. I used to talk to Ryan back then when he was still going to school to be a meteorologist. Those were fun times....


.

Nostalgia is a powerful force. I appreciate the wealth of information available nowadays. By all metrics, the hobby has been greatly enhanced since then.

[BxEngine]

Knocking people for spiking the football when it was spiked a week ago is probably not a good long term strategy. 

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, CTSkywarn said:

You have to love back in the days when there was no internet or public access to any of the models, or smart phones. Remember when the “weather radio” was really the only source of information? I used to listen to it for hours just waiting for the forecasts updates or the tones to come on with the watches/warnings. Now it’s info overload and instant access to the model runs. Then IRC came out....and #weather. I used to talk to Ryan back then when he was still going to school to be a meteorologist. Those were fun times....


.

I can remember waiting at the Alden difax for the latest weather maps to print out back in the 1980's. Inferior models and graphics were the best that the technology of the day could produce. It was pretty common for winter storms to be nowcasted rather than forecasted. Winter storm warnings often resulted snow changing to rain faster or an OTS track with the moon visible through a thin layer of cirrus. It was the few positive busts like 01-20-78 and 1-23-87 where snow occurred instead of rain that were the exceptions rather than the rule.

[Brian5671]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I can remember waiting at the Alden difax for the latest weather maps to print out back in the 1980's. Inferior models and graphics were the best that the technology of the day could produce. It was pretty common for winter storms to be nowcasted rather than forecasted. Winter storm warnings often resulted snow changing to rain faster or an OTS track with the moon visible through a thin layer of cirrus. It was the few positive busts like 01-20-78 and 1-23-87 where snow occurred instead of rain that were the exceptions rather than the rule.

That was the worst...you just knew we were doomed despite what the guy on TV was barking about....

[bluewave]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

That was the worst...you just knew we were doomed despite what the guy on TV was barking about....

One of those OTS solutions actually happened when I was vacationing in Miami Beach. We thought that our flight would be delayed when we heard that winter storm warnings were in effect for NYC. We hit some minor turbulence as we flew over the storm east of Hatteras. But it was just cloudy when we landed at JFK. So that was the only miss to the south that I enjoyed back in that era.

[Rjay]

Lol. Look how annoying this is. 

Look at the image stamp even though it says Friday everywhere else

[BxEngine]

Prob operator error

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

One of those OTS solutions actually happened when I was vacationing in Miami Beach. We thought that our flight would be delayed when we heard that winter storm warnings were in effect for NYC. We hit some minor turbulence as we flew over the storm east of Hatteras. But it was just cloudy when we landed at JFK. So that was the only miss to the south that I enjoyed back in that era.

Living outside of PHL and DC I always remember a bunch of storms that were supposed to be snow or snow changing to rain, simply start as rain...one they started as rain, that was that.

[IrishRob17]

You know what else is annoying?  Whining.

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Living outside of PHL and DC I always remember a bunch of storms that were supposed to be snow or snow changing to rain, simply start as rain...one they started as rain, that was that.

The 1970's and 1980's favored the interior to a large extent over the coast. We have seen a dramatic reversal during the 2000's where the coast does better with snowfall. Only a handful of occasions back then stayed all or mostly snow here. And those were our most memorable events.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 1970's and 1980's favored the interior to a large extent over the coast. We have seen a dramatic reversal during the 2000's where the coast does better with snowfall. Only a handful of occasions back then stayed all or mostly snow here. And those were our most memorable events.

Agree-I remember Allentown and Scranton getting the goods year after year while we rained.  

[BxEngine]

Cant wait for the bust posts early tmrw morning when the northwestern extent struggles initially.

[IrishRob17]

4 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Cant wait for the bust posts early tmrw morning when the northwestern extent struggles initially.

Tomorrow morning...you think it'll take that long?  Mods should plan for an all nighter, you better get a case of Mt. Dew

[Stormlover74]

49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I can remember waiting at the Alden difax for the latest weather maps to print out back in the 1980's. Inferior models and graphics were the best that the technology of the day could produce. It was pretty common for winter storms to be nowcasted rather than forecasted. Winter storm warnings often resulted snow changing to rain faster or an OTS track with the moon visible through a thin layer of cirrus. It was the few positive busts like 01-20-78 and 1-23-87 where snow occurred instead of rain that were the exceptions rather than the rule.

I still don't recall 1-22-87 being a rain forecast. in NE NJ we were expecting 8 to 12 and I got almost a foot before we mixed with sleet. And LI got over a foot in spots.

Jan. 22, 1987 - A daytime snowstorm dumped 8.1" of snow on the City while much of Long Island picked up a foot or more.  (Virginia, DC, Maryland, Delaware and South Jersey bore the brunt of the storm.)  The City's accumulation was held down when sleet mixed in.  This was NYC's biggest snowfall in four years and would be the biggest until the March 1993 Superstorm. 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I still don't recall 1-22-87 being a rain forecast. in NE NJ we were expecting 8 to 12 and I got almost a foot before we mixed with sleet. And LI got over a foot in spots.

Jan. 22, 1987 - A daytime snowstorm dumped 8.1" of snow on the City while much of Long Island picked up a foot or more.  (Virginia, DC, Maryland, Delaware and South Jersey bore the brunt of the storm.)  The City's accumulation was held down when sleet mixed in.  This was NYC's biggest snowfall in four years and would be the biggest until the March 1993 Superstorm. 

incredible storm in the western burbs of PHL-thundersnow to boot.  Forecast was for 8-12 and I simply did not believe it at the time after so many failures prior.  Ended with about a foot of wind whipped powder.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

incredible storm in the western burbs of PHL-thundersnow to boot.  Forecast was for 8-12 and I simply did not believe it at the time after so many failures prior.  Ended with about a foot of wind whipped powder.

Yeah I remember walking to school with the ground being bare and we got out at 3 and there was at least 10" on the ground by that point. Incredibly heavy for the duration even though it only last around 8 hours

[bluewave]

43 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I still don't recall 1-22-87 being a rain forecast. in NE NJ we were expecting 8 to 12 and I got almost a foot before we mixed with sleet. And LI got over a foot in spots.

Jan. 22, 1987 - A daytime snowstorm dumped 8.1" of snow on the City while much of Long Island picked up a foot or more.  (Virginia, DC, Maryland, Delaware and South Jersey bore the brunt of the storm.)  The City's accumulation was held down when sleet mixed in.  This was NYC's biggest snowfall in four years and would be the biggest until the March 1993 Superstorm. 

It was for Long Island. The forecast was for snow quickly changing to rain in the afternoon. Instead we got heavy wet thundersnow with visibility under 1/4 of a mile. That was one of my favorite snow events of the 1980's.

My favorite 80's snows

1) Feb 83

2) Apr 82

3) Jan 87

Worst flash freeze

Jan 86

Heaviest wind driven sleet with cold season coastal flooding

March 84

Biggest disappointment

Missing Dec 88 Nurlun superband

[Paragon]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It was for Long Island. The forecast was for snow quickly changing to rain in the afternoon. Instead we got heavy wet thundersnow with visibility under 1/4 of a mile. That was one of my favorite snow events of the 1980's.

My favorite 80's snows

1) Feb 83

2) Apr 82

3) Jan 87

Worst flash freeze

Jan 86

Heaviest wind driven sleet with cold season coastal flooding

March 84

Biggest disappointment

Missing Dec 88 Nurlun superband

I remember this!  We got sent home early from school.  Was this the 7" event at LGA? How much did JFK get?

 

We also had a December event in the 80s somewhere which was supposed to change to rain and didn't (I don't remember what year), but I remember the exact amount NYC got- 8.6"!  Changed to freezing drizzle right at the end.

Back then we used to call 976-1212 for our weather forecasts.  Funny me, I called it three different times, for the (212), (516) and (914) area codes to get the different current conditions and forecasts for Manhattan, Islip and White Plains!

 

 

[Paragon]

57 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I still don't recall 1-22-87 being a rain forecast. in NE NJ we were expecting 8 to 12 and I got almost a foot before we mixed with sleet. And LI got over a foot in spots.

Jan. 22, 1987 - A daytime snowstorm dumped 8.1" of snow on the City while much of Long Island picked up a foot or more.  (Virginia, DC, Maryland, Delaware and South Jersey bore the brunt of the storm.)  The City's accumulation was held down when sleet mixed in.  This was NYC's biggest snowfall in four years and would be the biggest until the March 1993 Superstorm. 

How did NYC mix with sleet while Long Island and South Jersey didn't I wonder?

I remember this storm, and also an 8.6 inch snowstorm in December that occurred in the 80s, but it was prior to this one (don't remember what year, just that it was in the 80s.)

 

 

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, Paragon said:

How did NYC mix with sleet while Long Island and South Jersey didn't I wonder?

I remember this storm, and also an 8.6 inch snowstorm in December that occurred in the 80s, but it was prior to this one (don't remember what year, just that it was in the 80s.)

 

 

I mixed with sleet for a time in NE NJ, maybe LI did too but after a foot had already fallen