Winter 2017-18 banter thread

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

We typically get either a mild early Winter or an early Spring. Very few Winters feature wall to wall cold and snow, at least in my memory.

I don't consider March to be a Winter month anyway, just like I don't consider December to be an Autumn month.

1st week of March I consider winter, but after the 1st week decent snow chances fall off a cliff.   (not including car toppers and 1-2 inch events here)

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

1st week of March I consider winter, but after the 1st week decent snow chances fall off a cliff.   (not including car toppers and 1-2 inch events here)

We had that major blizzard around St. Patricks day last year, but look at what area jackpotted, hint, wasn't the coast.

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

We had that major blizzard around St. Patricks day last year, but look at what area jackpotted, hint, wasn't the coast.

that was more a result of the in close track of the storm.  Had it tracked 50-75 miles east we would have jackpotted on the coast no problem.   That was a rare (of late) storm that hugged the coast.   Still got 10 inches here topped with ice even with the track so close.

[winterwx21]

50 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

It appears all three main ensemble outputs are now scouring out the cold from the 48 by mid-month.  

That's amazing because most people were hyping mid February as a very cold and snowy period. Now suddenly it's looking like a torch. This is just another example of how difficult long range forecasting is. Hopefully it'll switch back. Who the heck knows what mid-late February will be like.

[NJwx85]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that was more a result of the in close track of the storm.  Had it tracked 50-75 miles east we would have jackpotted on the coast no problem.   That was a rare (of late) storm that hugged the coast.   Still got 10 inches here topped with ice even with the track so close.

You can always argue based on the track though. Fact of the matter is, it was a climo favored outcome.

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

That's amazing because most people were hyping mid February as a very cold and snowy period. Now suddenly it's looking like a torch. This is just another example of how difficult long range forecasting is. Hopefully it'll switch back. Who the heck knows what mid-late February will be like.

Key word in your post is hype. 

Some people never learn.

[Juliancolton]

30 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

One thing I will say is that at least the European guidance keeps things seasonable as far as temps are concerned for the next two weeks. So we could have a few more chances to cash in before Winter leaves us in a few weeks.

Can't wait to head to the lake for some BBQing in flipflops on February 23rd.

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

That's amazing because most people were hyping mid February as a very cold and snowy period. Now suddenly it's looking like a torch. This is just another example of how difficult long range forecasting is. Hopefully it'll switch back. Who the heck knows what mid-late February will be like.

the models giveth, the models taketh away....

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Juliancolton said:

Can't wait to head to the lake for some BBQing in flipflops on February 23rd.

You're not very good at trolling.

[Juliancolton]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

You're not very good at trolling.

And you're not very good at meteorology, but we all manage.  

[NJwx85]

Just now, Juliancolton said:

And you're not very good at meteorology, but we all manage.  

Quite the contrary my friend, quite the contrary. 

[Brian5671]

The MJO dying and not going through 8-1-2 right away definitely hurt.   Not to mention the record amplitude into 6.

[bluewave]

47 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

1st week of March I consider winter, but after the 1st week decent snow chances fall off a cliff.   (not including car toppers and 1-2 inch events here)

The only major snowfall records that 2010's haven't been able to beat yet is the April 82 blizzard and the 95-96 winter. 

[NJwx85]

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The MJO dying and not going through 8-1-2 right away definitely hurt.   Not to mention the record amplitude into 6.

I have to admit that when this Winter began, I expected a wall to wall torch, and I was surprised by that tremendous arctic outbreak during the second half of December. But since that point, temps have been normal to slightly above normal, and I see nothing on guidance that points towards another arctic outbreak.

[the_other_guy]

Yes, January was very “normal” for NYC. Record stretch of cold followed by warmth that almost negated it.

Nothing to see here...we never have “wall to wall.” I’ve read that a few times over the past month.

Don’t worry, the snow and cold will arrive next week. Not this next week, but the next next week. Haha. 

[Snowshack]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only major snowfall records that 2010's haven't been able to beat yet is the April 82 blizzard and the 95-96 winter. 

A big April or November event is probably going to be needed to beat 95/96.   We could have done it in 04/05 with a big April.  

I’m optimistic we beat it at some point.  Just too many big totals recently for us not to get close.  We just can’t lose half the winter to a torch.  

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

A big April or November event is probably going to be needed to beat 95/96.   We could have done it in 04/05 with a big April.  

I’m optimistic we beat it at some point.  Just too many big totals recently for us not to get close.  We just can’t lose half the winter to a torch.  

I though we were going to make a run at the 95-96 totals before the pattern flipped in early Feb 11. All we needed was for that record -AO period from Jun 09 through Jan 11 to run a little bit longer.

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, Snowshack said:

A  big April or November event is probably going to be needed to beat 95/96.   We could have done it in 04/05 with a big April.  

I’m optimistic we beat it at some point.  Just too many big totals recently for us not to get close.  We just can’t lose half the winter to a torch.  

95-96 included a big April.  We had 14" and OKX 16" in April 1996.  There was also a 4" snowfall in November 1995.

FYI, the 95-96 total here was 95".  I can't imagine how we'd touch that, but strange things have been happening.

The clipper that gave a heavy snowfall to the MA and mostly rain here a week after the January 1996 blizzard could have made it a 100" winter.  So close ...

[Snowshack]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I though we were going to make a run at the 95-96 totals before the pattern flipped in early Feb 11. All we needed was for that record -AO period from Jun 09 through Jan 11 to run a little bit longer.

Agreed,another few weeks of that pattern could have done it.  I dont know what our one month ceiling really is, but another way would be to get the NYC version of Boston's Feb'15 in one month and then just average snowfall the rest of winter.   We've had two 35" months in the last decade here.   Is it possible to get say 60" in a month on the coast at this latitude?  

[NorthShoreWx]

2 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

Agreed,another few weeks of that pattern could have done it.  I dont know what our one month ceiling really is, but another way would be to get the NYC version of Boston's Feb'15 in one month and then just average snowfall the rest of winter.   We've had two 35" months in the last decade here.   Is it possible to get say 60" in a month on the coast at this latitude?  

It happened in December 1904

[Snowshack]

4 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

95-96 included a big April.  We had 14" and OKX 16" in April 1996.  There was also a 4" snowfall in November 1995.

 

The clipper that gave a heavy snowfall to the MA and mostly rain here a week after the January blizzard could have made it a 100" winter.  So close ...

FYI, the 95-96 total here was 95".  I can't imagine how we'd touch that, but strange things have been happening.

Six straight months with above normal snowfall that winter, it deserves the crown.  But like you said, strange things have been happening.  I think it can be beat.

[NorthShoreWx]

1 minute ago, Snowshack said:

Six straight months with above normal snowfall that winter, it deserves the crown.  But like you said, strange things have been happening.  I think it can be beat.

Around here, just mentioning 6 months of winter in a sentence speaks volumes.

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

Agreed,another few weeks of that pattern could have done it.  I dont know what our one month ceiling really is, but another way would be to get the NYC version of Boston's Feb'15 in one month and then just average snowfall the rest of winter.   We've had two 35" months in the last decade here.   Is it possible to get say 60" in a month on the coast at this latitude?  

The record at Newark for a 33 day period snowfall was set in 2011 at 61.5 inches. It was ahead of the previous record holder of 48.7 in 1978.

[Snowshack]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The record at Newark for a 33 day period snowfall was set in 2011 at 61.5 inches. It was ahead of the previous record holder of 48.7 in 1978.

Wow, didnt realize they broke 60".   What a great stretch...

 

[doncat]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The record at Newark for a 33 day period snowfall was set in 2011 at 61.5 inches. It was ahead of the previous record holder of 48.7 in 1978.

Wow hard to believe we had that much, epic. I measured around 57" here for that period.

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, doncat said:

Wow hard to believe we had that much, epic. I measured around 57" here for that period.

The Long Beach sanitation department kept piling the snow removed from the streets during that period on the vacant block near the boardwalk. The snow piles turned into small mountains on the stretch between Edwards and Riverside. They lasted into the spring that year and there was a constant huge puddle nearby from all the melt. 

[Snowshack]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The record at Newark for a 33 day period snowfall was set in 2011 at 61.5 inches. It was ahead of the previous record holder of 48.7 in 1978.

There’s a meteorologist that posts snowfall records for Indian lake, ny near our place in the adirondacks.  He’s got the seasonal Average at 110” there for the last 25 years.  The best single month features 62”.  

Pretty amazing that Newark can match that. 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

There’s a meteorologist that posts snowfall records for Indian lake, ny near our place in the adirondacks.  He’s got the seasonal Average at 110” there for the last 25 years.  The best single month features 62”.  

Pretty amazing that Newark can match that. 

I can remember how many fantasy snowstorms the models cooked up for much of December 2010 before the pattern finally clicked. We just needed to retrograde the AO/NAO block far enough west into +PNA for the snow machine to shift into high gear.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

18 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

There’s a meteorologist that posts snowfall records for Indian lake, ny near our place in the adirondacks.  He’s got the seasonal Average at 110” there for the last 25 years.  The best single month features 62”.  

Pretty amazing that Newark can match that. 

Part of the Adirondacks are an awful snow location for latitude and elevation. You can kind of throw White Face in there. It averages almost half what Jay and Stowe average. The SW Adirondacks near Snowy Mountain are probably the snowiest location on the East Coast. But also the most isolated and thus no one knows for sure what the average is.  

[gravitylover]

I don't know what the numbers are up around Tupper Lake but there always seems to be plenty of snow up there and headed west towards Watertown it's like being in a snowglobe as often as it isn't. The Adirondacks may not get as much snow as the Greens but they seem to hold on to it better. Do they have a more stable temperature regime with fewer wet events?