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Winter 2017-18 banter thread

WeatherFeen2000

By WeatherFeen2000,
in New York City Metro

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CPcantmeasuresnow

CPcantmeasuresnow

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Lucky. It sucks 

i just wrote a long detailed post in the model thread only to have it redirect me to the “congratulations amazon user” site again. I’m done here until it’s fixed  

I only get the amazon one on my phone, but it makes accessing this site on my phone so annoying it's just not worth it.

For those with the same problem just clear your history on safari, that seems to get rid of it.

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WeatherFeen2000

WeatherFeen2000

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50 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not really understanding some of these calls for a very cold and snowy March, given the Niña. If you go back over the last 40+ years, you can count on one hand all the cold and snowy La Niña Marchs’ on the east coast

March is going to be a torch. February on the other hand is going to be very cold and snowy in my opinion.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
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6 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

March is going to be a torch. February on the other hand is going to be very cold and snowy in my opinion.

Idk about that, the first 10 days of Feb could average well above normal. The second half should be much colder yet the monthly average may only end up somewhat BN kinda like how Jan will probably end up slightly BN to N despite the record cold start. 

Snowfall will probably end up AN for Feb but probably on par with what we've seen in Dec/Jan. 

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
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1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

March is going to be a torch. February on the other hand is going to be very cold and snowy in my opinion.

Don’t know about a full on torch, but I certainly would not bet on cold and snowy, just based on the last 40 years of La Niña March climo alone. In any March, once you get past March 1st, the clock really starts ticking for our latitude. Sun angle, length of day and climo all start working against you with each passing day. Once past the 15th, you really start fighting a huge uphill battle for cold and snow; by then you have the equivalent of a September sun

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WeathermanB

WeathermanB

Posted
Posted

You are getting too hung up on analogs, in my opinion. Based on what i'm seeing for the models, i can give a modest albeit low chance of a big snowstorm (i define it as more than 12'' in our hometown) in February. I do agree that you start fighting an uphill battle for snow after the 15th of March. The sun is pretty strong by then. MJO is forecast to enter phase 8 with a blocking pattern in the west and a trough in the east. I am a little skeptical of a -NAO and -AO developing  in February, but it is possible. But, it is still far out.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Not really understanding some of these calls for a very cold and snowy March, given the Niña. If you go back over the last 40+ years, you can count on one hand all the cold and snowy La Niña Marchs’ on the east coast

1967 was one of the snowiest Marches on record, and it was a negative neutral year. 

1996 was a weak La Nina and had a cold/snowy March.

2001 was a weak La Nina and had a cold/snowy March...much of New England saw 20"+ from the near-miss. I had about a foot in Westchester. 

2009 was a weak La Nina and had a 6-12" storm on 3/2/09. Received 10" in Dobbs Ferry. 

2017 was a weak La Nina and NYC had a 8-10" snowfall in mid-March.

Nice try, but wrong again. Weak La Ninas frequently have a warmer February but a colder March. 2017 and 1984 were the two warmest Februaries on record, both were La Ninas, and both were followed by a change back to cold in March. 

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NycStormChaser

NycStormChaser

Posted
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5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Lucky. It sucks 

i just wrote a long detailed post in the model thread only to have it redirect me to the “congratulations amazon user” site again. I’m done here until it’s fixed  

Is it possible it's on your end? I had this issue last week and it was some browser extensions that installed them selfs 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

March is going to be a torch. February on the other hand is going to be very cold and snowy in my opinion.

IMO, one needs to be careful about assuming an outcome consistent with climatology. Over-reliance on climatology would have led to thinking that January would be warmer than normal with below normal snowfall. Such a scenario would now lie in ruins with the area having seen more snowfall than what is normal for the entire month and January's remaining on course for a colder than normal January through today.

There are no guarantees that the kind of monthly snowfall the area witnessed in 1956 and 1996 will occur. However, if the cold pattern that now appears increasingly likely to return in February holds for four weeks, there could be snowfall opportunities early in March that could allow for an above normal month in terms of snowfall (the March normal is 3.9").

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CPcantmeasuresnow

CPcantmeasuresnow

Posted
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2 hours ago, bluewave said:
Utqiaġvik (Barrow) finally broke their streak of at, or above normal temperature days at 87. H/T #akwx @AlaskaWx pic.twitter.com/4OwDbkr5Yq
 

When did Barrow become Utqiagvik? I may be dating myself but I've always referenced it as Barrow. I noticed several months ago when I was looking up Thule Greenland and it came up Qaasuitsup, Are we renaming all coastal towns in the Arctic and if so when did this begin?

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BxEngine

BxEngine

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

When did Barrow become Utqiagvik? I may be dating myself but I've always referenced it as Barrow. I noticed several months ago when I was looking up Thule Greenland and it came up Qaasuitsup, Are we renaming all coastal towns in the Arctic and if so when did this begin?

When they started going underwater from sea level rise. The new names are the sounds the bubbles make coming out of your mouth trying to pronounce the name underwater.

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gravitylover

gravitylover

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

These stupid pop ups are killing this site for me. I keep getting redirected to some stupid win a prize site

 

6 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I only get the amazon one on my phone, but it makes accessing this site on my phone so annoying it's just not worth it.

For those with the same problem just clear your history on safari, that seems to get rid of it.

Yup only on the phone but it's so annoying that I won't come here anymore unless I'm on my laptop at home with the good ad/pop up blocker. I don't have an i-phone so on my android unit I cleared the cookies but that made it worse.

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IrishRob17

IrishRob17

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's amazing how pissy people get when it rains in January/February. We don't live in Fargo.

Plus that was a pretty good run from December 15th or so through the first third of January.

I don't get the point of getting worked up, it's not like we can control the weather, it is what it is.  

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