Winter 2017-18 banter thread

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Personally I bailed after seeing the models move everything north after each run.   The big bust here was up by I84 where models showed 6 plus right up to game time only to see less than 1. Northern 1/2 of CT was under a WSW for what turned out to be a coating of snow...LOL

Schools around here on the coast all stayed open thank God.

The thing is, exactly what screwed us today has aided us with many other events. So it’s really a win some you loose some thing. I’d happily have white rain today and the Jan 4th blizzard then 4” today and a whiff 

[Isotherm]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Sustained snow and cold has been tough to pull off during the 2010's without a weak El Nino like 14-15 or neutral in 13-14. 

09-10... large gap between the snowstorm on 12-19 and the next big one coming after the 2/6 suppressed storm.

10-11...Historic run of snow from 12-26 to 1-27....winter quickly shuts off after

11-12...Raging +EPO cancels winter

12-13..Amazing phaser in Feb for Eastern sections

13-14...14-15 sustained cold and snow galore

15-16....first 40/40 winter with amazing January blizzard

16-17...mild 40/30 winter

 

 

 

I would definitely consider 09-10 and 10-11 sustained cold/snow years.

[Dan76]

Are ad popups normal for the site?

[Juliancolton]

1 hour ago, Dan76 said:

Are ad popups normal for the site?

They are now!

[sferic]

uggghh I hate ad popups !

[weatherpruf]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

I couldn't really call 09-10 sustained cold or snow due to the long snow break from late December into mid-February. The best cold that winter relative to the means was over the Southeast with nothing too memorable here averaging near normal. For me, the 10-11 winter began on Boxing Day and was over with the ice storm on Ground Hog Day. December before Boxing day was one missed snow event after another. That being said, the run of just over 30 days that winter before shutting off was one of my favorite of all time. I actually enjoyed the 10-11 winter more than the sustained cold and snowy 13-14 and 14-15 winters.

I'd prefer 13-14 to 10-11, precisely because it was over so quick in 10-11. OTOH, you can't beat two big badass storms less than a month apart, and a third one that hit more toward CT but still left me with 9 inches, something the last two big storms couldn't deliver in my neck of the woods ( March 2017 and Jan 4 this year, where we struggled to get over 6....14-15 was mostly smaller events with my biggest being in March, the first in years....15-16 was memorable for the big blizzard which seemed but a blip in a tropical winter.....we'd have been better off shutting down a few days and letting nature melt it, it would save money on snow removal....not liking what i'm reading for the rest of this winter, but no one can say we didn't have a real winter this year, it has been cold and snowy, but most of the events on the smaller side. The "bomb" left me with a little fallout, that's all. We'll see.

[nzucker]

55 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I'd prefer 13-14 to 10-11, precisely because it was over so quick in 10-11. OTOH, you can't beat two big badass storms less than a month apart, and a third one that hit more toward CT but still left me with 9 inches, something the last two big storms couldn't deliver in my neck of the woods ( March 2017 and Jan 4 this year, where we struggled to get over 6....14-15 was mostly smaller events with my biggest being in March, the first in years....15-16 was memorable for the big blizzard which seemed but a blip in a tropical winter.....we'd have been better off shutting down a few days and letting nature melt it, it would save money on snow removal....not liking what i'm reading for the rest of this winter, but no one can say we didn't have a real winter this year, it has been cold and snowy, but most of the events on the smaller side. The "bomb" left me with a little fallout, that's all. We'll see.

I had an 8" storm in late February 2011...think it was 2/23 or 2/24...that was in Dobbs Ferry. 

There were also smaller snowfalls on 3/21 and 3/24 that winter. 

[CIK62]

CFS is variable during Jan. 20 - Feb. 10.

Then it brings down the hammer for the duration of its run at -10degs. to early Mar.

[BxEngine]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

This continues to be one of the easy winning forecast bets around here. Hard to bet against the WAR with near to record SST's off the EC. 

 

 

 

Look at that -pdo pacific. Classic. 

 

 

Oops. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

Look at that -pdo pacific. Classic. 

 

 

Oops. 

Historic 48 month positive streak through December. The big +PDO spike into mid-January will be the 49th + month in a row.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt

2014**   0.30   0.38   0.97   1.13   1.80   0.82   0.70   0.67   1.08   1.49   1.72   2.51
2015**   2.45   2.30   2.00   1.44   1.20   1.54   1.84   1.56   1.94   1.47   0.86   1.01
2016**   1.53   1.75   2.40   2.62   2.35   2.03   1.25   0.52   0.45   0.56   1.88   1.17
2017**   0.77   0.70   0.74   1.12   0.88   0.79   0.10   0.09   0.32   0.05   0.15   0.50

 

[CIK62]

The earliest BN, 7-Day Period on the new EURO WEEKLIES, is centered on Feb. 12.   The remaining 7-Day Periods of the output which follow, are BN to at least some degree.

Dates to watch:   1/26-2/01   Fry an egg.    But beware of upper level low passage near EC on the 30th.   2/16--new low temp. for the season?

[Dan76]

Has anybody bought anything that the new pop-ups are selling?

[NJwx85]

I agree that this thaw probably won't last until Spring, however I will enjoy the next few weeks in the meantime. 

All of us live close to the ocean, relatively speaking, and that fact pretty much guarantees that we will never see wall to wall cold in any given Winter.

What I don't understand is the obsession with cold, when it literally has no bearing on future snow events. Typically our extreme cold periods are because the PV gets parked overhead, and that suppresses the storm track until the pattern moderates. 

Blocking is really the key to getting good snows in this area, not prolonged periods of cold air.

[nycwinter]

21 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I agree that this thaw probably won't last until Spring, however I will enjoy the next few weeks in the meantime. 

All of us live close to the ocean, relatively speaking, and that fact pretty much guarantees that we will never see wall to wall cold in any given Winter.

What I don't understand is the obsession with cold, when it literally has no bearing on future snow events. Typically our extreme cold periods are because the PV gets parked overhead, and that suppresses the storm track until the pattern moderates. 

Blocking is really the key to getting good snows in this area, not prolonged periods of cold air.

what's your definition of extreme cold? i remember a blizzard in 1996 that started when temps were in the low teens extreme cold...

[NJwx85]

11 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

what's your definition of extreme cold? i remember a blizzard in 1996 that started when temps were in the low teens extreme cold...

Look at the blocking you had. 96' was a miller B, generated from a closed ULL trying to undercut the block. Then the SLP crawled North until the blocking broke down and the system got kicked East. A similar thing occurred with PDII.

February 5-6, 2010 had a similar setup, but the blocking broke down sooner and system was able to escape East.

 

It's easy to forget that 96 had a sharp cutoff too, just that it was about 150 miles NW of the city.

 

[CIK62]

Since the next 3 weeks look snow starved, I would like to see a list of all major snow and cold outbreaks that started by Feb. 10.   GFS looks frigid into Mar. starting on the 10th., so let's see what are the worst late winter actions we could expect.  Talk and memories will have to do for a week I think----until the GFS OP starts to show the real thing.

[Juliancolton]

Just now, CIK62 said:

Since the next 3 weeks look snow starved, I would like to see a list of all major snow and cold outbreaks that started by Feb. 10.   GFS looks frigid into Mar. starting on the 10th., so let's see what are the worst late winter actions we could expect.  Talk and memories will have to do for a week I think----until the GFS OP starts to show the real thing.

I'll gladly sacrifice several weeks of deep winter if it means delaying the onslaught of spring.

[Snowshack]

11 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

 

What I don't understand is the obsession with cold, when it literally has no bearing on future snow events. Typically our extreme cold periods are because the PV gets parked overhead, and that suppresses the storm track until the pattern moderates. 

 

Don’t really see many posters obsessed with extreme cold.  Especially dry and cold. Those who are won’t ever be satisfied in our area.  

That said, I rank snowcover high on the list of winter pleasures, and you only get extended snowcover with normal or below temps at the coast.  

Totally understand why people enjoy us popping +10 to 50 degrees for a few days.  But when that becomes two or three consecutive weeks during an already short season it’s annoying. 

[uncle W]

today in 1857 NYC had a blizzard known as the cold snowstorm...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030213/1857-01-20/ed-1/seq-5/

http://chroniclingam...-20/ed-1/seq-5/

https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1857-01-21/ed-1/seq-1/

 

[NEG NAO]

21 minutes ago, uncle W said:

today in 1857 NYC had a blizzard known as the cold snowstorm...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030213/1857-01-20/ed-1/seq-5/

http://chroniclingam...-20/ed-1/seq-5/

https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1857-01-21/ed-1/seq-1/

 

The way this winter has been going we might be experiencing something similar in a few weeks ……………..

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, Snowshack said:

Don’t really see many posters obsessed with extreme cold.  Especially dry and cold. Those who are won’t ever be satisfied in our area.  

That said, I rank snowcover high on the list of winter pleasures, and you only get extended snowcover with normal or below temps at the coast.  

Totally understand why people enjoy us popping +10 to 50 degrees for a few days.  But when that becomes two or three consecutive weeks during an already short season it’s annoying. 

Agreed. Prolonged snowcover is one of my favorite things with regard to winter. It's always sad seeing a heavy snowfall melt away in a few days.

[Isotherm]

52 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Agreed. Prolonged snowcover is one of my favorite things with regard to winter. It's always sad seeing a heavy snowfall melt away in a few days.

 

Agree. This is partially why I liked 2010-11 better than 2013-14 in my area. The latter had a couple torches to 55F+ erasing snow pack in January. We had 30 consecutive days of snow cover from Jan 22-Feb 20. In 2010-11, I had snow cover from Dec 26-Feb 20, the longest period I've experienced. February 2011 didn't have any snow, but it was still nice with the snow on the ground after such an amazing late Dec/Jan. I also like winters that have snow pack during the low sun angle time frame of Dec/Jan.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

Agree. This is partially why I liked 2010-11 better than 2013-14 in my area. The latter had a couple torches to 55F+ erasing snow pack in January. We had 30 consecutive days of snow cover from Jan 22-Feb 20. In 2010-11, I had snow cover from Dec 26-Feb 20, the longest period I've experienced. February 2011 didn't have any snow, but it was still nice with the snow on the ground after such an amazing late Dec/Jan. I also like winters that have snow pack during the low sun angle time frame of Dec/Jan.

People often forget one of the most recent stretches of extended snow cover on the coast. NYC had snow cover from January 24, 2015 through March 14, 2015 a stretch of 50 consecutive days , Most notable in that streak was January 27, 2015 through March 11 saw 44 consecutive days of snow cover 6 inches or more in Central Park. Though it's the most recent of the prolonged streaks people don't seem to remember it as well. Of course the February average temp in NYC during Feb 2015 was 23.9 which kept everything that fell from going anywhere.

[Paragon]

11 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Since the next 3 weeks look snow starved, I would like to see a list of all major snow and cold outbreaks that started by Feb. 10.   GFS looks frigid into Mar. starting on the 10th., so let's see what are the worst late winter actions we could expect.  Talk and memories will have to do for a week I think----until the GFS OP starts to show the real thing.

Feb 2016 -1 on Valentines Day for cold.

PD2 and late Feb 2010 snowstorm for our biggest snowfall events in the second half of winter.

[Paragon]

19 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

People often forget one of the most recent stretches of extended snow cover on the coast. NYC had snow cover from January 24, 2015 through March 14, 2015 a stretch of 50 consecutive days , Most notable in that streak was January 27, 2015 through March 11 saw 44 consecutive days of snow cover 6 inches or more in Central Park. Though it's the most recent of the prolonged streaks people don't seem to remember it as well. Of course the February average temp in NYC during Feb 2015 was 23.9 which kept everything that fell from going anywhere.

Imagine if we ever had a winter that combined 2010-11 with 2014-2015, how awesome that would be!

[Paragon]

On 1/13/2018 at 10:16 AM, Rjay said:

2016 I thought had 9 or 10 hours at FRG

yeah and about 6 at JFK.  They don't officially measure snowfall at FRG do they? I wonder how much they had.

[Nibor]

3 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Imagine if we ever had a winter that combined 2010-11 with 2014-2015, how awesome that would be!

There are winters that show up in historical records that seem utterly insane compared to modern observations. Though I was young, I feel like 95-96 is as close as I'll get in my life to something along those lines, but who knows... the era of crazy coastal snows may not be over just yet.

[CIK62]

CFS Sub-Weeklies look less certain on start, strenght and duration of any pattern change as of today.

Meanwhile we have 3 precipitation events in the next 15 days and the 850mb. T does not go below 0C at any point during them.   -7C usually does the trick.

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, Nibor said:

Agreed. Prolonged snowcover is one of my favorite things with regard to winter. It's always sad seeing a heavy snowfall melt away in a few days.

I am more into snowstorm quality than how long it remains on the ground. I will take a Jan 16 blizzard any time over lesser storms like 13-14 and 14-15 that stayed on the ground a long time. 

[jr461]

10 hours ago, Nibor said:

Agreed. Prolonged snowcover is one of my favorite things with regard to winter. It's always sad seeing a heavy snowfall melt away in a few days.

This I don't understand.  Freshly fallen snow is beautiful - I think most would agree.  After a couple days, however, it gets ugly and becomes a nuisance. 

You guys really like the black, soot covered snow lining all the roadways (even in the burbs), and the plowed piles (also filthy) consuming portions of parking lots? 

Then there's the cycle of melting and freezing from the roof, ice dams, icicles, constant dripping in the sun (even when cold), etc.

And the constant melt/thaw cycles, even when it's relatively cold, on roadways and in parking lots - streams of water from the piles of snow along the sides of the road or from the piles mixing with old salt during the day making it impossible to keep a car clean and then icing up again at night.

Even away from roads, snow cover in the yard just becomes covered with debris from trees (branches, pine needles, etc) and is no longer nice to look at before very long.

But to each his own.  I'm looking forward to this "thaw" and hoping it lasts as long as possible,  March snows aren't so bad since they do tend to melt away pretty quickly.