Winter 2017-18 banter thread

[NEG NAO]

Just now, bluewave said:

If you were looking for a snow threat to sneak in, then the best time would be around the 17th with the -NAO drop and PNA rise.

 

 

 

 

 

Exactly  - all has to do with timing and interaction of various airmasses 

[JetsPens87]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If you were looking for a snow threat to sneak in, then the best time would be around the 17th with the -NAO drop and PNA rise.

 

.

 

 

 

If the Atlantic finds a way to cooperate then that isn’t the worst look in the world. The Pacific often finds a way to win though overall, and given the lower heights in the Pac Nw, a cold period such as we just saw in duration is highly unlikely

[Cfa]

On 1/6/2018 at 1:37 PM, Snowshack said:

Really?  If we flipped warm the rest of the way you’d be content?

Totally, I’ve no use for cold. AN with a few more small snowfall events would be ideal.

[donsutherland1]

During one past winter, January had begun on a cold note only to be followed by a significant thaw. After  the 5th, a dramatic change to warmer weather took place in the East. A day later, the New York Journal of Commerce reported, “We are in the midst of the ‘January thaw’ …The fog was very dense in New York and in Long Island Sound, on Friday and Friday night.” About a week later, the New Hampshire Statesman and State Journal provided a similar account from Concord:

For a week past we have had what may be call[ed] a right January thaw; the streams are swelling, the snow fast disappearing… In fact all appearances seem to betoken the downfall of winter…

Farther west, the story was the same as the thaw rolled on. The January 20 edition of the Cleveland Daily Herald wrote:

The weather just now is more like genial spring than mid-winter, and indicates a general break up. For two months the ground has been frozen, a length of time quite unusual in this climate, but the bottom will soon fall out of the roads at the rate frost is liquidating at this time.

Had message boards and Social Media existed at the time, the end of winter would have been proclaimed loudly by many. Almost certainly, the Euro weeklies (weeks 3 and beyond) would have embraced pattern persistence, as is so often the case following large-scale pattern changes, displaying warm map after warm map. The CFSv2 would have been painted in varying shades of brown.

Gone would be any notions that forecasting in the medium-range and beyond is subject to rising uncertainty associated with a lengthening forecasting horizon. Instead, the gloomy guidance would fuel emotional reactions where all sense of probability would be lost. Instead, many would that the region had been locked in a prison of perfectly certain unrelenting warmth. In short, the widespread view eould be that winter was finished.

Going back to the case in question, had that winter truly met its downfall?

Continuing the journey through that featured winter, February saw the development of a back-and-forth pattern, as winter wrestled with a seemingly triumphant spring in a battle to regain its earlier hold. On February 15, Philadelphians awakened to an inch of snow (undoubtedly, many probably wanted far more). The North American Review of the Weather noted that in the wake of that light snowfall, “winter, after trying storms and stormy winds for about a week, once more pounced on us in the form of cold weather on the 16th…” as the temperature fell to 15° in Philadelphia. A few days later, the mercury sank to 11°. Several more snowfalls occurred on the 18th, 22nd, and 28th of February. None of those snowfalls was very large.

The calendar then turned to March. Meteorological winter had ended. Winter, however, did not.

The March 20 issue of the Brooklyn Eagle wrote:

The storm of Thursday evening [March 16] undoubtedly produced immense damage, along its whole range. The depth of snow appears to have been uniformly about two feet at all points from Philadelphia to Boston. Travel was interrupted on the great routes, and entirely cut off, for a time between New York and Boston…

These accounts are from the winter of 1842-43. That winter is among numerous examples that could have been selected to illustrate the need to resist emerging January thaw-driven temptations (maybe even delusions) to assume a premature end to winter.

Even as those temptations will likely rise in seemingly exponential fashion with the corresponding rise in thermometers as springlike breezes overspread the landscape and the blanket of snow covering the earth rapidly dissolves into streams of running water, one should not necessarily assume that winter 2017-18 has come to an abrupt and early end after having shown much promise. Most of the winters that featured a significant widespread snowfall in the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas in December or sustained severe cold during the first 10 days of January did not end early.

Very likely, winter 2017-18 is far from finished. Additional cold and much more snowfall likely lies ahead. Before then, a January thaw will test one’s patience.

[NEG NAO]

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

During one past winter, January had begun on a cold note only to be followed by a significant thaw. After  the 5th, a dramatic change to warmer weather took place in the East. A day later, the New York Journal of Commerce reported, “We are in the midst of the ‘January thaw’ …The fog was very dense in New York and in Long Island Sound, on Friday and Friday night.” About a week later, the New Hampshire Statesman and State Journal provided a similar account from Concord:

For a week past we have had what may be call[ed] a right January thaw; the streams are swelling, the snow fast disappearing… In fact all appearances seem to betoken the downfall of winter…

Farther west, the story was the same as the thaw rolled on. The January 20 edition of the Cleveland Daily Herald wrote:

The weather just now is more like genial spring than mid-winter, and indicates a general break up. For two months the ground has been frozen, a length of time quite unusual in this climate, but the bottom will soon fall out of the roads at the rate frost is liquidating at this time.

Had message boards and Social Media existed at the time, the end of winter would have been proclaimed loudly by many. Almost certainly, the Euro weeklies (weeks 3 and beyond) would have embraced pattern persistence, as is so often the case following large-scale pattern changes, displaying warm map after warm map. The CFSv2 would have been painted in varying shades of brown.

Gone would be any notions that forecasting in the medium-range and beyond is subject to rising uncertainty associated with a lengthening forecasting horizon. Instead, the gloomy guidance would fuel emotional reactions where all sense of probability would be lost. Instead, many would that the region had been locked in a prison of perfectly certain unrelenting warmth. In short, the widespread view eould be that winter was finished.

Going back to the case in question, had that winter truly met its downfall?

Continuing the journey through that featured winter, February saw the development of a back-and-forth pattern, as winter wrestled with a seemingly triumphant spring in a battle to regain its earlier hold. On February 15, Philadelphians awakened to an inch of snow (undoubtedly, many probably wanted far more). The North American Review of the Weather noted that in the wake of that light snowfall, “winter, after trying storms and stormy winds for about a week, once more pounced on us in the form of cold weather on the 16th…” as the temperature fell to 15° in Philadelphia. A few days later, the mercury sank to 11°. Several more snowfalls occurred on the 18th, 22nd, and 28th of February. None of those snowfalls was very large.

The calendar then turned to March. Meteorological winter had ended. Winter, however, did not.

The March 20 issue of the Brooklyn Eagle wrote:

The storm of Thursday evening [March 16] undoubtedly produced immense damage, along its whole range. The depth of snow appears to have been uniformly about two feet at all points from Philadelphia to Boston. Travel was interrupted on the great routes, and entirely cut off, for a time between New York and Boston…

These accounts are from the winter of 1842-43. That winter is among numerous examples that could have been selected to illustrate the need to resist emerging January thaw-driven temptations (maybe even delusions) to assume a premature end to winter.

Even as those temptations will likely rise in seemingly exponential fashion with the corresponding rise in thermometers, springlike breezes overspread the landscape, and the blanket of snow covering the earth rapidly dissolves into streams of running water, one should not necessarily assume that winter 2017-18 has come to an abrupt and early end after having shown much promise. Most of the winters that featured a significant widespread snowfall in the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas in December or sustained severe cold during the first 10 days of January did not end early.

Very likely, winter 2017-18 is far from finished. Additional cold and much more snowfall likely lies ahead. Before then, a January thaw will test one’s patience.

I don't think its going to test our patience that much. Looking at the 12Z GFS ( which we don't totally trust in the long range ) after 5 above normal days this week we are right back to at least 5 or 6 days below freezing with the possiibility of an east coast snow event the middle of next week - after that we get transient shots of both cold and mild air masses through 384 with the cold being more predominant - the real thaw IMO is this week Tuesday through Saturday...……….

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I don't think its going to test our patience that much. Looking at the 12Z GFS ( which we don't totally trust in the long range ) after 5 above normal days this week we are right back to at least 5 or 6 days below freezing with the possiibility of an east coast snow event the middle of next week - after that we get transient shots of both cold and mild air masses through 384 with the cold being more predominant - the real thaw IMO is this week Tuesday through Saturday...……….

I'm not too worried about the thaw. The frequent AO- should allow for transient cold shots and, if events are timed right, some opportunities for snowfall. I don't think January has seen its last accumulating snowfall here. I wouldn't be surprised if the region sees at least another 1-2 measurable snow events before the month concludes.

[WeatherFeen2000]

This weather is boring!!! Rainnnn even more boring!

[dmillz25]

1 minute ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

This weather is boring!!! Rainnnn even more boring!

Lmao dude we just got off a historic cold snap and got snow. We all need a break from the cold. It’ll be back trust me. And the snow too.

[WeatherFeen2000]

41 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Lmao dude we just got off a historic cold snap and got snow. We all need a break from the cold. It’ll be back trust me. And the snow too.

Ok g I'll hold u to that g money from Brooklyn in the house ya'll

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

During one past winter, January had begun on a cold note only to be followed by a significant thaw. After  the 5th, a dramatic change to warmer weather took place in the East. A day later, the New York Journal of Commerce reported, “We are in the midst of the ‘January thaw’ …The fog was very dense in New York and in Long Island Sound, on Friday and Friday night.” About a week later, the New Hampshire Statesman and State Journal provided a similar account from Concord:

For a week past we have had what may be call[ed] a right January thaw; the streams are swelling, the snow fast disappearing… In fact all appearances seem to betoken the downfall of winter…

Farther west, the story was the same as the thaw rolled on. The January 20 edition of the Cleveland Daily Herald wrote:

The weather just now is more like genial spring than mid-winter, and indicates a general break up. For two months the ground has been frozen, a length of time quite unusual in this climate, but the bottom will soon fall out of the roads at the rate frost is liquidating at this time.

Had message boards and Social Media existed at the time, the end of winter would have been proclaimed loudly by many. Almost certainly, the Euro weeklies (weeks 3 and beyond) would have embraced pattern persistence, as is so often the case following large-scale pattern changes, displaying warm map after warm map. The CFSv2 would have been painted in varying shades of brown.

Gone would be any notions that forecasting in the medium-range and beyond is subject to rising uncertainty associated with a lengthening forecasting horizon. Instead, the gloomy guidance would fuel emotional reactions where all sense of probability would be lost. Instead, many would that the region had been locked in a prison of perfectly certain unrelenting warmth. In short, the widespread view eould be that winter was finished.

Going back to the case in question, had that winter truly met its downfall?

Continuing the journey through that featured winter, February saw the development of a back-and-forth pattern, as winter wrestled with a seemingly triumphant spring in a battle to regain its earlier hold. On February 15, Philadelphians awakened to an inch of snow (undoubtedly, many probably wanted far more). The North American Review of the Weather noted that in the wake of that light snowfall, “winter, after trying storms and stormy winds for about a week, once more pounced on us in the form of cold weather on the 16th…” as the temperature fell to 15° in Philadelphia. A few days later, the mercury sank to 11°. Several more snowfalls occurred on the 18th, 22nd, and 28th of February. None of those snowfalls was very large.

The calendar then turned to March. Meteorological winter had ended. Winter, however, did not.

The March 20 issue of the Brooklyn Eagle wrote:

The storm of Thursday evening [March 16] undoubtedly produced immense damage, along its whole range. The depth of snow appears to have been uniformly about two feet at all points from Philadelphia to Boston. Travel was interrupted on the great routes, and entirely cut off, for a time between New York and Boston…

These accounts are from the winter of 1842-43. That winter is among numerous examples that could have been selected to illustrate the need to resist emerging January thaw-driven temptations (maybe even delusions) to assume a premature end to winter.

Even as those temptations will likely rise in seemingly exponential fashion with the corresponding rise in thermometers as springlike breezes overspread the landscape and the blanket of snow covering the earth rapidly dissolves into streams of running water, one should not necessarily assume that winter 2017-18 has come to an abrupt and early end after having shown much promise. Most of the winters that featured a significant widespread snowfall in the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas in December or sustained severe cold during the first 10 days of January did not end early.

Very likely, winter 2017-18 is far from finished. Additional cold and much more snowfall likely lies ahead. Before then, a January thaw will test one’s patience.

I thought for sure this was going to be about 1888!

[Mophstymeo]

There really should be a wow/yikes/holy-crap! reaction option.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

13 hours ago, Cfa said:

Totally, I’ve no use for cold. AN with a few more small snowfall events would be ideal.

Where is the hate button when you need it?

[Dan76]

Houston......we...

[Mophstymeo]

16 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Where is the hate button when you need it?

Should be added to the list.

[Snowshack]

Last night of full snowcover.  Still 3"+, with 100% coverage in my neighborhood.  The pack lasted a full week which is decent for any winter storm at the coast.  Maybe the ground won't be bare for too long..

[North and West]

I’m flying out of EWR Friday Morning at 7. What do you think the chances of being significantly delayed are?


.

[BxEngine]

23 minutes ago, North and West said:

I’m flying out of EWR Friday Morning at 7. What do you think the chances of being significantly delayed are?


.

Are you asking because its newark? Or because of the weather? 

 

75% for the former, 65% for the latter.

[North and West]

Are you asking because its newark? Or because of the weather? 
 
75% for the former, 65% for the latter.

haha, the weather!


.

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, North and West said:

haha, the weather!


.

At least it's not JFK

[North and West]

At least it's not JFK

I’ve only done JFK twice. Awful both times.


.

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t know why he would think that’s snow. The mid level lows are way, way to our west at that point and aloft is still torched

C'mon man, the point was made. 

[BxEngine]

The PNA was positive every day except 4 so far for december and january. Guess that wasnt a lock to be negative. Weird. 

[Rjay]

10 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

The PNA was positive every day except 4 so far for december and january. Guess that wasnt a lock to be negative. Weird. 

Hmm I remember a few posts by someone here saying it would be negative....

[NorthShoreWx]

Jan 11 snowcover here is 7".

 

Smithtown, NY

[forkyfork]

i checked my parents' wx station in springfield and the lowest temp during the great freeze was -1.4

[BxEngine]

 

def not run of the mill cold. 

[IrishRob17]

26 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i checked my parents' wx station in springfield and the lowest temp during the great freeze was -1.4

That’s cute that they still let you play with it. 

[Snowshack]

22 hours ago, Snowshack said:

Last night of full snowcover.  Still 3"+, with 100% coverage in my neighborhood.  The pack lasted a full week which is decent for any winter storm at the coast.  Maybe the ground won't be bare for too long..

Wrong again.  Snowcover hung on for another day. Tonight’s fog will have plenty to eat.  

[IrishRob17]

Who’s got the hot hand these days?

[BxEngine]

11 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Who’s got the hot hand these days?