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Winter 2017-18 banter thread


WeatherFeen2000

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31 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Completely nuts and irresponsible on the part of the cruise line. This storm was extremely well advertised  

I was surprised to learn that most cruise lines don't have chief meteorologists. They just hired the first one at Royal Caribbean lines recently.

http://www.royalcaribbean.com/connect/meet-the-cruise-industrys-first-chief-meteorologist/

Possibly the most common thing James Van Fleet—Royal Caribbean International’s chief meteorologist—has been hearing lately is, “Why does a cruise line need a meteorologist?” As the cruise industry’s first official one, he’s not surprised. But the newly created role is key for Royal Caribbean. Based in the cruise line’s Miami headquarters, a seasoned meteorologist has a lot to offer ship captains —as well as guests and crew, no matter where they are.

“We have ships sailing all over the world, and they face different weather conditions every day,” says Michael Bayley, Royal Caribbean’s President and CEO. “You have to keep an eye on the weather systems at all times. And with more than 20 years of experience, Jim is an expert we’re excited to have on our team.”

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I was surprised to learn that most cruise lines don't have chief meteorologists. They just hired the first one at Royal Caribbean lines recently.

http://www.royalcaribbean.com/connect/meet-the-cruise-industrys-first-chief-meteorologist/

Possibly the most common thing James Van Fleet—Royal Caribbean International’s chief meteorologist—has been hearing lately is, “Why does a cruise line need a meteorologist?” As the cruise industry’s first official one, he’s not surprised. But the newly created role is key for Royal Caribbean. Based in the cruise line’s Miami headquarters, a seasoned meteorologist has a lot to offer ship captains —as well as guests and crew, no matter where they are.

“We have ships sailing all over the world, and they face different weather conditions every day,” says Michael Bayley, Royal Caribbean’s President and CEO. “You have to keep an eye on the weather systems at all times. And with more than 20 years of experience, Jim is an expert we’re excited to have on our team.”

Wow. I am actually shocked cruise lines don’t have meteorologists. 

I’ve been on the breakaway before and actually saw it come up the Hudson Friday afternoon from my office. 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/norwegian-cruise-line-passengers-recall-trip-atlantic-ocean-winter-storm-2018/

the explanation of ‘stronger than expected’ weather conditions is either a lie or negligence. This was extremely well forecasted as far as explosive development over the ocean. We aren’t talking about a 50 mile wobble east or west here that would have made for smooth sailing. 

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7 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

Wow. I am actually shocked cruise lines don’t have meteorologists. 

I’ve been on the breakaway before and actually saw it come up the Hudson Friday afternoon from my office. 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/norwegian-cruise-line-passengers-recall-trip-atlantic-ocean-winter-storm-2018/

the explanation of ‘stronger than expected’ weather conditions is either a lie or negligence. This was extremely well forecasted as far as explosive development over the ocean. We aren’t talking about a 50 mile wobble east or west here that would have made for smooth sailing. 

The excuse of ‘unexpected’ weather conditions is boilerplate whenever such ships run into often well-modeled storms. Then again, when one sails blindly (in terms of the meteorological outlook) out into the ocean, everything can be a surprise. I’m glad that one cruise line has hired a chief meteorologist. All of them should have such a position.

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6 hours ago, tdp146 said:

Wow. I am actually shocked cruise lines don’t have meteorologists. 

I’ve been on the breakaway before and actually saw it come up the Hudson Friday afternoon from my office. 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/norwegian-cruise-line-passengers-recall-trip-atlantic-ocean-winter-storm-2018/

the explanation of ‘stronger than expected’ weather conditions is either a lie or negligence. This was extremely well forecasted as far as explosive development over the ocean. We aren’t talking about a 50 mile wobble east or west here that would have made for smooth sailing. 

It took numerous incidents of the Royal Caribbean Cruise line going through dangerous conditions for them to finally hire the chief meteorologist. It will be interesting to see if Norweigan follows that lead.

https://www.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2017/06/19/after-being-caught-off-guard-twice-last-year-royal-caribbean-hires-a-former-orlando-meteorologist

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2 minutes ago, North and West said:

Dug out my sewer/storm drain/catch basin today. Didn’t have a ton of snow, but it’s good to have clear pathways for runoff in case it rains this week. Be proactive and minimize flood potential!


.

Too many people would rather complain “Someone should really clean those storm drains!”

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7 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Now that the wind died down I was able to take down the outside Christmas lights in a hoodie, it felt terrific. Goes to show how relative weather the really is. 

Absolutely.  I checked in here just now to say how it's interesting how we quickly we acclimate to the colder temperatures.  Out earlier with no wind and the sun hitting me, it felt like a typical, brisk NY winter day.  I'd say it felt like about 30, when in reality it was just 14.  Two weeks below freezing does that I guess.

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2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm curious if anyone knows why uncle W has not posted for the last couple of weeks. I always looked forward to his daily updates. Any information that could be supplied would be appreciated. Thanks.

I'm not sure. I've noticed it, too. I hope he's ok and perhaps on vacation.

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1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm curious if anyone knows why uncle W has not posted for the last couple of weeks. I always looked forward to his daily updates. Any information that could be supplied would be appreciated. Thanks.

he's around-he's been on other forums...

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In case anyone is interested.  Was on a cruise about 15 years ago from San Diego to Alaska.  We also encountered seven harrowing hours of 25-30 ft swells.  My wife was so seasick that she somehow eventually forced herself to sleep since she felt so lousy.  I, on the other hand, who can eat a hot dog while riding the enterprise at six flags, couldn't sleep for anything.  It didn't help that you literally had to hold yourself on the bed to keep from sliding/rolling off.  I remember looking out the window and seeing the stabilizers out of the water more than they were in it.  They eventually brought them back in for fear they would snap off.  That night, when I went for dinner in the main ship dining room, it was only me and mainly members of the bridge staff.  Even much of the crew was sick.  No one was allowed on an outside deck and only sneakers were allowed to be worn.  Craziest part was that it wasn't even raining.  Swells were being caused by storm much further out in the Pacific.  We were as near the sure as we could safely be.  Probably should have taken the longer but slower inside passage.  There was no damage to the ship except for things falling off of walls and shelves.  Then again, this ship was probably 1/4 the size of the Breakaway.

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2 hours ago, stu said:

In case anyone is interested.  Was on a cruise about 15 years ago from San Diego to Alaska.  We also encountered seven harrowing hours of 25-30 ft swells.  My wife was so seasick that she somehow eventually forced herself to sleep since she felt so lousy.  I, on the other hand, who can eat a hot dog while riding the enterprise at six flags, couldn't sleep for anything.  It didn't help that you literally had to hold yourself on the bed to keep from sliding/rolling off.  I remember looking out the window and seeing the stabilizers out of the water more than they were in it.  They eventually brought them back in for fear they would snap off.  That night, when I went for dinner in the main ship dining room, it was only me and mainly members of the bridge staff.  Even much of the crew was sick.  No one was allowed on an outside deck and only sneakers were allowed to be worn.  Craziest part was that it wasn't even raining.  Swells were being caused by storm much further out in the Pacific.  We were as near the sure as we could safely be.  Probably should have taken the longer but slower inside passage.  There was no damage to the ship except for things falling off of walls and shelves.  Then again, this ship was probably 1/4 the size of the Breakaway.

I was on a cruise ship the size of the Breakaway in October 06 off the Pacific coast of Mexico that passed near a cat 3 hurricane. The swells were probably around 20’. I was extremely sick. It was the first and only time I have ever been sea sick. I have been out fishing in similar seas and never got sick. Something about being in a small cabin didn’t agree with me. Waves were washing over the window on the 4th deck. I never left the room/bathroom except for one trip to the deck to see the ship hitting the swells. It was a horrible experience. So I can’t imagine what these people went through!!

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Amazing run of 2010's weather and climate extremes continues.

December 2017 was the warmest December on record for Alaska with a statewide average temperature of 19.4°F, 15.7°F above average:bit.ly/USClimate201712 #StateOfClimate pic.twitter.com/jRoyPDoM2x
 
Many locations across the SE have experienced their coldest first week of January on record! pic.twitter.com/hssNHlIe2F
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45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Amazing run of 2010's weather and climate extremes continues.

December 2017 was the warmest December on record for Alaska with a statewide average temperature of 19.4°F, 15.7°F above average:bit.ly/USClimate201712 #StateOfClimate pic.twitter.com/jRoyPDoM2x
 
Many locations across the SE have experienced their coldest first week of January on record! pic.twitter.com/hssNHlIe2F

Let's keep it that way permanently... 

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I was on a cruise ship the size of the Breakaway in October 06 off the Pacific coast of Mexico that passed near a cat 3 hurricane. The swells were probably around 20’. I was extremely sick. It was the first and only time I have ever been sea sick. I have been out fishing in similar seas and never got sick. Something about being in a small cabin didn’t agree with me. Waves were washing over the window on the 4th deck. I never left the room/bathroom except for one trip to the deck to see the ship hitting the swells. It was a horrible experience. So I can’t imagine what these people went through!!

We’re off on a cruise next week. I hope the Caribbean is quiet!


.
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As we went above freezing here on LI for the first time since Christmas afternoon, wanted to say thanks to everyone who takes the time to share their insights on this board, benefitting weather enthusiasts like myself.  It's been a lot of fun following the weather the past few weeks, and I'm really impressed by how our chances for the  Jan 4 storm were being discussed and explained over seven days out, and how this board nailed the date for when we'd go back above freezing even further out than that.   The fact that predicting the future over a week out gets zero credit, but if the next one veers 50 miles east all the mets will be vilified, is really ridiculous.  Anyway thanks all, and looking forward to the next one!

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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Amazing run of 2010's weather and climate extremes continues.

December 2017 was the warmest December on record for Alaska with a statewide average temperature of 19.4°F, 15.7°F above average:bit.ly/USClimate201712 #StateOfClimate pic.twitter.com/jRoyPDoM2x
 
Many locations across the SE have experienced their coldest first week of January on record! pic.twitter.com/hssNHlIe2F

AMO is warmest ever x2 and La Nina has never been so stacked. The real thing of the 2000s, and more so the 2010s, is the North Pacific High.. much stronger. 

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Next 8 days continuing to average a topsy-turvy 38degs., or 5degs. AN.

There is just a 25% chance these 8-day periods go much BN again by Jan. 28, and just 50/50 by Feb. 15.  All LR guidance shows AN over next 45 days.  No hint of conflict till Jan. 28, when some members go negative.

CFS averages about +4degs. for the rest of the month and endangers even a BN Jan., despite the great start.

Precipitation and temperature keep moving in unision.  Makes snow very uncertain.

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3 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days continuing to average a topsy-turvy 38degs., or 5degs. AN.

There is just a 25% chance these 8-day periods go much BN again by Jan. 28, and just 50/50 by Feb. 15.  All LR guidance shows AN over next 45 days.  No hint of conflict till Jan. 28, when some members go negative.

CFS averages about +4degs. for the rest of the month and endangers even a BN Jan., despite the great start.

Precipitation and temperature keep moving in unision.  Makes snow very uncertain.

Total Snowfall is next to impossible to predict long range - sometimes favorable patters produce next to nothing and unfavorable ones find a way to produce snow storms around here ….

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