donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, North and West said: “Well, it’s just like the last storm... which you don’t remember.” He’s looking for a January 2016 repeat. . I agree. That's what it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That exact storm is not possible but a similar result is. As low of a probability as it is, it’s not off the table. If thing fully phases and heads up the cape cod canal it’s going to be on of the big ones I remember the night before the January 2016 storm just giving up. I signed off the forum saying I fully expected to wake to see the Euro showing a completely OTS solution. Instead, I woke up to a forecasted bomb. My gut -- my totally unscientific gut, a gut with little knowledge but hoping to fake-out the weather gods -- is telling me the GooFuS isn't being so goofy this time around. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I agree. That's what it looks like.He would be thrilled. As would his dad. Until we shovel.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Think chances of a major storm are off the table for our area, however I think a SECS still possible for some. Enough time for things to change and data will be more adequately sampled by 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Do you think this storm will go out to sea? That never happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 hours ago, Mophstymeo said: I remember the night before the January 2016 storm just giving up. I signed off the forum saying I fully expected to wake to see the Euro showing a completely OTS solution. Instead, I woke up to a forecasted bomb. My gut -- my totally unscientific gut, a gut with little knowledge but hoping to fake-out the weather gods -- is telling me the GooFuS isn't being so goofy this time around. We shall see. To this day the fact I missed out on that kicks me in the gut. I thought Long Beach was good for a decent, 6” or so event 36 hours out but it made the last second reach north at the last minute after I could make plans to fly in from Austin. Judging by photos it was at least 24”. There was a huge snow drift the whole way up the side of my garage. I came back in February and saw the last few piles from it melting away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, jm1220 said: To this day the fact I missed out on that kicks me in the gut. I thought Long Beach was good for a decent, 6” or so event 36 hours out but it made the last second reach north at the last minute after I could make plans to fly in from Austin. Judging by photos it was at least 24”. There was a huge snow drift the whole way up the side of my garage. I came back in February and saw the last few piles from it melting away. Honestly, it was like Christmas -- and I'm Jewish! The only thing that diminished the storm a bit for me was that I threw my back out shoveling that Sunday morning. Never have I felt more exquisite pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 10 hours ago, gravitylover said: I miss getting frequent clippers and small events. This winter has more of that feel rather than the blockbuster scenarios of the last few years. These are minute events though lol, these were a dime a dozen in the 80s. We haven't lacked 1-3" events, those are fairly common, what we lacked are the in-betweeners, the 4-6 and 6-8 inch events. Those keep the snowcover going and pile one on top of the other. I'd like to get four 6 inch events over ten 1-3 inch events or just one 2 ft event for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: To this day the fact I missed out on that kicks me in the gut. I thought Long Beach was good for a decent, 6” or so event 36 hours out but it made the last second reach north at the last minute after I could make plans to fly in from Austin. Judging by photos it was at least 24”. There was a huge snow drift the whole way up the side of my garage. I came back in February and saw the last few piles from it melting away. 30 inches + man! 24 inches my 2 feet haha, it was significantly more than PD2 and I have the pics of both to prove it and compare them. I used up 2 32 GB flash cards in images and videos on that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That exact storm is not possible but a similar result is. As low of a probability as it is, it’s not off the table. If thing fully phases and heads up the cape cod canal it’s going to be on of the big ones I hope one day some mad scientist develops technology to control the weather and puts that exact storm on repeat lol, except I'd be more giving to my northern brethren and let them share in the snow lol. I hate sharp cut offs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 10 hours ago, tdenzler said: Walked across the Great South Bay to the barrier islands off Amityville that year.. Brutal cold and incredibly thick ice.... never seen ice like that since than... The current outbreak just may rival it.... also like this year's... Snow was limited.... Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk maybe we'll have an el nino next year and get a 77-78 kind of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12 hours ago, Roger Smith said: It's a wrap -- 2017 forecast contest results all posted above. We had some very close finishes and three different forecasters won the top honors, RJay overall, DonSutherland1 for the "original six" and RodneyS for the western contest. BKViking, wxallannj and SD all did quite well and the chase pack was very close behind them. Congrats to the various winners, and good luck in 2018. Post your thoughts ... The champ is here!! Suck it Bx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 hours ago, Paragon said: These are minute events though lol, these were a dime a dozen in the 80s. We haven't lacked 1-3" events, those are fairly common, what we lacked are the in-betweeners, the 4-6 and 6-8 inch events. Those keep the snowcover going and pile one on top of the other. I'd like to get four 6 inch events over ten 1-3 inch events or just one 2 ft event for that matter. Not nearly as common as they used to be. I could be content going a whole season with a string of 2-6" events and forego the biggies. Partially because shoveling is easier and as one ages that's definitely a consideration but more importantly it's a sign of deeply layered cold rather than transient cooldowns and warmups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Coming west, way west, well nw, h5 looks good, should be a hit, looks great.......its a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 Okay you guys are my friends so I happen to tell you guys my secret I control the storm systems locations in our area, the last few days I've been positioning it westerly but not enough to get this a major hit. I just made that adjustment and positioned the low at benchmark. The next nam will be NAM'D and you best believe it. All the models will show a broader precipitation up to Pennsylvania border. NYC is going to be in the death band and get a foot+ of snow. I will have the MAM snow map later this evening as my day consists of bitcoin and litecoin trading. I posted this on banter because nobody believes me but they will soon and I figured the mods will delete my comment. Enjoy the snow my fellow Final call NYC 12 HARTFORD 10 BOSTON 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1-4-2018, what a weird day to have a historic storm. "Remember 1-4-2018, the strongest Winter low pressure on record?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 After tracking this storm, I might need a vacation. Or a Valium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I honestly have no idea what to expect from this storm, given my location... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I honestly have no idea what to expect from this storm, given my location...Where are you?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 hours ago, North and West said: Where are you? . Northeast NJ. Im fringed by the Euro and pummeled by the mesos. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 29 minutes ago, Nibor said: Northeast NJ. Im fringed by the Euro and pummeled by the mesos. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Always upvote a shrug! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 At this juncture I’m starting to think I should push my ideas from the other day about 50 miles west. So the main deform and highest totals over central Suffolk instead of the forks. Major accumulations greater then 6” now back to the city. There will most likely be a secondary heavy band displaced to the NW. where that develops is the big question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 http://www.nj.com/cape-may-county/index.ssf/2018/01/from_cape_may_to_alaska.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 All I see anymore are super hi-res 700mb vorticity maps. It's about the most useless product I can imagine for winter storm forecasting but #prettycolors rule the day I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 hours ago, North and West said: http://www.nj.com/cape-may-county/index.ssf/2018/01/from_cape_may_to_alaska.html Awesome. I've gone to Wildwood and Cape May since I was a little kid, and continue to go. Crazy to see ice all around the Atlantus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 As I have previously stated I control the positioning of low pressures with my mind and I have been moving this storm to the benchmark position the past 24 hours. I now am working on positionng this low pressure more tucked in resulting in much heavier snows around our region. I expect 12 inches of snow for central park. Enjoy the snow my fellow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Love it when the AFD conveys some personality : .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... So far this winter we`ve had intense cold. However for this winter to really rank up there for an overall memorable winter known for cold and snow in these parts such as 1977-1978, 1993-1994 or 1995-1996, it needs to deliver with the snow. This looks about to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 23 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: As I have previously stated I control the positioning of low pressures with my mind and I have been moving this storm to the benchmark position the past 24 hours. I now am working on positionng this low pressure more tucked in resulting in much heavier snows around our region. I expect 12 inches of snow for central park. Enjoy the snow my fellow Your completely nuts. But it did work out this time. At least for the island. We still have to see where the westernmost heavy band sets up before we start claiming victory for the city-west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 hours ago, North and West said: http://www.nj.com/cape-may-county/index.ssf/2018/01/from_cape_may_to_alaska.html Interestingly there is barely any ice on the Hudson. And there was a ton in feb 15. I expect that to change after this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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