Winter 2017-18 banter thread

[Santa Claus]

Winter 2017 is quietly off to a great start.

[forkyfork]

4 hours ago, Paragon said:

That's a good point, the winds with that were crazy!  How close was it to being a triple phaser in our region?

I remember it got down pretty low for pressure- 960 mb?

Another one that I read about that probably got pretty close was March 1960.

Crazy winds and very heavy snow.  Nantucket got buried!

it was a polar/stj phase... down to 964 mb near cape cod

[Tatamy]

7 hours ago, Paragon said:

And it was sooooo close! I remember watching Ch. 7 back then and they were saying that it looked like some of the models wanted to track March 1993 to Montauk which would mean 20" of snow for us.  Of course in these days that doesn't seen extremely out of the ordinary with the snowfall amounts, but with such a powerful storm with a long fetch of moisture going all the way back to the Gulf Coast, and the tremendous winds, we would have seen a lot more than 20 inches of snow.  And 5 ft drifts!

If we had that kind of storm today I predict we'd get widespread 30+ inch amounts and lollipops to 40" with 6 ft or higher drifts.  I mean considering the kinds of storms we have already seen, this doesn't seem like an outlandish prediction.

And could you imagine a looping or stalled triple phaser just offshore?

Take the late Feb 2010 storm and if it was a triple phaser with slightly more cold air, imagine how much more historic it would have been.

I lived out in Brentwood on the island at the time (March 1993).  We had 10" before it changed over to sleet.  With the powerful winds and the freezing rain that mixed in we had layers of ice all over the back of the house (south side).  The sound of that sleet was so loud.  Even with the changeover it was still a very nasty storm on the island.  There were frequent interruptions on the radio with updated forecasts for the storm in the days prior.  If anyone remembers the doomsday theme that they used to play on radio back then for severe alerts (This is a test of the emergency broadcast system...) that is what they played on FM radio (WNSR if anyone remembers) prior to each bulletin.  All things considered the models of the day did a decent job with it.

[Rjay]

12 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I lived out in Brentwood on the island at the time (March 1993).  We had 10" before it changed over to sleet.  With the powerful winds and the freezing rain that mixed in we had layers of ice all over the back of the house (south side).  The sound of that sleet was so loud.  Even with the changeover it was still a very nasty storm on the island.  There were frequent interruptions on the radio with updated forecasts for the storm in the days prior.  If anyone remembers the doomsday theme that they used to play on radio back then for severe alerts (This is a test of the emergency broadcast system...) that is what they played on FM radio (WNSR if anyone remembers) prior to each bulletin.  All things considered the models of the day did a decent job with it.

Had 10" here too before the changeover.   Lots of wind.  Lost power for 2 days.  I remember the house being so cold.   I was 10.  

[gravitylover]

7 hours ago, Paragon said:

And it was sooooo close! I remember watching Ch. 7 back then and they were saying that it looked like some of the models wanted to track March 1993 to Montauk which would mean 20" of snow for us.  Of course in these days that doesn't seen extremely out of the ordinary with the snowfall amounts, but with such a powerful storm with a long fetch of moisture going all the way back to the Gulf Coast, and the tremendous winds, we would have seen a lot more than 20 inches of snow.  And 5 ft drifts!

If we had that kind of storm today I predict we'd get widespread 30+ inch amounts and lollipops to 40" with 6 ft or higher drifts.  I mean considering the kinds of storms we have already seen, this doesn't seem like an outlandish prediction.

And could you imagine a looping or stalled triple phaser just offshore?

Take the late Feb 2010 storm and if it was a triple phaser with slightly more cold air, imagine how much more historic it would have been.

Those two '78 storms are the only ones I remember on LI with monster drifts. My yard in Oceanside had drifts to the top of the 6' fence and the parking lot behind the house had them 4-5' along the northern/lee side of the building blocking the doors and ripples 2-4' high across the parking lot. I don't remember if it was the January or February one that was more significant just that they were both huge to an 11 year old. Those are the storms that turned me into a weather weenie  

[Tatamy]

12 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Those two '78 storms are the only ones I remember on LI with monster drifts. My yard in Oceanside had drifts to the top of the 6' fence and the parking lot behind the house had them 4-5' along the northern/lee side of the building blocking the doors and ripples 2-4' high across the parking lot. I don't remember if it was the January or February one that was more significant just that they were both huge to an 11 year old. Those are the storms that turned me into a weather weenie  

We had drifts where we were in East Northport to 4 - 6 feet in height from 2/78.  The only other storm that I can recall that had drifts of that height was in 2/69.  We had drifts in our backyard to 6 feet from that one.  The snow was dense enough that we could actually walk onto the top of those drifts.

[gravitylover]

8 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

We had drifts where we were in East Northport to 4 - 6 feet in height from 2/78.  The only other storm that I can recall that had drifts of that height was in 2/69.  We had drifts in our backyard to 6 feet from that one.  The snow was dense enough that we could actually walk onto the top of those drifts.

Yeah I figured it was the Feb storm, thanks. All I remember from that 69 storm was running out from my porch and stepping out into face deep snow and screaming in fear. When I calmed down my dad was laughing hysterically and the neighbor kid had pulled me out by the hood of my jacket and he was laughing too. Totally traumatized 3 year old  

[IrishRob17]

What happened to the skin here?  

[Rjay]

18 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

What happened to the skin here?  

Working on the issue

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

What happened to the skin here?  

Thought i wasn’t just me, glad to hear it’s now

[Dan76]

Had to re-sign in

[gravitylover]

Yeah it's weird. Whatever, so am I  

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Warming at 10mb almost always becomes -NAO 25-40 days later. Models have a very anomalous 10mb level through the end of December... January is probably 70% chance of negative NAO

[Paragon]

12 hours ago, Tatamy said:

I lived out in Brentwood on the island at the time (March 1993).  We had 10" before it changed over to sleet.  With the powerful winds and the freezing rain that mixed in we had layers of ice all over the back of the house (south side).  The sound of that sleet was so loud.  Even with the changeover it was still a very nasty storm on the island.  There were frequent interruptions on the radio with updated forecasts for the storm in the days prior.  If anyone remembers the doomsday theme that they used to play on radio back then for severe alerts (This is a test of the emergency broadcast system...) that is what they played on FM radio (WNSR if anyone remembers) prior to each bulletin.  All things considered the models of the day did a decent job with it.

 

12 hours ago, Rjay said:

Had 10" here too before the changeover.   Lots of wind.  Lost power for 2 days.  I remember the house being so cold.   I was 10.  

I guess we all had 10" and witnessed the same changeover to sleet around the same time (4 PM I think?)  I was waiting for that backside to kick in, but it dissolved to a few flurries by the time it got here.

 

The models did do a great job with it, especially after the years of lackluster winter weather we had, they were ringing the alarm bells a week in advance and comparing it to March 1888! ( It occurred on the same dates too.)

 

 

[Paragon]

2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Warming at 10mb almost always becomes -NAO 25-40 days later. Models have a very anomalous 10mb level through the end of December... January is probably 70% chance of negative NAO

That's why I was thinking these mild/snowless January forecasts might be in some trouble.

 

[Paragon]

12 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Those two '78 storms are the only ones I remember on LI with monster drifts. My yard in Oceanside had drifts to the top of the 6' fence and the parking lot behind the house had them 4-5' along the northern/lee side of the building blocking the doors and ripples 2-4' high across the parking lot. I don't remember if it was the January or February one that was more significant just that they were both huge to an 11 year old. Those are the storms that turned me into a weather weenie  

I was too small to remember any of this, but I take it the 14" measured at JFK doesn't sound very accurate

Especially when NYC measured 18" and the storm got worse as you headed east.

Did you try to climb over the drifts?  Or did you bring out a trampoline to try and jump high enough to see what was on the other side of the drift

 

[Paragon]

14 hours ago, forkyfork said:

it was a polar/stj phase... down to 964 mb near cape cod

Crazy drifts, I remember how it was such a nice surprise because the models only came into agreement like 24 hrs before the storm lol.

NCEP thought it was a modeling bug at first lol.

 

[Paragon]

16 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

That was an absolutely incredible winter north and west of the city. I believe many areas in interior NNJ and SE NY had over 100" for the winter, in addition to 40" snow depths after the February storm.

Yeah Nate loved that winter, and his bit of elevation helped too ;-)

 

[Paragon]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

Storm tracks like this were brutal. 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1994/us0118.php

That's why I read about historical storms from the past so much.  All through the 80s and early 90s (since Feb 1983) I was waiting for the "classic noreaster" to reappear.

 

[uncle W]

57 years ago today...

 

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

I was too small to remember any of this, but I take it the 14" measured at JFK doesn't sound very accurate

Especially when NYC measured 18" and the storm got worse as you headed east.

Did you try to climb over the drifts?  Or did you bring out a trampoline to try and jump high enough to see what was on the other side of the drift

 

My recollection is 22" in Oceanside. I walked around with a yardstick and stuck it in the snow in at least a dozen spots around my block before the it got too warm and compacted.

Of course we climbed the drifts Falling in was scary so we laid a blanket down and that helped. We used old tennis rackets to make snowshoes after the January storm so those were useful. Jumping off big things into the snow was fun too. One of the kids had a mini bike with big fat tires that we used to skitch around the neighborhood because other than one through street it was almost 3 days before we saw a plow so cars couldn't even move. Fun kid stuff memories 

 

[Paragon]

25 minutes ago, uncle W said:

57 years ago today...

 

Hey Unc do you have any images of a plane in the early 70s that landed on Rockaway Tnpk?

[Paragon]

9 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

My recollection is 22" in Oceanside. I walked around with a yardstick and stuck it in the snow in at least a dozen spots around my block before the it got too warm and compacted.

Of course we climbed the drifts Falling in was scary so we laid a blanket down and that helped. We used old tennis rackets to make snowshoes after the January storm so those were useful. Jumping off big things into the snow was fun too. One of the kids had a mini bike with big fat tires that we used to skitch around the neighborhood because other than one through street it was almost 3 days before we saw a plow so cars couldn't even move. Fun kid stuff memories 

 

I remember seeing a map with spotter totals and there was a 22" amount in that general region!

Sounds like fun memories- which storm did you enjoy more?

The Jan storm was a big surprise but probably a little less snow?

Do you recall any measurements in the area from the January storm?

 

[uncle W]

33 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Hey Unc do you have any images of a plane in the early 70s that landed on Rockaway Tnpk?

never heard of that?...I saw a sight that had every plane crash ever listed...u tube also has more videos of plane crashes...it sounds like an obscure one...there were so many in the 1960's...I have plane phobia since I was little...I used to have nightmares about plane crashes...I drive everywhere...but I digress...

[Paragon]

5 minutes ago, uncle W said:

never heard of that?...I saw a sight that had every plane crash ever listed...u tube also has more videos of plane crashes...it sounds like an obscure one...there were so many in the 1960's...I have plane phobia since I was little...I used to have nightmares about plane crashes...I drive everywhere...but I digress...

It was a 727 I think.  I didn't witness it but my best friend's parents told me about it.  Might have been in the 80s  but it was definitely sometime in the 70s or 80s.

It wasn't a crash it just landed right in the middle of the road lol.

 

[SnowGoose69]

14 minutes ago, uncle W said:

never heard of that?...I saw a sight that had every plane crash ever listed...u tube also has more videos of plane crashes...it sounds like an obscure one...there were so many in the 1960's...I have plane phobia since I was little...I used to have nightmares about plane crashes...I drive everywhere...but I digress...

I initially thought he meant the summer 1975 Eastern incident at JFK in a thunderstorm but I don’t think that ended up out on the road.   As they figured out more and more causes of crashes the numbers have really fallen off since the middle 90s.  Weather incidents have more or less been completely eliminate now to the point that if a crash is weather related it’s generally pilot error because the notification systems for wind shear are too good and ATC knows more info about icing as to not hold aircraft for lengthy periods in those conditions  

[MJO812]

Redfield , NY already has 99.7 inches of snow

Wow

[bluewave]

Is there something wrong with my computer are are you guys doing some big upgrades. The layout keeps changing over the last few hours and it keeps logging out my account.

[sferic]

Is Sunday night  ( 12/17) a chance to add a 4th wintry event in 8 days?

[IrishRob17]

I’m liking the update, just discovered the new like button, I like the other options available now too.