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Winter 2017-18 banter thread


WeatherFeen2000

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  On 2/21/2018 at 10:08 AM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I don't know, 1 post overnight. this thread alone has 55,000 views.
Look what's happening in Texas... this is February 

texas.png

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The severe season in Southern Texas will be starting soon.

Yesterday's convection was more bark than bite anyway, just look at the storm reports from SPC.

I sense you believe this has something to do with global warming. Convection/Thunderstorms are not uncommon in February, look at the storm reports from 2/28/17 and 3/1/17 alone

170228_rpts Reports Graphic170301_rpts Reports Graphic

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  On 2/5/2018 at 11:19 PM, Cfa said:

Wow.

ISP’s record for December is 77°, and given the ongoing pattern of extremes I’d say this region’s first 80°+ met winter day is more of a question of when, not if.

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Totally didn’t expect the possibility of such an event to come only 2 weeks after I posted this.

Edit: EWR hits 80+, remind me never to make any predictions regarding cold or snow.

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  On 2/21/2018 at 6:39 PM, North and West said:

I wonder what the over/under is on how many friends I'll see post on FB/IG today that they're starting their gardens. (Pro tip: For the love of God/Dog, please don't do this.)

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Everyone knows to wait until the clocks spring ahead so that the seedlings get that extra hour of daylight.

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  On 2/22/2018 at 2:13 PM, snowman19 said:

Watching PB bust hard was the best. Hopefully he got some humility now. It was beautiful 

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He wasn't the only one

Many people thought February was going to be cold and snowy

The MJO stalled in phase 7 which a lot of people didn't see that happening. Now it's moving along so expect more snow to come.

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  On 2/22/2018 at 2:35 PM, Snow88 said:

 

He wasn't the only one

Many people thought February was going to be cold and snowy

The MJO stalled in phase 7 which a lot of people didn't see that happening. Now it's moving along so expect more snow to come.

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Yes, if the MJO had continued through Phases 8-1-2, instead of stalling in Phase 7, it would have been a much colder month. Models that were based on that MJO configuration had a nice +PNA. 

I was lucky to get 6"+ of snowfall this February despite the record warmth. Seasonal is 25.5" on an average of 28-30" here in the Northeast Bronx. Should exceed average with the progged pattern.

It will be interesting to see how a -NAO manifests itself given the extreme SSW and favorable alignment of the MJO. Should see a very wintry pattern in the March 1-15 period.

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  On 2/22/2018 at 2:35 PM, Snow88 said:

 

He wasn't the only one

Many people thought February was going to be cold and snowy

The MJO stalled in phase 7 which a lot of people didn't see that happening. Now it's moving along so expect more snow to come.

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That's why it's so difficult to predict a pattern change a month out with any degree of certainty. One change can mess everything up

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  On 2/22/2018 at 3:12 PM, Stormlover74 said:

That's why it's so difficult to predict a pattern change a month out with any degree of certainty. One change can mess everything up

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ENSO seasonal progressions were one of the few long range forecast tools that worked during the 2010's winters. Everything else was one new type of extreme after another.

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