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Winter 2017-18 banter thread


WeatherFeen2000

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  On 1/1/2018 at 12:25 AM, nzucker said:
Jan 2004 and XMAS 1980 were pretty big ones you missed. 

You know, I was thinking about 2004 since it was cold here and I remember ice on the Hudson and playing hockey outside, but I don’t remember it being brutally cold; just cold. Of course, my memory might be fuzzy on it.

1980 was before my time and I don’t remember my parents talking about it.


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Apparently the storm is a lost cause. 

Complete garbage. This is the exact trash that keeps good posters away. It happens over and over and over. The only time anyone should be claiming a threat is a lost cause is within 24 hours if all the guidence is in agreement. I’m really getting sick of it. 

To be fair it goes both ways.  

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  On 1/1/2018 at 12:58 AM, North and West said:


You know, I was thinking about 2004 since it was cold here and I remember ice on the Hudson and playing hockey outside, but I don’t remember it being brutally cold; just cold. Of course, my memory might be fuzzy on it.

1980 was before my time and I don’t remember my parents talking about it.


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It was really cold in January 2004. I was a sophomore in High School. We had the super clipper in January that dropped like 8"+. Then some smaller clippers. It was like we kept getting clippers that weren't big enough to cancel school. 

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  On 1/1/2018 at 5:01 AM, nzucker said:

The winter of 76-77 was easiest the coldest though. January 1977 was BRUTAL. Lake Ontario has only frozen over twice...I believe it was Jan 1977 and Feb 1934. 

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Good shot at that by next Sunday. As cold as it is here it’s in the teens below zero up there. With the great South Bay mostly frozen I can’t see how a fresh water lake can hold out much longer. I was out there today and it was impressive. Also I took this pic at Captree where they did have a plowable snow Saturday. Looked over 3”

2D9040BB-9A04-4B9D-AEE0-8C6B9F8348A8.jpeg

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  On 1/1/2018 at 12:58 AM, North and West said:


You know, I was thinking about 2004 since it was cold here and I remember ice on the Hudson and playing hockey outside, but I don’t remember it being brutally cold; just cold. Of course, my memory might be fuzzy on it.

1980 was before my time and I don’t remember my parents talking about it.


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2015 was colder than 2014 so you should add that to your list.

 

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  On 1/1/2018 at 4:24 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Apparently the storm is a lost cause. 

Complete garbage. This is the exact trash that keeps good posters away. It happens over and over and over. The only time anyone should be claiming a threat is a lost cause is within 24 hours if all the guidence is in agreement. I’m really getting sick of it. 

To be fair it goes both ways.  

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It's easier to just dismiss it for now until it's actually still there 24 hrs before the event, just based on the pattern this year.

It also helps to temper expectations so people don't get disappointed.  

Snow or not it's going to have a huge impact in this area, with perhaps the coldest airmass we've seen since Jan 85/94.

 

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  On 1/1/2018 at 6:14 AM, Paragon said:

It's easier to just dismiss it for now until it's actually still there 24 hrs before the event, just based on the pattern this year.

It also helps to temper expectations so people don't get disappointed.  

Snow or not it's going to have a huge impact in this area, with perhaps the coldest airmass we've seen since Jan 85/94.

 

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Yeah that's a very dangerous airmass. Wind chill warnings for sure. 

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  On 1/1/2018 at 7:05 AM, nzucker said:

Yeah that's a very dangerous airmass. Wind chill warnings for sure. 

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I'm trying to figure out what it was about the 1980s that we had so many wind chill warnings back then, it was a regular thing every winter, and they would say wind chills of -40 to -60.  You never see that anymore.  Did they change the way the wind chill factor is calculated, vs how it was done back in the 80s?  You hardly even see -20 wind chills around here anymore and back then -20 wind chills were considered on the same level as a winter weather advisory lol.

 

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  On 1/1/2018 at 8:29 AM, Paragon said:

I'm trying to figure out what it was about the 1980s that we had so many wind chill warnings back then, it was a regular thing every winter, and they would say wind chills of -40 to -60.  You never see that anymore.  Did they change the way the wind chill factor is calculated, vs how it was done back in the 80s?  You hardly even see -20 wind chills around here anymore and back then -20 wind chills were considered on the same level as a winter weather advisory lol.

 

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Yes they changed the wind chill formula in November 2001 to better reflect the wind at the surface instead of 10m winds, and also to take into account the thermal properties of the human face more accurately. This reduced the low wind chills...

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Why is our windchill advisory criteria the same as upstate? I mean, how often do we actually see windchills in that range? That threshold just seems high for the metro area, NYC isn’t colder than Philadelphia (LGA is actually slightly warmer than PHL), and Cleveland and Pittsburgh are obviously colder than both NYC and Philadelphia.

Also, looking at this map, you’d think DC was 10 degrees warmer than here, when in reality it’s closer to 3-4 degrees.

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  On 1/1/2018 at 4:57 AM, nzucker said:

It was really cold in January 2004. I was a sophomore in High School. We had the super clipper in January that dropped like 8"+. Then some smaller clippers. It was like we kept getting clippers that weren't big enough to cancel school. 

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I miss getting frequent clippers and small events. This winter has more of that feel rather than the blockbuster scenarios of the last few years.

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  On 1/1/2018 at 5:01 AM, nzucker said:
The winter of 76-77 was easiest the coldest though. January 1977 was BRUTAL. Lake Ontario has only frozen over twice...I believe it was Jan 1977 and Feb 1934. 
Walked across the Great South Bay to the barrier islands off Amityville that year..

Brutal cold and incredibly thick ice.... never seen ice like that since than...

The current outbreak just may rival it.... also like this year's... Snow was limited....

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk

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  On 1/2/2018 at 12:07 AM, Mophstymeo said:

What I find so interesting about this storm threat is how divided meteorologists are on it -- ones who are seasoned and well-reasoned, not the fly-by-night kooks on FaceBook and other social media.

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The guidance is pointing to a highly complex setup. The interactions between multiple short waves and whether or not a low develops to the east of the initial storm center will be have a big role on the impacts. Whether or not a complete or partial phase takes place is uncertain. The latter has a higher probability of occurring. Neither scenario has a zero probability.

One should see the guidance begin to come into better agreement during the 1/2 0z and 1/3 0z runs. At the end of the range, there will probably be reasonable agreement. Nevertheless, given the complexity involved, there will likely be higher uncertainty than is usual at the timeframe involved.

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  On 1/2/2018 at 12:26 AM, donsutherland1 said:
The guidance is pointing to a highly complex setup. The interactions between multiple short waves and whether or not a low develops to the east of the initial storm center will be have a big role on the impacts. Whether or not a complete or partial phase takes place is uncertain. The latter has a higher probability of occurring. Neither scenario has a zero probability.
One should see the guidance begin to come into better agreement during the 1/2 0z and 1/3 0z runs. At the end of the range, there will probably be reasonable agreement. Nevertheless, given the complexity involved, there will likely be higher uncertainty than is usual at the timeframe involved.

Good analysis! I try to reason and temper expectations with my 7 year-old when Janice Huff is showing the RPM on-air and he thinks he can begin charging the neighbors to shovel on Thursday afternoon.


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  On 1/2/2018 at 12:30 AM, North and West said:


Good analysis! I try to reason and temper expectations with my 7 year-old when Janice Huff is showing the RPM on-air and he thinks he can begin charging the neighbors to shovel on Thursday afternoon.


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One has to do so. I have to do the same with my 6 year-old who is really wanting a big storm now.

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  On 1/2/2018 at 12:46 AM, North and West said:


“Well, it’s just like the last storm... which you don’t remember.”

He’s looking for a January 2016 repeat.


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That exact storm is not possible but a similar result is. As low of a probability as it is, it’s not off the table. If thing fully phases and heads up the cape cod canal it’s going to be on of the big ones

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