December 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread

[Stormlover74]

28 minutes ago, Paragon said:

What are the two dates for those projected snowstorms?  And what does it predict for the weather for the week between Christmas and New Years (let's say going from Dec 23 to Jan 1).

 

It has one around the 16th

[nzucker]

The GFS has an incredible block in the long range with 850s in western Alaska approaching 12C:

I wouldn't ordinarily post long-range GFS maps, but this is one of the most anomalous -EPO blocks on record.

[Isotherm]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Isotherm, how are you expecting the ongoing Mount Agung volcano eruption to possibly affect the AO once into Jan, Feb, Mar? I read that very high levels of SO2 from the eruption are being detected right now. The experts seem to be expecting a rather profound climate effect from it, with dropping global temps over the next several years as a result of this, seems to be a very significant, impressive event

 

At this point, the explosivity of the eruptions hasn't been strong enough to penetrate through the tropopause, so any climate effects will be nil, unless a stronger eruption occurs, sending the sulfates into the stratosphere.

[Paragon]

1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

 

At this point, the explosivity of the eruptions hasn't been strong enough to penetrate through the tropopause, so any climate effects will be nil, unless a stronger eruption occurs, sending the sulfates into the stratosphere.

Usually takes 2 years for that to have maximum impact anyway on a global scale.  Local impacts of course happen much sooner.

 

[MJO812]

The 2nd blast of cold air after the mid month snowstorm is more impressive than the 1st one on the gfs 

 

Wow

[Ericjcrash]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

The 2nd blast of cold air after the mid month snowstorm is more impressive than the 1st one on the gfs 

 

Wow

Fantasy of course but -10s in Kentucky . 

[jm1220]

Crazy pattern coming up and I think would definitely support a major storm early-mid month given the amplitude and depth of cold coming down. I’d like to see more ridging near Greenland show up to ensure that said major storm doesn’t ride inland. As Isotherm said though, the cold pattern shouldn’t be going anywhere and blocking should hopefully develop later this month. We’ll need that resistance to keep the track offshore. It’s a matter of when rather than if given the amplified pattern. 

[CIK62]

Next 8 days down to 44degs. average, or 4degs. AN.

[PB GFI]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The tropical convection pattern really favors this becoming one of the strongest -EPO/+PNA/-AO blocks which we have seen in December. This could produce a rare January in December cold pattern for us.

 

 

 

 

 

I agree man , this could be a 30 plus day period that we talk about here for a long time.

The first 12 days after the 5th will be brutal then both the weeklies and CFS run this into the end of the year and then some.

 

[MJO812]

This is going to be the coldest stretch that we have seen in a long time.

[SACRUS]

Recent Decembers N EWR

year--Dep--Snowfall--Precip

2016:  +1.2---3.4---2.91     (16 lowest 12/16)
2015:  +13.2--0.3--4.43     (33 lowest 12/6)
2014: +3.5---0.3---4..91     (23 lowest on 12/8)
2013:  +0.4--9.4---4.63      (17 lowest 12/13)
2012:  +4.6--1.9---5.05      (25 lowest 12/31)
2011: +6.0--0.0---4.51       (23 lowest 12/18)
2010: -3.7--24.5---4.04      (17 lowest 12/10)
2009: -1.0--13.2---6.97      (16,16 lowest 12/29,30)
2008: +0.8--8.3---5.88       (12 lowest 12/22)
2007: -0.1--3.9----4.78       (20 lowest 12/2)
2006: +6.2--T-----2.19        (18 lowest 12/8)
2005: -2.8--11.1---3.65      (11 lowest 12/14)
2004: +0.1--1.6---3.37      (10,10 lowest 12/20,21)
2003: +0.2--21.0--5.11     (20 lowest 12/3)
2002: -1.5--10.0---3.70    (18 lowest 12/4)
2001: +7.0--0.0----2.01    (19 lowest 12/31)
2000: -5.9--14.9---3.24    (12 lowest on 12/23)
1999: +2.8--T-----2.95      (18 lowest 12/25)
1998: +5.3--0.1---1.04     (17 lowest 12/311)
1997: +1.0--2.0---4.11     (17 lowest 12/31)
1996: +3.6--T------6.86     (14 lowest 12/31)
1995: -5.0--10.0---2.15   (14,14 lowest 12/10,1)
1994: +4.7--0.0---2.36    (20,20 lowest 12/30,31)

[SACRUS]

11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

This is going to be the coldest stretch that we have seen in a long time.

Either since 2010 or 2000 is very possible.

 

Lowest temps in EWR those years - based off the latest guidance peak of the cold could yield temps in single digits on a few occasions.  baring a wamrup the last few days of DEc - it looks like we'll fall closer to 2000.

2010: 17
2000: 12

[uncle W]

Nyc has not seen single digit temperatures in December since 1989, 88 and 87...will it happen this year?...

[Vice-Regent]

35 minutes ago, uncle W said:

Nyc has not seen single digit temperatures in December since 1989, 88 and 87...will it happen this year?...

Yes, but for different reasons. We must not lose sight of the bigger picture.

[MCBAMA]

Hey guy and gals, I am new to this weather forum. My soon to be wife will be traveling to NYC 12-17 to 12-23 from Alabama, for our honeymoon. I have been watching the potential winter storm for this time period, I was wondering if anyone could give me a few pointers for what to watch weather wise as your weather is a lot different than ours. TIA

[TriPol]

4 minutes ago, MCBAMA said:

Hey guy and gals, I am new to this weather forum. My soon to be wife will be traveling to NYC 12-17 to 12-23 from Alabama, for our honeymoon. I have been watching the potential winter storm for this time period, I was wondering if anyone could give me a few pointers for what to watch weather wise as your weather is a lot different than ours. TIA

Watch for yellow snow. Definitely don't eat yellow snow.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days still averaging 44degs., or about 4 or 5 degrees AN.

November 11th., @ 24/38 is still coldest day so far, but starting Dec. 11 it should fall.

[PB GFI]

On 12/3/2017 at 6:01 AM, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days still averaging 44degs., or about 4 or 5 degrees AN.

November 11th., @ 24/38 is still coldest day so far, but starting Dec. 11 it should fall.

By the time we get to day 8 everyone will be N to BN for the month 

[CIK62]

Best opportunity for snow is the 9th., but only GFS has it---EURO and GEM do not.

In addition these 3 models differ by 30 degrees F on the 850mb T near the 13th.

[PB GFI]

December will offer multiple snow chances.

 

The models will have a hard time keying on which SW produces as confluence in patterns like this hinder a clear picture in the LR.

SWs will show up and disappear only to come back late.

Thats the nature of these patterns / very cold / very active.

[bluewave]

The EPS continues to come in stronger with the -EPO/+PNA/-AO block that will produce the cold conditions here. The November phase of this extreme pattern produced the strongest block near the Aleutians on record for November going back to 1950. The chart below shows how much more intense this was that anything before it. 

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS continues to come in stronger with the -EPO/+PNA/-AO block that will produce the very cold conditions here. The November phase of this extreme pattern produced the strongest block near the Aleutians on record for November going back to 1950. The chart below shows how much more intense this was that anything before it. 

 

 

 

 

That really  helps drive the ridge poleward. The ridge connects from S.California all the way to the Caspian.

Looks like a large scale cold / stormy pattern.

A December that we will talk about for some time 

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

That really  helps drive the ridge poleward. The ridge connects from S.California all the way to the Caspian.

Looks like a large scale cold / stormy pattern.

A December that we will talk about for some time 

I really hope we are talking about a December to remember as far as cold/snow and not remembering record cold overwhelming the near-perfect pattern with many close-call storm  misses.

Fwiw to the poster that said only the GFS has the Friday system that is not 100% true.....the NAVGEM is even more amped and farther West than the GFS. I mentioned in another thread this model shouldnt be taken verbatim at this range but being it is generally the most progressive model yet is showing a hit with the least progressive look or late week should at least be noted. Sometimes the NAVGEM can be useful in raising the red flag at this range when other guidance is struggling with too much energy moving around......sometimes.

 

eta: this was based off 0Z NAVGEM but 6z has nudged East a hair right on cue lol

[PB GFI]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I really hope we are talking about a December to remember as far as cold/snow and not remembering record cold overwhelming the near-perfect pattern with many close-call storm  misses.

Fwiw to the poster that said only the GFS has the Friday system that is not 100% true.....the NAVGEM is even more amped and farther West than the GFS. I mentioned in another thread this model shouldnt be taken verbatim at this range but being it is generally the most progressive model yet is showing a hit with the least progressive look or late week should at least be noted. Sometimes the NAVGEM can be useful in raising the red flag at this range when other guidance is struggling with too much energy moving around......sometimes.

 

eta: this was based off 0Z NAVGEM but 6z has nudged East a hair right on cue lol

Yeh Ralph I think it's a real anomalous month in terms of negative departures as well as accumulating now / white Christmas .

 

The 9th is real , just look at the jet and upward motion 

The EPS digs the SW in after that departs 

[PB GFI]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It's looking like the heaviest snowfall potential here will happen around mid to late December as the MJO swings into the snowier phases for stronger coastal developments. So anything before then will just be an appetizer before the main course.

 

 

 

The GFS are stronger in the colder phases and did just best the Euro in its phase 5 prediction from last week 

The Euro drove it into the null phase too quick 

Could be missing the amplitude again 

[uncle W]

the AO/NAO/PNA all look good as we move into mid month...I'd like to see the AO go to a -4 sd...some members go lower but a few are around neutral for a day or two...Dec. 1995's lowest daily AO number -4.3 sd came on the 19th...there was a major snowstorm in progress at the time...

[bluewave]

On December 3, 2017 at 9:19 AM, PB GFI said:

The GFS are stronger in the colder phases and did just best the Euro in its phase 5 prediction from last week 

The Euro drove it into the null phase too quick 

Could be missing the amplitude again 

Here are the enhanced BM tracks with the MJO 7-8 phases in the new study. 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0434.1

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Here are the enhanced BM tracks with the MJO 7-8 phases in the new study. The study shows a 7-10 day lag. It's nice to have a study confirm pretty much what we already knew on the forum.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0434.1

 

 

 

Awesome stuff man 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, PB GFI said:

Awesome stuff man 

It's nice to see such a detailed study going back that far in time.

 

[bluewave]

On December 3, 2017 at 10:20 AM, PB GFI said:

Posted away , with credit to you.

You're a fan fav.

The 2 weeks leading up to Christmas could be fun to track 

Klotzbach does some great work with all his MJO papers and seasonal hurricane forecasting. The MJO study seems to match our experience. While we have had decent snows in various MJO phases, seems like the biggest events of the bunch are close to and after 7-8.