December 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread

[Neblizzard]

14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

As Forky pointed out though the -NAO is more or less non existent there.  You can get a big storm in that setup but you risk a track too close or inland with the ridge that far west 

That’s taking the model verbatim. Other models do show a true -NAO..I’ll take my chances with an -EPO and -AO any day of the week.  

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

If the EPS is right we don't have a -NAO by day 15 and the ridge axis is way west of where we need it to be.  

 

I wouldn't say way west.  It's a bit east of awful territory but who knows where it'll verify 

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

I wouldn't say way west.  It's a bit east of awful territory but who knows where it'll verify 

Give me Boise (give or take) or give me death!

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

15 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

cold and dry in between cutters

Yup. Not much interesting events until the 3rd week of December.

[Rjay]

7 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

That’s taking the model verbatim. Other models do show a true -NAO..I’ll take my chances with an -EPO and -AO any day of the week.  

One thing that image does show is it's looks to be dam cold during that time frame with some relaxation if there's a cutter or 2.

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

One thing that image does show is it's looks to be dam cold during that time frame with some relaxation if there's a cutter or 2.

it's not a textbook ku pattern but we can do OK with well timed waves. i prefer ku's though

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

A lot of folks on this forum never learn. The most important ingredient for snow in the coastal plain is the cold. Get the cold and you'll find the snow. Could be a clipper, a mauler, a coastal, could be a mix, slop, powder, who knows. But whining like a little girl when a pattern before Christmas looks to be delivering a good dose of cold is ridiculous. Take your cold and I guarantee you 90% of the time you'll get the snow. With the pattern being depicted, which should deliver BN temperatures for a 10 day-2 week period in December, I'll set the bar now at 4" of snow in NYC by 12/20. I think we'll find a way to get it, and who wouldn't sign up for that? Or do you want last year's 70s back?

[Paragon]

12 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Give me Boise (give or take) or give me death!

Our area does have a smaller margin of error than areas to our west (including the city.)

 

[Rjay]

5 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

A lot of folks on this forum never learn. The most important ingredient for snow in the coastal plain is the cold. Get the cold and you'll find the snow. Could be a clipper, a mauler, a coastal, could be a mix, slop, powder, who knows. But whining like a little girl when a pattern before Christmas looks to be delivering a good dose of cold is ridiculous. Take your cold and I guarantee you 90% of the time you'll get the snow. With the pattern being depicted, which should deliver BN temperatures for a 10 day-2 week period in December, I'll set the bar now at 4" of snow in NYC by 12/20. I think we'll find a way to get it, and who wouldn't sign up for that? Or do you want last year's 70s back?

Who's whining?  We're discussing the pattern progged by the EPS in the long range.  

[Paragon]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see what the Euro monthly has on December 7th. On November 7th the Euro had the strong December block over NW Canada and Alaska like the EPS is moving to for December. The January and February was a retrogression of the block back to the Aleutians.

So basically according to that, December would have the most negative temperature anomalies of the three winter months, Chris?

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that's what the Euro monthlies had back on November 7th. Perhaps we can extend the December cold into mid-January before the ridge pulls back to the west. December 7th should provide some hints when the new monthlies come out.

That is typical of most La Niñas anyway.  There have been a few that featured a very cold February but those tended to be SSW induced for the most part 

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That is typical of most La Niñas anyway.  There have been a few that featured a very cold February but those tended to be SSW induced for the most part 

Each ENSO event since 09-10 has been a new and extreme variation on an old theme. About the only similarities to the past have been the monthly temperature departure progressions. La Nina coldest departures early on followed by rising departures during the second half of winter. The reverse for El Nino with early warm departures shifting colder later on.

[uncle W]

most of the la nina winters with February as the best wintry month had below average snowfall for the season...

1949-50...

1954-55...

1961-62...mei la nina...

1971-72...

1973-74...

1974-75...

1984-85...

1985-86...

 

 

[PB GFI]

You don't get many cutters with such an anomaly in the EP.

Strong -EPO s yield arctic waves that actually favor the coast.

When you have such a strong PNA you need the ridge position centered correctly  and  the trough axis downstrean does the rest.

The NAO disappears on the EPS day 13 to 15 but by that time the vortex has crashed in and  its just a suppressed storm track at that range.

Once the vortex relaxes all you need is 1 shortwave , just 1 

We will see what materializes.

[danstorm]

17 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

You don't get many cutters with such an anomaly in the EP.

Strong -EPO s yield arctic waves that actually favor the coast.

When you have such a strong PNA you need the ridge position centered correctly  and  the trough axis downstrean does the rest.

The NAO disappears on the EPS day 13 to 15 but by that time the vortex has crashed in and  its just a suppressed storm track at that range.

Once the vortex relaxes all you need is 1 shortwave , just 1 

We will see what materializes.

Indeed, and you don't need a particularly strong one.

13-14 - in a similar pattern to what's being depicted - saw several 4-8/10" storms on ~0.4-0.5" of liquid with temps in the single digits/teens.  Mostly, these storms snuck up on us, being shown as suppressed or moisture starved in the medium range.

I distinctly remember SN+ with a temperature of 7 during the wee hours in Forest Hills.  We squeezed 10" of pixie dust.  My first child arrived that March, my second August 16.  No more midnight traipes for me!

 

[PB GFI]

17 minutes ago, danstorm said:

Indeed, and you don't need a particularly strong one.

13-14 - in a similar pattern to what's being depicted - saw several 4-8/10" storms on ~0.4-0.5" of liquid with temps in the single digits/teens.  Mostly, these storms snuck up on us, being shown as suppressed or moisture starved in the medium range.

I distinctly remember SN+ with a temperature of 7 during the wee hours in Forest Hills.  We squeezed 10" of pixie dust.  My first child arrived that March, my second August 16.  No more midnight traipes for me!

 

 I like the .5 ish type because that was exactly the types we saw in 13/14.

Cold and Dry is always possible but I will take my chances with cold and hope it's a solid 2 week period.

 Then lets see if we catch something on the backside 

The main ingredient will be present

[Paragon]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Each ENSO event since 09-10 has been a new and extreme variation on an old theme. About the only similarities to the past have been the monthly temperature departure progressions. La Nina coldest departures early on followed by rising departures during the second half of winter. The reverse for El Nino with early warm departures shifting colder later on.

There are also some that start cold, have a big January thaw and then go back to cold and snow in February and March (and sometimes even early April.)

 

[Paragon]

2 hours ago, danstorm said:

Indeed, and you don't need a particularly strong one.

13-14 - in a similar pattern to what's being depicted - saw several 4-8/10" storms on ~0.4-0.5" of liquid with temps in the single digits/teens.  Mostly, these storms snuck up on us, being shown as suppressed or moisture starved in the medium range.

I distinctly remember SN+ with a temperature of 7 during the wee hours in Forest Hills.  We squeezed 10" of pixie dust.  My first child arrived that March, my second August 16.  No more midnight traipes for me!

 

What was the big difference between 13-14 and 14-15?  I remember both as cold and snowy with the latter more extreme.  But both had strong Pacific side blocking.

 

[SnoSki14]

Another shock to the system after a solid benign stretch after the mid November arctic outbreak. 

I don't think it'll be cold and dry either, main arctic axis is to our west which gives us some room for storminess near East coast.

[uncle W]

back when I started weather watching December 1962 had a week of below freezing max's and other arctic outbreaks during the month and winter...

[donsutherland1]

At this point, even as I read from earlier posts about concerns about a "cold and dry" December featuring cutters, that typically is not the norm for Decembers that feature the kind of extended AO-PNA blocking that is currently modeled. Even as there are exceptions e.g., 1985 when just 0.9" snow fell, most such December cases featured 6" or more snow. About a third of such cases saw 10" or more snowfall in December. These figures do not necessary suggest KU-type storms, but they reflect higher snowfall that results from increased opportunities for snow due to sufficient cold.

Despite the CFSv2's forecast of a warmer than normal December as of right now, my guess is that December will probably have a mean temperature around 35.0° +/- 0.5° (2°-3° below the monthly normal) with a fairly high probability of 6" or more monthly snowfall (vs. the monthly average of 4.8"). The potential for 8" or more exists, but that would assume that the strong blocking would last through most of December once it takes hold. It's too soon to be sure about that.

Perhaps I'm a dissenting voice on this December idea, but I see a lot to be encouraged about--far more than for recent Decembers.

[CIK62]

First fantasy storm of season showing up for Dec. 12-13 (rain to snow) and another by the 16th.

While meanwhile it is 61 degrees here now.

[Paragon]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

At this point, even as I read from earlier posts about concerns about a "cold and dry" December featuring cutters, that typically is not the norm for Decembers that feature the kind of extended AO-PNA blocking that is currently modeled. Even as there are exceptions e.g., 1985 when just 0.9" snow fell, most such December cases featured 6" or more snow. About a third of such cases saw 10" or more snowfall in December. These figures do not necessary suggest KU-type storms, but they reflect higher snowfall that results from increased opportunities for snow due to sufficient cold.

Despite the CFSv2's forecast of a warmer than normal December as of right now, my guess is that December will probably have a mean temperature around 35.0° +/- 0.5° (2°-3° below the monthly normal) with a fairly high probability of 6" or more monthly snowfall (vs. the monthly average of 4.8"). The potential for 8" or more exists, but that would assume that the strong blocking would last through most of December once it takes hold. It's too soon to be sure about that.

Perhaps I'm a dissenting voice on this December idea, but I see a lot to be encouraged about--far more than for recent Decembers.

Don I remember your earlier forecast for 2010-11 and I think what resulted is influencing your current forecast, which is a good thing; the more data we obtain, the better our forecasts get!

 

 

[Paragon]

Let's make no bones about it, December 1989 sucked!  I'd rather have weather like what we have today if it isn't going to snow.  True winter months with both cold and snow that are light years ahead of December 1989 were January 1994, December 2003/January 2004 and February 2015!

 

[Paragon]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is going to be one of the strongest December Arctic outbreaks into the Eastern US in years starting just  after the 5th. You know that it will get really cold when the EPS has to play catch up with the cold like this. The EPS just keeps getting stronger and stronger with the NE PAC block longer range.

 

New run

Old run

 

 

 

 

We haven't talked about this particular winter much, but I'm hoping for the kind of cold we had in 2003-04.

 

Snow and Cold was an amazing combo that winter.

 

[SnowGoose69]

9 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Let's make no bones about it, December 1989 sucked!  I'd rather have weather like what we have today if it isn't going to snow.  True winter months with both cold and snow that are light years ahead of December 1989 were January 1994, December 2003/January 2004 and February 2015!

 

December 89 was just insane.  The AO and NAO from my recollection were never that strongly negative that month.  I think we just had a crazy western ridge and probably significant cross polar flow.  The ridge though was often centered too far west and or the cold was too strong so the pattern was suppressed and in 1-2 other cases storms tracked too far west  

[Stormlover74]

30 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Let's make no bones about it, December 1989 sucked!  I'd rather have weather like what we have today if it isn't going to snow.  True winter months with both cold and snow that are light years ahead of December 1989 were January 1994, December 2003/January 2004 and February 2015!

 

Awful month. The whole year of 1989 sucked except for the thanksgiving storm. Miss after miss, disappointment after disappointment

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Awful month. The whole year of 1989 sucked except for the thanksgiving storm. Miss after miss, disappointment after disappointment

February and December were the worst, two awful forecast busts lol.  Watching ACY get 20" (2/89) while we got virga wasn't pretty either.  And DC got buried in 12/89 while we got rain.

[donsutherland1]

34 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Don I remember your earlier forecast for 2010-11 and I think what resulted is influencing your current forecast, which is a good thing; the more data we obtain, the better our forecasts get!

 

 

I am thinking 2000-01 with an opportunity for something closer to 2010-11. Everything seems on course right now. A snowy December would provide strong confirmation that I am on the right track.

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

I am thinking 2000-01 with an opportunity for something closer to 2010-11. Everything seems on course right now. A snowy December would provide strong confirmation that I am on the right track.

2000-01 had a great opportunity to be as good or better than 2010-11 if the big March 2001 bust had not occurred.  I noticed many are going for a snowy/cold March this time around.