Neblizzard Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 47 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The GFS/GEFS especially has had this tendency for years now. It blows up massive -NAOs/Greenland blocks in the long range, only to either back off big time or loose it altogether as we move forward in time That’s about the 10th time this fall you reminded us, keep up the good work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 33 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I've seen it do the exact opposite also with a +NAO that it blows up in the LR and backs off in time to a -NAO. It works both ways. It’s been wavering the last few days. We don’t want a powerful -NAO anyway as it leads to suppression. I’ll take a robust -EPO and -AO anyday of the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Wow. Never thought I'd see the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 We have seen great patterns with just a +pna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 58 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: Wow. Never thought I'd see the day. Can you explain this to me like you're speaking with your parents? Asking... for a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, North and West said: Can you explain this to me like you're speaking with your parents? Asking... for a friend. The CFS actually figured out the Polar Vortex displacement and elongation process for the first 10 days of December. This mean that we will have blocking over the arctic region for a good while. Very cold air for at least the next couple of weeks or so. Maybe snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 1 minute ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: The CFS actually figured out the Polar Vortex displacement and elongation process for the first 10 days of December. This mean that we will have blocking over the arctic region for a good while. Very cold air for at least the next couple of weeks or so. Maybe snowfall. Thanks. tl;dr: not guaranteeing snow, but the right airmass should be in place for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Just now, North and West said: Thanks. tl;dr: not guaranteeing snow, but the right airmass should be in place for it? Yes. We just need a proper trough/ridge axis placement. So pretty much the Eastern two-thirds of the US will be in the freezer through Mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Just now, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: Yes. We just need a proper trough/ridge axis placement. So pretty much the Eastern two-thirds of the US will be in the freezer through Mid December. Does it still look dry at the point, or is it too early? Last time I looked at the ten-day, there's no moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, North and West said: Does it still look dry at the point, or is it too early? Last time I looked at the ten-day, there's no moisture. There will be some moisture, but the timing for the trough and ridge placement/intensity won't be sufficient enough for significant snowfall (basically flurries or rainfall). At this point. If say anything before the 15th will be minor. Anything past the 15th may be noteworthy. If we can get the PV over Southern Canada to split by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 1 hour ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: Wow. Never thought I'd see the day. The CFS tends to do better at this time range for the following month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 48 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: The CFS actually figured out the Polar Vortex displacement and elongation process for the first 10 days of December. This mean that we will have blocking over the arctic region for a good while. Very cold air for at least the next couple of weeks or so. Maybe snowfall. The stratospheric warming/vortex displacement depicted on the CFS is almost certainly why the 12z GFS is honing in on a massive Alaska block (-EPO) in the long range. 582dm heights over Anchorage with +5C 850s up to the North Slope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 This is starting to look like a version of what happened in November and December 2013 with the NE PAC blocking pattern. Notice how an Aleutians block in November 2013 shifted further to the east in December. This November the Aleutians block was much stronger and set a new record for November. The extreme block is forecast to shift further east than 2013 this time and end up more over NW Canada and Alaska. The December 2013 block produced a -13 departure at International Falls. This December is also forecast to have stronger blocking building further east to around Greenland than 2013 did. \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: This is starting to look like a version of what happened in November and December 2013 with the NE PAC blocking pattern. Notice how an Aleutians block in November 2013 shifted further to the east in December. This November the Aleutians block was much stronger and set a new record for November. The extreme block is forecast to shift further east than 2013 this time and end up more over NW Canada and Alaska. The December 2013 block produced a -13 departure at International Falls. This December is also forecast to have stronger blocking building further east to around Greenland than 2013 did. \ That's better for us, Chris? In 2013-2014 we had a lot of changeover events so a further east block should force more of a coastal track? Maybe a hybrid of 2013-14 and 2014-15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: That's better for us, Chris? In 2013-2014 we had a lot of changeover events so a further east block should force more of a coastal track? Maybe a hybrid of 2013-14 and 2014-15? It's a colder pattern for us than December 2013 was since the mean trough position will shift closer to our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: It's a colder pattern for us than December 2013 was since the mean trough position will shift closer to our area. I wonder what that will mean rolling the pattern forward into January and February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 This is some pretty good agreement at day 10 from the EPS, GEFS and GEPS at day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: This is some pretty good agreement at day 10 from the EPS, GEFS and GEPS at day 10. It’s game time. The problem is I’m not seeing anyway to blow up nor’easters. Lols like the best we are going to do is WAA events with help from the WAR. Great for the interior but could easily fail at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It’s game time. The problem is I’m not seeing anyway to blow up nor’easters. Lols like the best we are going to do is WAA events with help from the WAR. Great for the interior but could easily fail at the coast. I have no idea what will end up happening but you need to give these patterns time to develop and then mature. If you're looking for a KU you will need to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: I have no idea what will end up happening but you need to give these patterns time to develop and then mature. If you're looking for a KU you will need to wait. Going by the 2000-01 and 2010-11 standards we had a cold pattern in place for weeks before it reached its full potential late in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: As Forky pointed out though the -NAO is more or less non existent there. You can get a big storm in that setup but you risk a track too close or inland with the ridge that far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: As Forky pointed out though the -NAO is more or less non existent there. You can get a big storm in that setup but you risk a track too close or inland with the ridge that far west cold and dry in between cutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 15 minutes ago, Paragon said: Going by the 2000-01 and 2010-11 standards we had a cold pattern in place for weeks before it reached its full potential late in the month. We needed the blocking to relax a bit first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: cold and dry in between cutters Pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: cold and dry in between cutters traditional 80s pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: cold and dry in between cutters I call BS. You're not going to get a KU storm with this and anything that amplifies is likely to cut, but its a great look for light accumulating snow. Which is pretty damn good for pre-Christmas these days in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Rjay said: We needed the blocking to relax a bit first I guess that's why we're looking for that closer to the end of the month, when temps are supposed to go above normal around the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Just now, Drz1111 said: I call BS. You're not going to get a KU storm with this and anything that amplifies is likely to cut, but its a great look for light accumulating snow. Which is pretty damn good for pre-Christmas these days in these parts. yeah looks really nice and not much travel disruptions. traffic in the city is disgusting even with good weather we don't need the travel disruption this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: I guess that's why we're looking for that closer to the end of the month, when temps are supposed to go above normal around the new year. If the EPS is right we don't have a -NAO by day 15 and the ridge axis is way west of where we need it to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.