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December 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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At 10 pm, New York City's temperature had fallen to 10°. That's the coldest December temperature since the thermometer dipped to 10° on December 27, 1993. If it holds at midnight, it would be the second coldest ball drop temperature on record. The record is 1°, set a century ago during winter 1917-18.

Finally, there is some chance that the temperature could fall into the single digits before midnight. The last single digit reading in December was 8° on December 27, 1989.

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12 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Some of the East Rockaway small inlets were already frozen up on Friday. There will be ice all through Reynolds Channel in another week at this rate. 

See, that's why people should be ice surfing :) Use ice as your surfboard!

I'm wondering why we don't get wind chill warnings down here anymore.

Back in the 80s we had those almost every winter, and wind chills regularly went down to -60.

Did they calculate wind chill factor differently back then that resulted in more extreme wind chills?

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36 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Happy New Year folks! -7F is a great way to start off 2018. 

It'll be even better next weekend when you're -15 and we're -2 ;-)

I don't even care if it snows or not, big snows have been so commonplace lately, let's go for a cold record!

 

Happy New Years everyone! :)

 

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 10 pm, New York City's temperature had fallen to 10°. That's the coldest December temperature since the thermometer dipped to 10° on December 27, 1993. If it holds at midnight, it would be the second coldest ball drop temperature on record. The record is 1°, set a century ago during winter 1917-18.

Finally, there is some chance that the temperature could fall into the single digits before midnight. The last single digit reading in December was 8° on December 27, 1989.

Looks like we got to 9 just before midnight!  JFK too.

Happy New Years everyone and here's to the best year yet!

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37 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yesterday's low temperature of 9° was the coldest December temperature since December 27, 1989 when the mercury fell to 8°. December 2017 had a monthly average temperature of 35.0°, which was 2.5° below normal.

We should have consolidated these two arctic weeks into a single week, instead of splitting them between December and January. The monthly departure would have been impressive.

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On page 32, I ran a table for a statistical "snowfall potential scale" (https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50504-december-2017-discussions-observations-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4729612). We've concluded an 11 consecutive day period (12/25 through 1/5) where the figure was at or above 3.  The climatological probability of snowfall (1981-2010 base period) was 12% for that timeframe. It remains to be seen whether the statistical breakdown is useful in a forecasting environment or if it merely looks good from a hindcasting standpoint similar to the early promise shown between the SAI-predominant seasonal AO state.

 

The numbers were: Days: 11; Measurable snow events: 2 (18% of days in the period); 4" or greater snow events: 1 (9% of days in the period); total snowfall during the period: 10.5".  No sustained periods of such high figures are likely over the next 10 days if the preponderance of guidance is accurate. However, Sunday-Monday (1/7-8) would come out between 3 and 4 and it coincides with a forecast AO-/PNA+ combination (a combination that is associated with an above climatological probability of snowfall in January for the 1950 through 2017 period), so the idea of at least some measurable snow for late Monday-Monday night appears to be on the table.

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