December 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread

[donsutherland1]

31 minutes ago, frd said:

I love reading your posts as always. If I may ask a question, do you see any indications that later in Jan and Feb of a wetter pattern developing, or do you forsee below normal precip?

At one point with the MJO it appeared we were going to get more STJ action, but that has faded the last away the last four days. Thanks Don.   

Climatology favors precipitation returning to near normal levels by February, especially during La Niña events following September-December precipitation that is 1 standard deviation or more below the historic mean.

[frd]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Climatology favors precipitation returning to near normal levels by February, especially during La Niña events following September-December precipitation that is 1 standard deviation or more below the historic mean.

Thanks Don . 

[JerseyWx]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Only 3 days in Feb 2015. The longest streak since 2010 has been 5 days in Jan 14, Feb 14, and Jan 13. So we should have a decent ice build up on local waterways by the first week of the New Year.

Thanks for the response.  I agree, there will definitely be widespread ice by next week.

[donsutherland1]

The 12z GFS MOS shows a high temperature of 19° for NYC on January 1. The last time NYC had a high temperature below 20° was February 14, 2016 when the maximum temperature was 15°. Although the operational GFS shows 11° as the coldest reading on the 12z run (which matches the MOS figure), the potential for at least one single-digit reading in NYC remains fairly high. Should there be snow cover going into the New Year, a single-digit reading would be very likely. The GFS currently remains an outlier among the guidance in suggesting that the City will have no snow cover going into 2018.

[SnoSki14]

That's a dangerously cold looking ball-drop forecast for the city. Temps could be in the low teens with a decent breeze and windchills at or below zero. 

Should be one of the coldest in a very long time.

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's a dangerously cold looking ball-drop forecast for the city. Temps could be in the low teens with a decent breeze and windchills at or below zero. 

Should be one of the coldest in a very long time.

I will be curious to see how many people are there if that indeed verifies...

[donsutherland1]

This morning, International Falls, MN had a record low temperature of -37°. The previous daily record was -32°, which was set in 1924. Detroit had a record-tying -4° temperature. The record was set in 1925.

[ILoveWinter]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This morning, International Falls, MN had a record low temperature of -37°. The previous daily record was -32°, which was set in 1924. Detroit had a record-tying -4° temperature. The record was set in 1925.

Though -37 is certainly nothing to sneeze at, I'm surprised it's a record for them considering their all time record low of -55! Talk about a PV.

[the_other_guy]

Im going to say late 90s there was a brutally cold and windy NYE. Dick Clark was all bundled up and kept saying it was 10 degrees (it was actually a bit warmer). No effect on crowd size.

 

I believe it was 1998

[Stormlover74]

Just now, jfklganyc said:

Im going to say late 90s there was a brutally cold and windy NYE. Dick Clark was all bundled up and kept saying it was 10 degrees (it was actually a bit warmer). No effect on crowd size.

 

I believe it was 1998

NYE 97 was frigid, Ironic considering a few days later we were pushing 70 and that was of course the dreaded super nino winter

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Thanks for the response.  I agree, there will definitely be widespread ice by next week.

Looks like we can extend to 8 days or more into next week. This would be the longest since the 9 day run in January 2005.

[SnoSki14]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like we can extend to 8 days or more into next week. This would be the longest since the 9 day run in January 2005.

Cold pattern could overstay its welcome, I see Euro trying to reload the -EPO in the LR too. 

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Cold pattern could overstay its welcome, I see Euro trying to reload the -EPO in the LR too. 

It's not a surprise that the EPS and even GEFS are trending more negative with the EPO longer range given how low the index has been since November. But both of the ensemble groups begin to pull the -EPO ridge further west after the first week of January.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Cold pattern could overstay its welcome, I see Euro trying to reload the -EPO in the LR too. 

Weeklies showed that also

[White Gorilla]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

NYE 97 was frigid, Ironic considering a few days later we were pushing 70 and that was of course the dreaded super nino winter 

I remember two brutally cold NYE in succession - 96-97 and 97-98.  Torched shortly after in both years. 

[JerseyWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like we can extend to 8 days or more into next week. This would be the longest since the 9 day run in January 2005.

Yeah this is a very impressive cold shot, especially for those of us inland.  Many nights in the single digits coming up.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

56 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

I remember two brutally cold NYE in succession - 96-97 and 97-98.  Torched shortly after in both years. 

I think it was 97 that we had freezing drizzle and 19. That wound up being the coldest of the winter. Seems like baby stuff compared to what we have coming this year

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, JerseyWx said:

Yeah this is a very impressive cold shot, especially for those of us inland.  Many nights in the single digits coming up.

When you consider the average lows are in the teens this time of year Idon't find it quite as impressive as others seem to. Give me several mornings of sub zero and I'll take notice, single digits are expected in HV.

[Eduardo]

23 hours ago, bluewave said:

This will probably be our coldest stretch of the whole winter.

 

 

 

 

 

Do you mean in terms of severity or duration (or both)?  If the latter, I think you are probably right, but can we rule out the possibility of reaching a lower actual temperature at some point later in the winter?  After the fleeting subzero readings in the middle of the 2015-16 super Niño during February with no snow cover, I have a tough time ever ruling anything out on that front.

On the whole, we probably thaw for a bit, but I feel like, unlike 2010-11, winter comes back in a meaningful way during late January/early February.  In recent years, once that -EPO gets established, it doesn't stay suppressed for too long....

[donsutherland1]

Today's high temperature in NYC was 24°. That's the coldest high temperature since 1/9/2017 and coldest December maximum reading since 12/14/2010. Both dates had high temperatures of 23°.

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

When you consider the average lows are in the teens this time of year I don't find it quite as impressive as others seem to. Give me several mornings of sub zero and I'll take notice, single digits are expected in HV.

Yes, I agree to some extent.  However, at least for my location and specifically NYC, this cold snap is impressive not because of the actual low temps, but rather the duration.  In this respect, there will be more consecutive days below 32° than Feb. 2015 had.  I can't speak for your area though.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

8 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Yes, I agree to some extent.  However, at least for my location and specifically NYC, this cold snap is impressive not because of the actual low temps, but rather the duration.  In this respect, there will be more consecutive days below 32° than Feb. 2015 had.  I can't speak for your area though.

because of the duration I agree, or at least the duration we are all expecting.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

When you consider the average lows are in the teens this time of year Idon't find it quite as impressive as others seem to. Give me several mornings of sub zero and I'll take notice, single digits are expected in HV.

Similar to when we get extended periods of AN weather, it's impressive because of the duration, not the intensity. The coldest lows should be at the start of the new year but even then they'll probably be in the 8-10F range, which isn't record breaking. 

However it's very rare to see highs below 30F for a 7+ day stretch. 

This should be the longest duration of cold weather this winter but it's possible we see the coldest temperatures later in January or even February.

The ice build up will be really interesting to see, could we see something like in Feb 15. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

22 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

because of the duration I agree, or at least the duration we are all expecting.

24 for a high today in the park with sunny sky’s. That’s pretty solidly cold. If we can get some periods of light winds you guys will get below zero as will places like west Hampton and Toms River 

[gravitylover]

I'd like to see the ice get good and thick and last all winter. It's been a long time since we've had ice from December to March here in the LHV. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I think that the La Nina forcing pulling west now in the Pacific toward the Maritime Continent will cause the future -EPO intervals to reload further west. My guess is that the more west based -EPO intervals during the second half of the winter won't be as cold as we are seeing through the first week of January. The WPAC forcing in 13-14 was able to run the table since the ENSO was only cold neutral instead of actual La Nina. 

Very good point. If the tropical convective forcing moves to the maritime continent in early January (i.e. classic La Niña), which seems likely, then that would force the -EPO ridging we are currently seeing to retrograde west and a more typical Niña Aleutian ridge will setup

[Neblizzard]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I think that the La Nina forcing pulling west now in the Pacific toward the Maritime Continent will cause the future -EPO intervals to reload further west. My guess is that the more west based -EPO intervals during the second half of the winter won't be as cold as we are seeing through the first week of January. The WPAC forcing in 13-14 was able to run the table since the ENSO was only cold neutral instead of actual La Nina. 

It still remains to be seen whether this La Niña peaks at weak or low end moderate.  This will have major implications going forward and how the tropical forcing in the pacific responds.  The next few weeks will be telling.   If it indeed pulls west and the Atlantic doesn’t cooperate expect a lot of inland runners for the second half of the winter.  

[donsutherland1]

Even as the GFS is essentially bone dry through January 7, the pattern during the December 29-January 7 period is one that has had an above climatological frequency of measurable snow events (1950-2016). The implied number for the 10-day period would be 2.

This does not necessarily mean big events, just measurable ones. The 12z EPS still has a mean snowfall figure of about 1" in NYC (somewhat more to the north and east of the City). The 18z GGEM had a 1"-2" snowfall for NYC with an area of 2"-3" across parts of Long Island. The extended RGEM had about 0.5" for NYC. So, at least as of this evening, I still think a light snowfall is more likely than not for NYC. There remains some possibility albeit a small one of a moderate event.

Then, the question arises about a possible subsequent event during the middle or latter part of the first week of January. That event has the potential to be a larger event than the upcoming one.

Finally, whether or not December concludes with a light snow event, winter 2017-18 remains solidly in line for above to possibly much above normal snowfall. It wouldn't surprise me if a 4" or greater snowfall takes place prior to the pattern relaxation that is likely after the first week of January.

[Rtd208]

Cold night ahead, current temp is 19 here.

[doncat]

Aside from the big rain event to end Oct ( and it was big with 4+" of rain here) it's been devoid of big precip events since Sept...Monthly totals of 2" or less.